Iran is the western neighbour of Pakistan with 158 billion barrels of oil reserves and 34 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. However, the official bilateral trade of the both countries did not reach $2 billion. In September 2022, Pakistani and Iranian officials agreed to remove hurdles, increase bilateral legal trade and implement the barter agreement for achieving the target of $5 billion bilateral trade. Pakistan and Iran have maintained cordial relations since the Shah’s regime but after the Iranian Revolution many social, political, economic and security problems have arisen. Relations between Pakistan and Iran are poor due to the Saudi element, but Pakistan strives to remain neutral in its relations with both countries. Among other issues, the competition between Chabahar and Gwadar ports, and the slow progress in joint economic projects, are affecting their bilateral relations.
Both the countries have also expressed their willingness to set up an oil refinery in Balochistan with a capacity of 400,000 barrels of oil. In addition, Iran has offered Pakistan to increase its electricity imports from 100MW to 1,000MW and eventually 3,000MW. Since the nuclear deal Tehran has been used by Islamabad as a historic opportunity to expand bilateral ties and take advantage of a rising Iran in the region. The lifting of economic sanctions had opened new avenues for Iran to strengthen its economic and political power. This is time for Pakistan to strengthen its ties with its oil and gas rich neighbour and to mend the broken fences with Iran.
Therefore, it is time for Pakistan to formulate a pragmatic policy in view of the changing strategic dynamics in the region and expand its relations with Iran to protect its national security interests. The changing regional geopolitics and strategic dynamics may affect Pakistan; therefore, it should take advantage of Iran’s geostrategic position
The closest power source to Pakistan is already supplying 74 MW of power to Pakistan’s Makran division, while another 100 MW transmission line is under construction to Gwadar, Pakistan’s emerging economic hub. Iran has invested more than $2 billion in the agreed gas pipeline project, while Pakistan has yet to build the related infrastructure. Pakistan is understandably stuck in the balance of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Pakistan’s active participation in the Middle East security matrix is a manifestation of an important role for Pakistan.
Iran’s mobilization in Middle East security is a surprising development for traditional regional powers such as Egypt, Israel, and especially Saudi Arabia. Tehran is dominating the regional security matrix from Baghdad to Damascus, Beirut and Sana’a, forming a strong coalition to demonstrate its superiority.
Iranian military support for regimes in Iraq, Syria and Yemen has upset the traditional balance of power in the region. Furthermore, due to the lifting of sanctions, the Iranian economy is growing at a remarkable pace as many foreign companies are willing to invest in Iran. This development has spread panic in the Arab states.
The United Arab Emirates, originally a duty-free country, now imposes the tax because billions of dollars-worth of Iranian transactions flowed through the UAE during the sanctions. Saudi Arabia is facing a budget deficit. The regional landscape is fraught with foreign support for Iran in many ways. Turkey is preoccupied with its internal problems and is unwilling to confront Iran directly.
Russia supports the Assad regime, a strategic partner of Iran, with active military support. China is supporting Iran in trade, economy and investment. European states are eager to take advantage of the emerging economy, and the USA is forced to back Iran because of its geopolitical reach, political influence, and military might to defeat ISIS. Along with international support, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani had won strong domestic support in the 2016 parliamentary elections, giving him much-needed backing to pursue Iran’s diplomatic, political, and economic recovery.
There are two possibilities in this environment of regional security. The Iranian rise can be viewed positively and the gradual normalization of the region is seen as for the benefit of all, or the rise can be viewed negatively and as a result it increases the atmosphere of conflict. However, despite many attempts, the Assad regime has not been made to fall. The war in Yemen has failed to weaken the Houthi rebels, but rather has emboldened al-Qaeda and Iraq.
The 34-state alliance, despite the highly publicized ‘North Thunder’ military exercise, has failed to have a significant impact on regional dynamics as key states Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan are unwilling to contribute their forces. Currently, the national, regional and international political environment favours Iran. Therefore, it would be better to consider the rise of Iran as a positive development and to work for peace, development and stability in the region.
After the end of the Iranian nuclear saga, Pakistan can easily and cheaply harness its southwestern neighbour’s energy resources to maximize its economic growth. Furthermore, Pakistan has the ability and courage to address the lack of communal trust in the Muslim world, particularly in the Middle East.
Pakistan should use its diplomatic good offices to remove the obstacles impeding the political and economic development of the region. Pakistan can play a constructive role between Iran and Saudi Arabia to eliminate their unwanted hostile regional policies.
Therefore, it is time for Pakistan to formulate a pragmatic policy in view of the changing strategic dynamics in the region and expand its relations with Iran to protect its national security interests. The changing regional geopolitics and strategic dynamics may affect Pakistan; therefore, it should take advantage of Iran’s geostrategic position.
