Washington Watch
As Russia’s devastating war in Ukraine is entering its second year, with no end in sight, serious questions must be asked about the way forward.
One year ago, I faulted Europeans for not taking President Biden’s early warnings more seriously and for failing to act more vigorously to forestall a hostile Russian invasion. But five months later, in July 2022, when it became clear to me that there was no good outcome to this war, I wrote the following:
“Only naive souls or blind ideologues could have thought that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine would end well. It will not. And the longer it continues, the worse the situation will be for everyone … The reality is that no one can or will win this war.”
Seven months later, the toll tells the story. US government sources estimate that more than 130,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or severely wounded. Estimates of Russian military casualties number between 150,000–200,000, with at least 60,000 of that total reflecting those killed — more than doubling the number of Russian soldiers killed in Afghanistan and Chechnya combined.
The impact on the Ukrainian people and economy has been even more consequential. The Ukrainian GDP declined by one-third. They’ve lost more than 40 percent of their electricity-generating capacity. And more than 8.5 million Ukrainians have been forced to flee their country to the West, with many more internally displaced as a result of widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure. As a result, Ukraine has become dependent on the West not only for weapons, but also for economic subsidies to pay their military, government entities, and basic services.
Because the war has not come home, Russians have been spared the death and devastation they have visited upon their neighbours. Sanctions imposed by the West have had an impact, but the Putin government has not only been able to draw on reserves to buttress the economy, but has also found ways to circumvent sanctions to maintain a profitable, though diminished, level of exports and imports. As a result, the Russian economy shrank far less than expected in 2022, with the IMF even predicting some slight growth in 2023. And instead of mobilizing the world against Russian aggression, the war has accentuated the preexisting divide between East and West, North and South.
A year into this war, several developments should be noted. Most important among them is the fact that it has become an existential conflict for all parties involved. Ukrainian nationalism has proven to be a far more potent force than expected. Motivated by that deeply held belief and emboldened by Western military and political support, Ukrainian leaders now pledge to continue fighting until Russian forces are removed from “every square inch” of their territory.
Year two of this war promises only more death and destruction. None of the major parties show signs of losing their resolve. If anything, attitudes among hawks in Russia, the US, and Ukraine have hardened, convinced that more arms and better strategy are all that is needed to win. And so, it continues.
Russia initially projected the view that Ukraine was an artificial and even “illegitimate” country, and sought to bring down its leadership through a devastating “shock and awe” assault. When that goal became unattainable, they settled on claiming their right to annex territories in the Eastern part of Ukraine that are heavily Russian-speaking. Having been forced to surrender control in some of the areas they had initially occupied and now ground down in deadly combat on several fronts, Mr. Putin is loath to relinquish more territory or admit defeat fearing a threat to his leadership and vision of Russian destiny.
The USA and its Western allies have also dug themselves into a rhetorical hole. Early on President Biden sounded like a mix of Churchill and Reagan, mobilizing the USA and Western European opinion to join this battle to save democracy and freedom from authoritarian aggression and assuring everyone not only that it would be won, but also that it must be won. And at a recent European security conference the German Foreign Minister upped the ante, declaring that anything short of a Russian defeat would mean “the end of the international order and the end of international law.”
Now one year after it began, the battle has not been won and all signs point to it continuing. The main combatants have shown remarkable resilience. The USA and its allies are pouring new and more lethal weapons into Ukraine. Thus supplied, the Ukrainians are gearing up for a new offensive. And the Russians are holding their own, determined to commit new atrocities to weaken Ukrainian resolve.
The problem, of course, is that more weapons or more battlefield losses will not end this war with all parties still believing they can and must be victorious.
Some additional cautionary signs ahead:
– Russia has augmented its weapons with inferior, though still lethal, supplies from Iran and North Korea. Should the vastly superior weapons from the USA and NATO allies prove impactful, will China respond to Russian appeals for assistance?
– After initially welcoming fleeing Ukrainians, European support for refugees is showing signs of diminishing because of the economic and social costs. Will this grow?
– While Biden initially found bipartisan support for Ukraine, recent polling shows an emerging partisan split, with Republicans and some Democrats questioning the Administration’s requests for additional aid. Will this tie the Administration’s hands moving forward?
– Given the Western European economic downturn, who will pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction at war’s end?
Against this backdrop, year two of this war promises only more death and destruction. None of the major parties show signs of losing their resolve. If anything, attitudes among hawks in Russia, the US, and Ukraine have hardened, convinced that more arms and better strategy are all that is needed to win. And so, it continues.
