With the three-member bench judgement passed in favour of the elections for the recently dissolved assemblies of Punjab and KPK, elected to power in July 2018 elections; the stage is set for half of the country going for polls. However, what is evident is that the incumbent government in Islamabad is set to deal with a situation.
The state of affairs clearly suggests that the incumbent set up might not be comfortable with the judgement and may try to create fissures as much as they can to twist, if not frustrate, the decision, which they feel has been triggered by what they call a ‘compromised court’, as the time advances towards the D-day, May 14, for the elections for the dissolved Punjab Assembly seats.
For the PTI, the stage is set; provided it can think beyond just the survival within the system; to honestly upturn the system. For the traditional players like PPP and PML(N), it is the new world, they must adjust to. However, the depressing reality is that all the players are likely to further dent the system in a feverish fight over control of resources. As earlier said, the path from here goes towards a big political earthquake. The continental plates of that earthquake and its depth are in the hands of the masses; provided they perceive they have enough at the receiving end and they cannot take more!a
As the developments filter in at the time of finalizing this analysis, the political analysts strongly fear that the government might try to play the ‘national security’ card to postpone elections. The hurriedly convened National Security Committee meeting is likely to deliberate on the abovementioned postponement, as is feared. In case the military decides to side with the incumbent, whose chances remain strong. Under Article 232 of the 1973 Constitution the incumbent established order can impose emergency, given the fact that the sitting President has known sympathies with the previous government/current opposition. It means that the Emergency Proclamation has an opponent within the system, if such option is toyed with. Most likely it would be a difficult nut to crack.
The situation as is evident can still get out of control. Given the fact that unstable polities elsewhere have generated quick snap polls, such polls despite all the odds have never been avoided. Needless to say, the Iranian and Indian models; the states distrusted by the Pakistani established order; have advocated snap polls, whatever be the situation.
First the Iranian example. The Iranian parliament impeached the first President of the republic over what the House felt was a dismal performance on the war front, with many major cities still under Iraqi siege. Iranian Parliament went to snap polls in October 1981 to fill the seats vacated when two dozen members of parliament lost their lives as the result of the June 1981 wave of bomb blasts and assassinations. It staged direct franchise Presidential elections in August 1981 in the aftermath of the outgoing president’s impeachment; only to lose the President-elect in yet another terrorist strike. The third election of the year, electing the succeeding president on the same date as of the above-mentioned parliamentary vote. That period was replete with external and internal threats any nation-state can think of.
India for that matter had a phase of minority Left alliances in the mid-1990s. Even the BJP government formed out of hung parliaments in the late 1990s and early new millennium were shaky. One such government lasted only for 13 days; pushing the country towards another snap poll. At no point the Supreme Court or the defence establishment were quoted or referred to by any stakeholder. The parties and the Electoral College fine-tuned themselves soon to elect governments with enough votes to form independent governments.
Here it is worthy to note that the PTI political strategy has a resemblance with what the Baath, an Arab revolutionary vanguard party of the 1950s and 1960s, and the Turkish Islamists, undertook. It ensured to infiltrate institutions to place key persons at key jobs. A feat again performed by the Turkish Gulenist movement during the first decade of the new millennium, when it had not fallen out with Tayyab Erdogan. AS things stand in Pakistan; the incumbent President remains an obstacle for the incumbent Parliament.
It is a perfect hotchpotch ‘imagined’. That hotchpotch in fact defines much of the politically high temperatures witnessed in the country. The holding of the electoral process or otherwise has preoccupied much of the able voters; having sympathies for this party or that party in the current political divide. The same sentiments, literally ‘unplugged’, have been witnessed in the social media; where 5G reporting seems to have overtaken the decent times practice of ‘filing a story’.
With the judgement from a three-member bench; which was formed and disbanded many times, the sanctity of its universal acceptability has been a question mark right from the onset. The 5G reporting as well as ‘keyboard’ political activism had conveniently tarnished the image of the apex judicial forum in the country.
A phenomenon; which is potentially a bad development. In other words, it means that each political party has identified individuals within the institutions, with whom they are comfortable to work with. Initially in parliamentary democracy, the president of the federation is the last signpost; with whom any leader of the hHuse can demand to be comfortable with. The other institutions like the federally administered armed forces or the judiciary are out-of-bounds areas, as they are national assets and not any particular party’s assets. Any claims of support can dangerously push the country towards factionalism within the administrative structures and institutions.
The forces behind the scene have credible stakes in what happens outwardly, as they feel humiliated by the former comrades; the PTI. It is very much possible that the electoral process is stalled indefinitely; a whole new setup is conceived and finally the on-ground situation on the economic front and the security situation are exploited to achieve the results.
As discussed earlier; the current prolonged episode of stagflation has hit the national interests more than one can imagine. The Damocles’ sword of actual or perceived default, the standstill of economic activity and the resultant slide of so many people going below the poverty line has dented the common Pakistani’s faith in the system itself. It would not be out of context to say that Tsarist Russia, wounded from a senseless WWI, was like a ripe fruit for both Mensheviks, the moderate political forces and Bolsheviks, the radical alternative, to make the most of the situation.
While the country’s decision-making elite, might prioritize the ‘smart turnout’ as a benchmark of professionalism; or civic senses like the proverbial ‘cake’ advocated by Marie-Antoinette, the common man’s mind is not where the above mentioned elite might not set foot into.
For the PTI, the stage is set; provided it can think beyond just the survival within the system; to honestly upturn the system. For the traditional players like PPP and PML(N), it is the new world, they must adjust to. However, the depressing reality is that all the players are likely to further dent the system in a feverish fight over control of resources. As earlier said, the path from here goes towards a big political earthquake. The continental plates of that earthquake and its depth are in the hands of the masses; provided they perceive they have enough at the receiving end and they cannot take more!
