US withdrawal from Afghanistan had far reaching implications not just limited to the region but beyond the region. When it comes to the Af-Pak region it was most vulnerable to dramatic changes enabled by the US withdrawal. The rise in terrorism in Pakistan has seriously raised questions over Pakistan’s security and Afghan policy. But the resurgence of TTP and BLA is not the fall out of US withdrawal but is outcome of years long inflexible counter-terrorism policy and lack of implementation of designed policy. Pakistan is dealing with organized threats from across the spectrum be it far-left ethno centric BLA or Far-right TTP. Since 2019, there is a significant rise in terrorism. The dramatic rise in attacks both in terms of numbers and intensity has exposed the flaws in the prevailing framework. Multiple factors have contributed to this increase in the terrorism. First and foremost was the restructuring of TTP. TTP carried out structural reforms under the leadership of Noor Wali Mehsud. In the last two years, all major splinters groups have rejoined the umbrella of TTP.
This reunification diversified the resources and conventional capabilities paving way for expansion of areas of operations. Moreover, Noor Wali has also tried to change the outlook of the organization from far-right radical global Jihadist organization to more of a ethno-centric militant group having limited political and military goals. As a part of Rebranding drive ttp has restricted its activities. Bombing of Public places has been reduced and group attacks have largely been focused on security targets. Apart from these administrative and strategic overhauling the group also went under the modernization in the last couple of years. TTP has been able to get its hand on the latest weapons and ammunitions including night visions, M4 assault rifles, and much more. TTP is now the most prominent and immediate threat due to its new loosely connected networks spread across the country, particularly in KPK. The recent attack in Islamabad should serve as an eye opener to the security authorities; TTP has exhibited its capability to carry out high intensity sophisticated attacks deep inside urban centers of Pakistan. This has also highlighted the fact that TTP does not need any hard infrastructure inside Pakistan to carry out such highly sophisticated attacks. It’s a matter of debate whether the Afghan Taliban are Taliban 2.0 or not but this TTP is definitely 2.0 especially when talking about its rapid adaptation to changing security dynamics.
Historically, Pakistan and TTP’s high end war has always been around the corner of every futile peace dialogue. Though this time it was enabled by the new Interim Afghan Government, which for almost two years tried to mediate between TTP and Pakistan, evading its responsibility to act against the terrorists for using Afghan soil against neighboring country. Post-US withdrawal the prevailing idea in corridors of Islamabad that Interim Government (IEA) will dismantle TTP and others groups was never practical considering the bond between the IEA and TTP.
The fluid dynamics at the ground level were always going to create trouble not only for Pakistan but or IEA itself as well. Pakistan needs to politically and diplomatically tackle narrative of IEA that TTP is Pakistan’s internal issue despite TTP enjoying safe heavens in Afghanistan. The dealing should be based on state to state grounds pushing IEA to act as a mature state actor contributing positively to the regional security. Moreover, it is important for Pakistan to immediately adjust to the changing regional security dynamics and redesign the security framework and Counter terrorism policy. The national consensus is integral to counter terrorism policy.
The lack of clarity of the mainstream political parties and inconsistent and diverging approach towards the violence negatively contributes towards national resolve to deal with terrorism. Similarly, the overall mechanism shouldn’t be military centric.
The lack of clarity of the mainstream political parties and inconsistent and diverging approach towards the violence negatively contributes towards national resolve to deal with terrorism. Similarly, the overall mechanism shouldn’t be military centric. Political leadership should be more involved in these security matters so that an inclusive comprehensive long terms counter-terrorism policy could be designed. As per the report presented at National security committee CTD KPK overall budget is not even half of that of CTD Punjab. Even majority of which is spent on salaries leaving nothing behind for modernization that includes procurements and upgradation of hardware. This is despite the fact that KPK is on the front in this fight against Terrorism and CTD is acting as first line of defense. The overhauling and modernization should be the top priority and this could be achieved by monitoring the overall performance of the security institutions and analyzing their capabilities to w.r.t the evolving threats.
