Punjab’s problems antedated the fall of Imran Khan’s PTI government at the center. In fact, Mr Khan’s selection of Usman Buzdar as Chief Minister of the country’s largest province even though he lacked any previous ministerial experience, or possessed any other exceptional qualities, subjected Punjab to a wealth of poor governance. It was no help that when Mr Khan’s backers sought Mr Buzdar’s removal when he proved to be completely out of his depth, yet Mr Khan refused, only to summarily remove him and replace him by Ch Pervez Elahi, when it seemed he might himself be removed. Ch Pervez became CM by virtue of a court order, and his remaining in office is now once again before the Lahore High Court, which takes up the matter of his denotification by the Governor on Wednesday.
Because Ch Pervez alone can advise the dissolution of the Punjab Assembly, Mr Khan is in his hands. Until he dissolves, the KP Assembly will not dissolve. However, the relations between the two have begun to fray. Ch Pervez wants seat adjustments for the coming general elections. Mr Khan is not giving any. If Ch Pervez has to take the vote of confidence as requested by the Governor, PTI members are the ones who will give the slip, leading to his losing office. If there was a failure of the PML(Q) when the last voting for CM took place, this time, if there is any slip-up, it will be because of the PTI.
It should not be assumed that matters will be solved if Ch Pervez succeeds in obtaining a vote of confidence. Win or lose, the margin of victory for either side will be thin. The losing side will fall prey to the temptation of trying to win over the few MPAs it needs to topple the CM and install its own man. This is going to continue until the House is dissolved, and there is a caretaker CM in place. There is the example of Abdul Quddus Bizenjo, who was Balochistan CM for only six months in 2018; the present Punjab House has got more than eight months to run. Ch Pervez does not want to forgo this period, especially with the next budget coming up. His reluctance to dissolve the Assembly is shared by many PTI members, including those on the backbenches. It was the ‘betrayal’ of allies that cost Mr Khan the Prime Ministership. An ally may stop him play his last card, that of dissolving the assemblies.
