The country seems to be up for more chaos, if not a complete breakdown of the system. The established order’s inability through its front men in the political system in power since April 2022 to reign in the economy, the polity has signaled escalation in the ongoing chaos. Despite that fact that the Pakistan Tehrik Insaf under Imran Khan seems like a spent bullet cartridge with no strike value, the continued pressure tactics employed by the incumbent administration seem hell-bent on creating a crisis out of nowhere. Despite the fact that the ‘apolitical posture’ seems the buzzword for the ‘compliant media’, all the ground facts point to new players groomed with ‘approval’.
Pakistan economically is in the middle of a do-or-die situation. With the election year already arrived of 2023, the overlapping of the political expediency of the incumbent with complete backing from the established order makes an ominous scenario where the stability of the system is likely to nosedive further.
The country seems to be bracing itself for the next scheduled general elections. The PPP is trying to curry favour with powers-that-be. The PML(N), not to be left behind in the race, is contemplating the return of its elite leadership back to the country. The PTI, despite being under extreme pressure, is trying to remain relevant to the developments taking place progressively.
However, the mood in the incumbent camp seems to be that of confrontation through the system. The renewed pressure on the opposition PTI, through the backing of the established order, in the form of elevation of the known detractors of the party, followed by what seems a new wave of political crackdown, only generates an uncontrollable confrontation scenario.
In 1990, when the establishment decided to punish the then PPP leadership under the late Benazir Bhutto, it installed the then caretaker CM of Sindh, late Jam Sadiq Ali, to unleash a crackdown. Regretably the incumbent PML(N) government at the centre is enacting the same. Here it is pertinent to point out that the PPP under BB was a very sober political entity. It never challenged the order, despite its reasons to do that. It faced unprecedented political repression during the 1990-1993 period, but bided its time. That period was also characterized by a somewhat stable economic situation. Pakistan was not cash strapped as now. The economy was growing at a tolerable “Hindu’ rate.
Today, any political crisis has the potential to engulf the economic crisis in a manner, where it would be next to impossible for the established order and the compliant political order to control the situation for long. As the words go to the press, a sort of crackdown is on the papers with the incumbents; which seems to be unnecessary. The system seems to be run on highly political lines. The power outage at the start of the week on Monday January 23, followed by key decisions expected about steering the economy out of the crisis, seems to be effectively overtaken by frivolous developments triggered by the political forces favoured by the established order.
It will take a heavy resolve of playing unconventionally by the PTI to change the political tide in 2023 and 2024, despite the brewing economic crisis. The Pakistani polity is ready for a change, despite the clean fact that it simply lacks the alert revolutionary cadre, which can read between the lines of the established order’s machinations. Failing which the chessboard as laid out by the established order will be enacted like a video game with fewer intervention options for the human player; except a captcha declaration that “I am not a Robot”.
Keeping in view the fact that the PTI has never sought to challenge the system with radical discourse, pretending to be overthrowing the system, yet playing by its rules; the dissolution of the two key assemblies, that of Punjab and PTI, have practically boomeranged on the party. The appointment of the key detractor of the party as the caretaker CM in Punjab, followed by other unfavourable appointments, has in effect dynamited the PTI plans to upstage the system. Even so -called political allies from Gujrat are found indulging in unguarded slips of tongue.
What seems to be the fallout is that PTI remains stranded in the political wilderness, with the establishment and its favourites displaced not even an inch from their respective stances and positions. If the intelligence agencies sleaze campaign has not caused a major shift in the public perception, it might have caused small dents in the perception of the second tier of party followers; the ‘sympathizers’.
As things stand, while the national crisis of ‘default’ seems to be ‘brewing’ out of control, the ‘order’ is in no hurry to address the same in the near future. There are few plausible causes for that contentment. Either the system has been assured that another IMF ‘drip injection’ is on its way and Pakistan will be again on its feet. The other scenario is that Pakistan through the good offices of the established order is able to find its relevance in another global war scenario; its favuorite pastime.
Given the fact that PTI played its cards with a very superficial thought process in mind, the established order is all set to have the resource commitments for Pakistan, not based on the 2023 elections, rather it is confident that it has the prerequisites for negotiating multiple lifelines for the country’s economy.
The emerging scenario strongly suggests that unless the key opposition party is able to think ‘creatively’ then it stands the chance of going into the political wilderness for a longer period. Furthermore the failure of the major opposition party in the political system, where former radicals like PPP have opted to be the ‘estate partners’ of the ‘established order’, the PML(N) just trying to reach the limits of opportunistic politicking, can unleash centrifugal tendencies in the polity and society.
The recent arm-flexing of the MQM; coincidently again with the nod of the establishment means that the people will be guided to think in ethnic, parochial or sectarian terms and not national terms; whose issues will be dealt with by the establishment like a merciful king. Similarly, frivolous religious disputes along sectarian lines are being encouraged to keep the various groups busy; a carbon copy implementation of the ‘divide and rule’ policy followed in Zia years.
With a practical return to Zia years, again complete with the upgraded versions of the ‘Ittefaq Foundry’, a great responsibility rests on the PTI, beyond its traditional role as a ‘professional political party’. Knowing well that it is on the firing line of the established order. It needs to review its policy of playing by the establishment as well as tolerating the seasoned political players. The Punjab experience might have made the PTI top leadership learn a few lessons in politics. The KPK scene, despite a home wicket scenario; but faced with Taliban militancy; almost daily killing of LEA officers, can be another place where the established order will not shy away to embarrass the party.
It will take a heavy resolve of playing unconventionally by the PTI to change the political tide in 2023 and 2024, despite the brewing economic crisis. The Pakistani polity is ready for a change, despite the clean fact that it simply lacks the alert revolutionary cadre, which can read between the lines of the established order’s machinations. Failing which the chessboard as laid out by the established order will be enacted like a video game with fewer intervention options for the human player; except a captcha declaration that “I am not a Robot”.
