Security risks, opportunities for CPEC in wake of terrorist attacks in central African Republic

In the early morning of March 19th, 2023, an armed attack occurred at a Chinese-operated mining site (Gold Cost Group) in the southern part of Bambari, in central Central African Republic, resulting in the death of 9 Chinese citizens and the injury of 2 others.

The company, primarily made up of people from Guangxi and Hunan provinces in China, had casualties exclusively from Guangxi, with the owner currently in critical condition. While no organization has claimed responsibility for the attack, reports suggest that the local anti-government militia group, the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), which has connections to former president Francois Bozize, is suspected to be involved.

On March 13th of this year, the Chinese embassy in Central African Republic issued a security alert, warning of frequent security incidents in the country’s outlying provinces, with foreigners being kidnapped by local armed groups. Currently, there are a large number of Chinese companies and nationals engaged in mining activities in Central African Republic, facing extremely serious security challenges. It is necessary to intensify efforts to ensure the safety of overseas interests.

The incident raises concerns about the security situation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that aims to connect Gwadar Port in southwestern Pakistan to China’s northwestern region of Xinjiang via a network of highways, railways, and pipelines.

The CPEC passes through Pakistan’s Balochistan province, which has been plagued by separatist insurgency and terrorist attacks for years. The incident in the Central African Republic serves as a warning that security risks may also be present in countries along the BRI routes. As a result, it is important to strengthen security measures along the CPEC and other BRI routes, as well as to improve local security conditions through economic development and social stability.

The CPEC is facing numerous challenges in its implementation, including security concerns, political instability, and economic barriers. In particular, the security situation in Pakistan has been a major obstacle, with frequent incidents of terrorism and violent attacks targeting both Chinese and Pakistani nationals working on CPEC projects. Moreover, the economic situation in Pakistan has been declining, with a large trade deficit and high levels of debt, which further complicates the implementation of CPEC projects.

The challenges facing CPEC are closely related to the overall economic situation in Pakistan. The country’s economy has been struggling in recent years, with high levels of inflation, a large current account deficit, and declining foreign reserves. Additionally, Pakistan’s political situation has been unstable, with frequent changes in government and corruption allegations against politicians and government officials. These issues have made it difficult for the government to attract foreign investment and improve the business environment.

The construction of the CPEC is of great importance to Pakistan’s economic development. The corridor, which is a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, aims to connect Gwadar Port in southwestern Pakistan to China’s northwestern region of Xinjiang via a network of highways, railways, and pipelines. This will not only provide China with a shorter and more convenient route to the Arabian Sea but will also greatly benefit Pakistan’s economy by creating job opportunities, boosting infrastructure development, and increasing foreign investment.

Additionally, the CPEC has the potential to improve the energy crisis in Pakistan, as the corridor includes several energy projects that will help to overcome Pakistan’s power shortages. Overall, the CPEC has been viewed as a game-changer for Pakistan’s economy and is expected to have a significant impact on the country’s development in the years to come.

If Pakistan’s economic situation continues to deteriorate, it may have negative impacts not only on Pakistan, but also on China’s investment and interests in the country, particularly the CPEC project. Therefore, it is in the interest of both China and Pakistan to prevent this from happening. China could offer assistance to Pakistan to address its economic challenges, such as through extending loans, investing in new infrastructure projects, and providing technical expertise in areas such as agriculture and industry. China could also encourage other countries to invest in Pakistan, which would diversify its sources of investment and reduce its reliance on China.

In addition, China could work with Pakistan to improve governance and reduce corruption, which would help to create a more attractive environment for foreign investors. China could also support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises in Pakistan, which would create more jobs and help to promote economic growth. Last but not least, it is important for China to continue its commitment to the CPEC project and to support Pakistan’s economic development, as this will not only benefit Pakistan, but also promote regional stability

Xinyi Du & Fei Yang, authors of the article, are scholars of Baize Institute for strategy studies, Southwest University of Political Science and Law, P. R. China.

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