Since the deadly earthquake hit the southern provinces of Turkey and western flank of Syria, there have been fears of a similar happening in west and south Asia; especially Pakistan. Given the fact that Turkey stands at a better human and infrastructural plane than Pakistan; the scale of devastation as well as the helplessness of the government in Turkey and Syria, there are fears; what will happen if asimilar mishap or catastrophe takes place in Pakistan.
Past experiences, starting from the 1973 and 1976 floods, the 1974 Karakoram earthquake, the 1992 limited floods, the 2005 massive earthquake, the 2010 river Indus floods and lastly the monsoon-triggered limited floods in south Punjab and Sindh in 2022; all cast a clear doubt in the minds of people; already on the edge.
It is imperative that developing economies’ governments, instead of investing in new weapons, may build up rescue infrastructures on priority basis. Likewise, a necessary regime change in priorities is needed. National security imperatives need to be debated and balanced with health infrastructures; whose utility is greater to reach out to people in distress in the aftermath of natural disasters
A threadbare analysis of the experiences can guide the author and the readers alike, as to what have been the missing points as well as deficiencies at hand; which force us to look elsewhere and in the process generate a gulf between the rulers and the ruled. Without doubt, the 1970 East Pakistan cyclone in the month of November can be the reference point for analysis, given the fact that the event, which took place over 50 years ago, was demonstrative of the fact among other things, how much the state of Pakistan was cash-strapped, and without any plan to reach out to the people in distress. The distress, which the students of history witnessed and documented, added to the already built-up alienation between the distant province and the centre in the case of Pakistan.
Taking a cue from the events in 1970, what was left of Pakistan was not to be spared by the cruel nature in the years to come. The 1973 floods in the country triggered by rains and other factors inundated much of the country; causing the transport to come to a standstill and forcing the government to make frantic plans for rescuing the flood-affected.
Here it may be noted that despite the availability of the resources of the three arms of the federally administered paramilitary forces, Pakistan Army Aviation Alouette helicopters were hard pressed to undertake rescue missions across a vast stretch of Sindh and Punjab. It may be pointed out that the fleet was just enough to cater to the demands of the time. Likewise, the extent of water spread in the area warranted use of fibreglass boats for the units of the Army sent to the areas under water. Pakistan being short in the supply of the inventory had to depend upon the assistance from the USA, being transported on board USAF C-141 military transport planes to select Pakistani aerodromes for speedy availability to the rescue teams.
The country had to face yet another devastating flood in 1976 that was as widespread as the 1973 one. The backup for the rescue efforts in terms of hardware did not witness any change. The country was saved much of trial during the 1980s and much of the 1990s. The 1992 floods were an isolated event in the Jhelum River, whose proper management was however an issue which needs to be discussed separately.
‘Pakistan First’s trial with a bigger catastrophe came in the form of the October 2005 earthquake as well as the 2010 floods along river Indus. The first catastrophe was a nightmare for the government as well as the people. For the then Musharraf government, basking in the fiscal space created by the ‘Paris Club’ debt rescheduling, it was a spectre of being in the ‘budgetary deficit’ regime again. The people, especially in the affected areas, were clueless about how to cope with the crisis.
Pakistan, totally unprepared for the ‘nature strike’, again was short of the hardware needed to ferry supplies to the affected areas. At that point of time the Coalition in Afghanistan in the aftermath of the fall of Taliban 1 government and consequent War on Terror was able to lend a few of its idle capacity flying machines to the Pakistanis. Indians ready to undertake a similar operation were politely declined by the then military dispensation.
In 2010, the flood along the banks of river Indus in much of KPK, Punjab and Sindh, put the country again in a catch 22 situation. Pakistan was forced to seek favours from the coalition again as well as friendly air force units for ferrying supplies to the flood-affected areas. It was not unusual to witness USAF Chinooks, CH 47 heavy duty Choppers, other USAF and US Marine assets, and UAE helicopters in Pakistani skies.
The reasons for that botheration and deficiency lay in the plain fact that the budgetary paradigms discussed and finalized between the civilian and the military stakeholders, never took into account the need for a search and rescue squadron or unit; or an equivalent to that.
An independent look at the rescue assets with Pakistani paramilitary will further vouchsafe the fact. Here it may be pointed out that after the October 2005 earthquake, in Pakistan administered Kashmir, the capital Muzaffarabad’s airport was totally damaged. The only option might have been loads of heavy-duty helicopters. However, the practical option left was that the PAF C-130 laden with relief cargo might have to swoop low over the damaged runway and drop the supplies at less than treetop level to get the work done.
Further insight into the budgetary outlay points out to the fact that health infrastructure has been another area hopelessly neglected. In case of any natural calamity, the health infrastructure can alleviate the pains of many as the first stop, for initial medical care. It has been the fact that in the 2005 earthquake at the onset of the winter in a region known to have harsh winters, and in the recent problems faced by flood -affected people in Sindh, the health system has been wanting.In the case of Kashmir in 2005, the military hospitals and field units came in handy. However, that has not been the case in Sindh.
The above makes it very clear that, given the economic crisis Pakistan is into, any dislocation in the budgetary outlay due to any crisis such as the one witnessed in Syria and Afghanistan, can weigh heavily on the Pakistani economy, society and consequently the Pakistani polity.
The options ahead might not be easy enough to be materialized at a very short notice. The availability of well-stocked search and rescue aviation squadrons with at least one of the arms of the military is an imperative. In today’s world, long wars are unlikely and mostly are degenerated into attrition. Investing in conflict might not be the desired option.
It is imperative that developing economies’ governments, instead of investing in new weapons, may build up rescue infrastructures on priority basis. Likewise, a necessary regime change in priorities is needed. National security imperatives need to be debated and balanced with health infrastructures; whose utility is greater to reach out to people in distress in the aftermath of natural disasters.
Pakistan is situated in the South Asian Subcontinent along major faults; whose expressions have been the world’s most important mountain ranges like the Himalayas, the Karakoram and the Hindu Kush, spread around Pakistan, causing earthquakes off and on. It is necessary that disaster management be given the due priority. Coupled with freak monsoons caused by global warming, seismic activity can be the other factor, which can put the Pakistani system to test; and consequently the public faith in governance.
