2022 will be remembered as the year that Pakistan saw a Prime Minister ousted by Parliament through a no-confidence motion for the very first time. That event proved seminal, for it led not only to an apparent violation of the Constitution by the Mr Khan and others, but it also led to a seminal confession by COAS Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa that the Army had become neutral, thus admitting by implication what was common knowledge: that it had routinely interfered in politics. One result was that it led to the convulsions in the Punjab, which meant that 2022 could well be called The Year of Three CMs (Usman Buzdar, Hamza Shehbaz and Ch Pervez Elahi), just as the year 68 is called the Year of Four Emperors in Roman history. It perhaps epitomises the instability of the country that there has been no settling down, and the Chief Ministership is once again in dispute, and before the Lahore High Court.
Behind Mr Khan’s ouster was the parlous state of the economy. That has not changed. 2022 has seen the rupee hit record lows against the dollar, and a global energy and foodstuff crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, with the conflict now dragging on, with no end in sight. As if that was bad enough, Pakistan also faced an exceptionally devastating monsoon flood, which some have rated the worst in its history. The bottom line is that the economy has not stabilized.
Unfortunately for Pakistan’s citizens, none of these crises show any sign of resolving themselves in 2023. Even if an Emergency is imposed, and federal elections postponed, and even if the PTI cannot dissolve the Punjab and KP Assemblies, there seems no way of putting off provincial elections, so the year will be an election year. Unfortunately, elections between two parties which are at daggers drawn, but neither of which seems to have any solution to the economic problem, are not likely lead to stability. At the same time, floods are likely to be as bad as this year’s, because of climate change. There is also a new covid wave engulfing China. It has spread to the USA, as well as neghbouring India. The government must prepare to face the pandemic at the same time as the floods. It is not a good outlook, and it is only the human sprit, and divine intervention, that will enable the country to surmount 2023. After all, that is how it got through 2022.
