The Supreme Court seems to have adjourned for a long time the proceedings on key cases; presumably under the influence of the environment prevailing in the country since the second week of May 2023. Likewise, the expected general elections; which were supposed to be held in August 2023, for which the required dissolution of the assembly and the caretaker government was an imperative; is nowhere to be found in the expected timeline of the country’s political calendar.
The scene in the country’s political, economic and social landscape can be best encapsulated as the title of a movie with a slight twist; it is ‘All Quiet on the Internal Front’. Such political stalemate is unique in the history of the country, where a mix of a political quagmire and the clash of egos has set the country on a path, a suicidal path. Such quagmires have been the part and parcel of many nation-states the world over, with Pakistan no noble exception. Referral to the constitutional document has been the first and the last resort for problem solving. Further, the quagmires have always emanated from personality clashes, clashes of interest and so on.
Proverbially we live among the ‘silent lambs’ yet a few lambs need to have horns like the Zodiac sign of Aries to make the point heard. Invariably the country has the potential to rise impressively provided the minds are set free proverbially and in hard truth. Pakistan needs to say ‘farewell’ to the regimented style of governance for good
The current stalemate or quagmire; whichever word we may use to describe the situation, is unique on the count that no institution has tried to solve the issue so as to move towards a greater interest of the state and the society. In fact, the various players feel it safe to play by their respective egos; even violate the oath to take sides; yet claim that they are ‘apolitical’.
To begin with, the hybrid arrangement simulated after the 2018 general elections was disrupted before time with the help of new bedfellows by the established order. In the pre-hybrid days, when there was no ‘one-page’ doctrine in force, such proverbial change of spouses was not felt by the departing spouse as to the extent witnessed in the post April 9, 2022 period.
Consequently, the dismissal of the first hybrid partner was not followed by mute murmuring in the media only; but a series of demonstrations of street power, long marches and intense asymmetrical social media campaigns was unleashed in a manner to unnerve the establishment. It was the first and may be the only instance in Pakistani political history, when the top intelligence man was brought in by the military media wing to speak on behalf of the institution.
For many cynical analysts, it was presumably the issue of who was to be selected as the top soldier. The bad luck for the established order dawned in a manner that first it must deal with the estranged ‘one-page’ partner and over that look at the prospect of who was to be the next head of the forces, so that the damage control exercise may be executed.
To the bad luck of the ‘estranged’ fellows as well as the incumbent ‘bedfellows’ the change of guard, instead of settling the issues in an amicable manner, precipitated the crisis further up to the limits never seen before. The winters and the spring of 2022-2023 saw the political heat going to limits not seen before. The polarization was to such an extent that individuals in top institutions did not shy away from taking political sides and demonstrating through their public stances and decisions as to where their ‘political preferences’ or ‘loyalties’ lay.
In a constitution, where the book clearly advises a neutral caretaker setup, the two provinces where the caretaker setups had to be installed; these set-ups brought to the memory of the political historians the bitter memory of late Jam Sadiq Ali days in Sindh during the autumn/winter of 1990/1991.
Such a transgression of the mandate stipulated by the constitution could not have been possible, without the backing of the established order. That political reality has been tolerated by the people of Pakistan long enough with muted response. Pakistan of 2023, was already on fire courtesy the social media-backed awareness, even if a faulty narrative based was enough to set any destructive process in motion.
That thing precisely happened when the leader of the opposition in the political landscape of the country was first hooked up in case after case. In one such case, instead of the LEA backed by the concerned province or the federal territory, the paramilitary forces were deployed to capture the above-mentioned leader.
In a political discourse, coincidently encouraged by the established order a decade ago, helping to build a personality cult close to that of a saviour, any such foolish move by the paramilitary units was bound to create a chain reaction. Whether one side calls it a near ‘coup’, the other calls it a ‘reaction’, it was a foregone conclusion for the independent political watcher that the incidents of that day resembled in a way the incidents that took place exactly 70 years ago in another land: not so far off, the emerging nation state of Iran. On August 19, 1953, a mix of disinformation, crowds unguided in general and a few agents provocateurs guided by the concerned vested interests in Tehran restored the otherwise fleeing monarch to his throne. The restoration was followed by extreme regimentation and transformation of the political system into an effective ‘police state’ in the process.
The two dates in 1953 and 2023 restored a receding system again. The exercises of the two days were undoubtedly conducted and planned in a scientific manner: down to the minutest details.
The timeline of the quagmire and the political analysis of the same brings to the forefront a few takeaways for the serious and independent students of political science. The receding system, once back in the driver seat, needs legitimacy through a few acts which can benefit the common man. The question of economy is one such domain where such systems of government try their best to make an impression in the minds of the common man.
As said in an earlier analysis last week, the economic welfare of the masses is presumably based on assumptions, which can bring quickset solutions, but no long-term benefits, either to the economy nor to the stability of the political system at work.
The emerging scenario might witness cosmetic steps like investment promotion along the beaten trajectory, price control measures synonymous with dictatorial styles of government, and a few adjustment loans from dost mumalik (friendly countries) or even IMF to keep the show going (such arrangement seems to be finalized), or through the sale of few combat jets, trainer jets or multibarrelled rocket launchers; but the economy in general might not be the priority for the key policy makers.
With the internal environment increasingly being put in the ‘mute’ mode; the role of intelligentsia is critical to influence the ‘mighty heads without content.’ That process can be long term; something like what the media wings call zehan sazi (building minds). That process cannot be avoided even for the short-term results either. With an ineffective constitutional document and a docile and defeated polity, the students of economics and political science might have a task greater than getting good grades; that of questioning the prevalent economic philosophy.
Proverbially we live among the ‘silent lambs’ yet a few lambs need to have horns like the Zodiac sign of Aries to make the point heard. Invariably the country has the potential to rise impressively provided the minds are set free proverbially and in hard truth. Pakistan needs to say ‘farewell’ to the regimented style of governance for good.
