The government has got something of a credibility problem, because its Finance Minister keeps on saying that a deal on the release of the next tranche of the current IMF programme is around the corner, but some new deal-breaker turns up. The latest stutter is being caused by the failure of certain friendly countries to provide clarity about their lending. These are the countries Pakistan had said were waiting for the IMF tov give clearance to open the floodgates of funds. The failure of these countries to make clear what funds they will make available and how, is what is apparently holding back the IMF.
That is not the only example of the IMF being blamed for something it never did. The IMF, for example, says it has not raised the issue of the missile programme. This gives rise to the suspicion that when the Finance Minister said it had done so, he had merely been casting about for an explanation of why the IMF was not coming through on the programme resumption even though the government had taken the difficult steps it wanted. The IMF has also strongly denied that it has vetoed the Punjab and KP elections, saying that the money for them could be raised by such means as extra taxation. In short, it is not willing to be used as an excuse for the postponement of elections, which the government wants, and the opposition strongly opposes.
It would seem that there is a lesson to be drawn from all this. The government must not expect the IMF to pull its chestnuts out of the fire. It should also not expect statements by the Finance Minister (of which there have been plenty, probably already too many), that the IMF agreement is around the corner, to be believed. Now that the IMF has confirmed that there are third, even fourth, parties who can veto the deal, there does not seem much chance of it going through. It was enough of a problem when there were only two parties, the IMF and Pakistan, but now it means extra efforts and hard work by those who are going to be lending Pakistan money. Under such circumstances, the canny businessman will have no choice but to assume that the deal is not going through. This may have calamitous consequences for Pakistan, but that does not concern the IMF more deeply than Pakistan’s missile programme or its holding provincial elections.
