With the incumbent governors not giving any definite dates for the provincial elections in Punjab and KPK in the follow up of the PTI inspired dissolutions of 2018 elected assemblies, the ECP has taken the federal government line and the President of Pakistan; the nominee of the last government at the centre, calling for the election. It can be termed the best possible quagmire scenario, any system of government might ask for.
There are divisions within the two brothers in a political party, the GHQ that always takes credit for maintaining law and order is shy to lend support for the expected elections asked for by the situation. Practically that sort of running of the government in day to day as well as macro-affairs point towards, what any political science student would term that; ‘it is next to impossible to run the federation’. That sentence has been frequently used in many a dissolution of government orders when Artcle 58 (2b) was enforced via the 1973 amended Constitution during much of the 1990s.
However, as things stand, Pakistan is all but a physical existence, where the tiers of governance have failed miserably; be it management of the economy, political deadlocks or even the maintenance of the law and order situation. Within months the strikes on two major provinces’ police installations is reflective of the administrative disarray that seems to have held the whole country hostage.
Towards that end, the stakes the internal establishment have on the country, and those of the international establishment, might not allow the developments to linger on endlessly. A sort of corrective action like the one adopted in 1993, when the stakes were not that high, might be needed now with a few amendments; courtesy the new realities. It remains to be seen, when the bell tolls for setting into motion the awaited ‘corrective action’.
To begin with, the question of economy is directly linked to the return of normalcy in the polity and society. With political temperatures showing no signs of going down, the game-changing investment decisions are being put on hold. The economic managers, instead of imagining the need to restore the investor confidence, are geared towards borrowing more to ‘pretend’ that the show is still running. The result of that fractured approach is that the IMF is increasingly holding the economy hostage. The results; an already high-cost economy is being gradually transformed into an economy which can only qualify as a sitting duck in a free-trade WTO-based world trade regime!
Looking at the developments taking place for the last one year, it has been literally a cat and mouse game between the established order via PDM and the PTI, which fell from the grace of that very established order. The early few months until autumn gave a semblance of a massive political change, which might have the potential to undo the state structure Pakistan inherited from the British in 1947. The tone of the former PM was to offer something like the Pakistani version of the Russian or Iranian revolutions. However as the dust settled, especially in the run-up of the selection of the new Army chief, it transpired that there was no revolution on the anvil, but it was the matter of who was able to survive under the existing circumstances and rules of business.
How much the face-off with reality wore away the support base of the former Prime Minister, is open to question and cannot be verified in a media infested with either party’s spokesmen posing as ‘senior sahafis’. However, if for the common Pakistani, the routine political maneuvering should have been kept at a low temperature level, what has happened is that the whole political drama is being conducted as a somewhat ‘high-voltage’ thriller, with apparent complete support from the powers that be. The result has been a complete breakdown of any unifying influence in the society. Rather the society is more polarized than one can ‘safely’ imagine.
Talking of the quagmire; early, the stance taken by the President speaks of a political worker first, then the symbol of federation. Similarly a party-worker stance taken by the Congress-nominated president Dr Fakhreddin Ahmed during the 1975 Emergency in India, might not cost him his post but his political career for all times to come. Likewise the unexplainable delay in the constitutional electoral process by the federation; this time the symbols of federation in the federating units called governors are representing the PDM and are not serious in setting the dates of the expected elections.
As things stand; two different set of symbols of federation; the President representing the PTI and the Governors representing the PDM coalition at the centre are leading the country towards a quagmire of sorts. The original chaos generated due to either side failing to talk to each other; and secondly, a subjective implementation of the Constitution by both the PDM Governors and the PTI President.
Pakistan, as the result of the political crisis, which is in place for the last ten months, is actually depicting the picture of what can be said as ‘federation is ceasing to work efficiently’. If one includes the Tarin-Taimoor Jhagra episode over the IMF talks, then one can only lament at the political state of affairs, where a federating unit is least sympathetic to the centre for issues involving ‘national interest’.
The million Dollar question at this moment is what is the way out? The change of mood of the establishment, the proactive stance of the judiciary, or the public at large taking the things into their own hands.
The first scenario does not seems viable; on the single count that after the much-trumpeted presser of the chief intelligence officer, the establishment made its stance very clear. Its refusal to lend support for the electoral process has been the second indicator that it is trying to get out of the circus, but in a rather clumsy manner.
The judiciary; which is expected to be dragged into the deadlock for its valued opinion, will be hard pressed to make a judgement, in a manner that the federation is back on the track. Here it is pertinent to note that the developing situation is reminiscent of June/July 1993, when judgements and counter-stays finally forced the then disinterested establishment to intervene and put the federation in order. Coincidentally at that point of time, the economy was again in shambles and the intervention was made a good use by the IMF too.
It remains to be seen if any section of the established order is looking at the things from that angle too. Consequently, much of the dust will settle as things worsen. The intervention might be under duress, not for the love of the nation-state but for the interests of the players.
Finally, the intervention of the public. That has been a big question since the last time in 1968 during the Ayub era; the common person came out on the street, to a lesser degree against Bhutto in 1977 and to a varying degree in support of the lawyers’ movement in 2007 in March onwards. The PTI seems to have pinned its hopes on the Jail Bharo Tehrik in a desperate bid to take people out on the street, in a society, which to date is divided and fragmented on various counts.
It will be a near miracle, if the last option is taken, of people taking the situation into their own hands irrespective of the political divide. The adjustment spirit among the common person for the inflationary pressures puts a damper on such a miraculous eventuality. A single-party court-arrest campaign might not generate the necessary steam to upend the system. An across-the-board anger at the system might yield results, which still seems out of question.
Towards that end, the stakes the internal establishment have on the country, and those of the international establishment, might not allow the developments to linger on endlessly. A sort of corrective action like the one adopted in 1993, when the stakes were not that high, might be needed now with a few amendments; courtesy the new realities. It remains to be seen, when the bell tolls for setting into motion the awaited ‘corrective action’.
