Pakistan is currently going through the throes of its political rebirth; to sum up in a few words. No one can deny the fact that the arrangements among the political elite, finalized consciously or accidentally during the formative years of the country, have effectively fallen flat.
The sacred cows of yesteryear are open to censure. The strides in technology; most notably the availability of social media platforms and compliant gadgets; have made it easy for the proverbial ‘subjects’ to take on the ‘rulers’ as they like to. The political developments in April 2022, and an almost stalemate-like position for the last one year, have further radicalized the national narrative. Today, with few amendments in the individual party narratives; ‘establishment bashing’ is the one which sells at the ballot.
Even the PDM component, the PML(N), that used the established order node to upstage the PTI, feels that its post-1999 anti-establishment narrative can sell well to make it reach the Treasury benches. The sole reason behind Nawaz Sharif toying with the idea of a return to the country revolves around the fact, undoing the damage inflicted by his younger brother, the incumbent Prime Minister. The three-time PM hopes that his presence will enable his party to construct a counter narrative vis-à-vis the now estranged establishment party, the PTI.
What can be the take-home for the established authorities? A complete surrender and handing over the power to civilian supremacy. Alternatively, a new rewriting of the rules of arrangements. With the left and any other radical movement out of the contest, regional and religious pressure groups micromanaged by the inter-services sleuths, the second option; that of rewriting of the rules can be the viable option. The fact of the matter is that both the right-of-centre leaning cats are not ready to permanently alienate the monkey, who will divide the spoils
The emerging scenario clearly suggests that the political war is between the two right-of- centre parties. The left, ever represented by the Pakistan People’s Party, is long out of the race and so is the leftwing intellectual cadre. Much of the ‘bereaved’ can be found either in the non-government organizations (NGOs) or in media groups; or finding common cause with this or that ‘mother tongue’.
Few have felt that a party like PTI couild cater to their worldview. However, the leftwing narrative is buried for times to come. Very much like the Reform narrative has become irrelevant in neighbouring Iran with the conservatives decamping with much of the ‘reformist’ wardrobe.
With the PPP effectively torpedoed by its leadership in the post-Benazir period from having any effective national role; it is actually a fight between the two right of centre parties, hoping to take the country into the new world realities in their own way. There can be many arguments about the PPP constitutional maturity and its ability to look beyond the obvious. The sad reality is that during the last ten years in its home province Sindh; it has delivered little to inspire the voters elsewhere to consider PPP for a federal role.
Coming back to the argument of how the political forces will be lined up for taking the top slot; a closer look suggests that it will be just a change of tag for the enthusiastic voter and a facelift for the political analysts. Here it is important to note that the task entrusted to the PTI in 2018 was in fact similar to what the IJI and th PML(N) did in 1990 and 1997. The established order for all practical purposes has been very comfortable with the right-of- centre parties. It is no secret that the religious parties like Jamaat Islami; the party of urban Islamists, has provided much of the fodder to the right wing parties making it to the federal capital. Many a top leaders and activists in the two parties can be traced back to their origins in the Jamaat.
Here it may not be out of context to mention that despite its opposition to the idea of a separate homeland by seemingly secular leadership of Muslims of India under the Quaid-i- Azam, the Jamaat had found common cause with the established order now and then. The biggest theatre in the 1970s was East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. In 1979, the Jamaat again came to the rescue of the CIA and the ISI to find compliant Afghan combatants. The very reason people like late Ahmad Shah Masoud drifted to Iranians, finding common cause with incumbent Quds Chief Ismail Qani and the late Qasem Soleimani, as narrated by Arash Aziz in his book, The Shadow Commander, during much of the 1980s and 1990s. The cause of that has been Pakistan ‘s exclusive love for Gulbadin Hekmatyar and then the much-touted Taliban.
The particular worldview of the Jamaat has resonated well with the narratives espoused by the PML(N) and PTI from time to time. Apparently, hawkish stances in foreign policy, a general antipathy towards anything irreligious, has been the sample narrative of the two rightwing parties. The use of religious references and symbols have reinforced an image of the two parties; that if finding the opportunity, they would not hesitate to unveil what they perceive of Pakistan. In the early years of politics, Nawaz Sharif along with the JI espoused a narrative which opposed any public office for the women; a straight referral to the late Benazir Bhutto. Likewise, the Shariat Bill fiasco too was the brainchild of the PML.
The hawkish stances by both parties have been exploited to the hilt, connecting them with real time happenings. The PML(N) to this day, owns and politically exploits its decision to detonate six nuclear devices on 28 May 1998. Likewise, the PTI defends its record with occasional social media referrals; weaving a narrative, that Imran Khan said ‘fire’ to the PAF when asked about the intruding Indian Air Force Jets, the desired course of action in the aftermath of the Pulwama, Balakot and 27 February 2019 incidents.
The PTI, during its formative years, has provided the alternate option for primarily PML(N) voters to change options. Its formal political marriage under the auspices of ‘hybridism’ reinforced its rightwing credentials more forcefully. The airing of Turkish drama serials about the founder of the Ottoman Empire, whose each episode includes at least one decapitation, has found much fervour in the PTI cadre observed in social media; having PTI tags, Ertughral tags and somewhat religiously intolerant sectarian tags.
Much of the PML(N) narrative has targeted precisely the same sections of society; which have been later targeted by the PTI. While the PML(N) has been able to mask its real intent; the PTI narrative characteristics has been the ‘abusive’, ‘Shock & Awe’, to borrow a term from the US Iraq campaign. Regretfully, the Islamist bent of both the parties has resulted in a trigger-happy resort to ‘below the belt’ narratives to embarrass the opponent.
Taking the debate a bit further; what can be the take-home for the established authorities? A complete surrender and handing over the power to civilian supremacy. Alternatively, a new rewriting of the rules of arrangements. With the left and any other radical movement out of the contest, regional and religious pressure groups micromanaged by the inter-services sleuths, the second option; that of rewriting of the rules can be the viable option. The fact of the matter is that both the right-of-centre leaning cats are not ready to permanently alienate the monkey, who will divide the spoils.
The likely scenario seems like a compromise formula acceptable to all. Here it may be noted that the USA’s and Chinese control of decision-making processes in Pakistan will certainly be reflected in days to come. With the society already divided, right up to a divided judiciary, various factions here and there will have an impact on the future course of action. No one wants Pakistan on the deathbed. However, the move forward will be a more jingoistic narrative. Any party winning the imagination or approval of the established order will certainly seek complete control; be it the PTI or PML(N). Given the democratic cultural traditions of the Right, the resultant ‘morning’ or sehar as imagined by late Faiz Ahmad Faiz, after the 2023 elections will be as dark as one can simulate under given parameters.
