The rise of China has forced the West to devise strategies to retain world leadership, or at least be major players in the future. West feels that a democratic, capitalist and economically resurgent India is their natural ally in this struggle against communist China. Therefore, despite its massive human rights violations, the West continues to support India. A strong India not only helps in containment of China but also possible de-nuclearization of Pakistan, the only Muslim nuclear country, through its balkanization. Therefore, the West and its allies are fully supporting India to become an economic and military regional power.
How would a strong India treat its neighbouring region, specially Pakistan, the Middle East and the Central Asian Republics (CARs)? India has the World’s third largest armed fForces. The bulk of these are deployed against Pakistan. None of India’s large mechanized forces can be used against China due to the Himalayas. Indian future behaviour can be predicted from its emerging military capabilities and past employment of its armed forces against its neighbours. India militarily invaded Kashmir in October 1947 and since then is in perpetual occupation against multiple UN resolutions. It militarily annexed Junagadh and Hyderabad (Deccan) in November 1947 and September 1948 respectively, followed by Goa in 1961.
Through employment of its armed forces it captured erstwhile East Pakistan in 1971 and annexed Sikkim in 1975. It intervened militarily in Sri Lanka from 1987-90 and in the Maldives in 1988. The rise of India and its track record of using military instruments to further its policies does not augur well for the regional countries. When Indians look at the Middle East and the CARs, they see oil-rich, sparsely populated and militarily weak countries. History has many examples where strong countries always found reasons to occupy or dominate economically prosperous, resource-rich but militarily weak neighbours. Indian interests in the region are not hidden. Th3n Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, while addressing senior military officers in 2004, said, “Our strategic footprint covers the region bounded by the Horn of Africa, West Asia (Middle East), CARs, Afghanistan and South Asia, and beyond to the far reaches of the Indian Ocean.”
Pakistan is the only hurdle to these aggressive Indian designs. Pakistan is like a dam, holding back a billion -plus Indians from coercing the /middle East and CARs into subjugation. Therefore, Indian strategic thinkers openly advocate balkanization of Pakistan into weak client states. Pakistan in future, will play the same role in the east for the Muslim world against India as Ottomans played in the west against Europe. See what happened to the Middle East and CARs once the Ottomans became weak and then collapsed. The CARs were occupied by Russia and the Middle East carved into multiple weak client states after World War I. The Western world has trampled and exploited the Middle East’s Muslim countries, at will since the demise of the Ottomans.
Nuclear Pakistan with a strong economy is a guarantor of sovereignty of Middle Eastern countries and the CARs. Unfortunately, there are certain people in and outside Pakistan, who in the name of religion (TTP), sub-nationalism or political gains are pursuing the agenda of substantially weakening or balkanization of the country. They are either deliberately or inadvertently advancing the Indian agenda. During World War I, Arabs revolted against Turkey in the name of regional sovereignty (Lawrence of Arabia may be remembered).
India has a very poor track record of dealing with its neighbours. The Indian rise as a powerful state is a fact and its associated implications for the region cannot be overlooked. Though China has also risen as a World power, it has to be understood that China’s strategic heartland is along the Pacific due to the location of the bulk of its population and major industrial areas.
Historically, China has never ventured militarily beyond its geographical boundaries. The Indian heartland, economic interests and long coast line makes it a southern and western Asia-centred country.
Nuclear Pakistan with a strong economy is a guarantor of sovereignty of Middle Eastern countries and the CARs. Unfortunately, there are certain people in and outside Pakistan, who in the name of religion (TTP), sub-nationalism or political gains are pursuing the agenda of substantially weakening or balkanization of the country. They are either deliberately or inadvertently advancing the Indian agenda. During World War I, Arabs revolted against Turkey in the name of regional sovereignty (Lawrence of Arabia may be remembered). Resultantly Muslim rulers (Turks) were replaced by European hegemony and Israeli humiliation was planted in their midst.
If ever the misguided groups working against Pakistan are successful, the whole region would go under Indian hegemony. Anti-Muslim policies of BJP and their quest for revenge from Muslim ‘invaders’ must be kept in mind. The Muslim world and the people of Pakistan must realise that only Pakistan can provide a counterbalance to future Indian designs in the region.
