With categorical statements from the ruling coalition suggesting dissolution of the assemblies in August and possibly general elections in November 2023, the ground seems to be set; either to accord the formal electoral stamp to the incumbent as ‘desirable’ or to invite further chaos in an already fractured polity. A deep down forensic examination of the canvas, on which the political and non-political forces will try to influence the mosaic of patterns and colours, can alert or at least point to the road ahead. Here it may be pointed out that unlike the spectre where personal whims might have a free hand, the ritual availability of the constitution book at least imposes a discipline, no matter how superficial; to compel the powers-that-be to hold polls.
What the PPP government on 20 December 1971 inherited was very much of its own making; its refusal to get into a unified act with Awami League to change the rules of business of the polity. If imagination allows visualization; the new social contract by the name of 1973 constitution could have been formulated, finalized and adopted by the 1970 assembly; the assembly which later bore from its womb, two treasury benches; PPP in Pakistan and AL in the new state of Bangladesh. That might have wishfully saved the country from dismemberment.
We may disagree with the gravity of the situation; but the fact remains that the 2023 elections stand apart in the chequered history of Pakistani general elections on many counts. The 1988 elections were held after the death of a dictator. They were to predictably be influenced by a sympathy vote for Bhutto. The 1990, 1993, 1997 and 2002 elections were more or less managed; with the degree of interference varying based on the stakes of the background players. The 2008 elections were again influenced by the exit of a dictator through internal machinations of the established order as well as the popular will registered through the ballot.
The 1970 general elections; rather the first ones ever held in Pakistan after 24 years of the country coming into existence can match the 2023 election; as regards the gravity, importance and make or break potential. The coup leader General Yahya Khan organized the 1970 elections. The coup was the direct outcome of the political crisis, which hit the country’s polity, unity and economy for times to come. The unrest against the then dictator Ayub Khan over rising prices, lack of civil freedoms and angry federating units all combined to pose a direct threat to the first ever experiment of the established order; the Ayub prescription of economic development and a compliant polity.
The West Pakistanis were as much angry at the established order as were the East Pakistanis. However, the lack of political communication prevented formation of the united front. The result; the country was treated to yet another coup. The East Pakistani polity best represented by Sheikh Mujib Awami League, and when it was unable to put across its thought process, it felt justifiably alienated from the Pakistani federation. Further missteps by the established order effectively alienated the East Pakistani population from the federation. The 1970 elections only put a formal electoral stamp on that feeling when the results started pouring in the early hours of 9 December 1970, courtesy the PTV Election transmissions.
How the powerful stakeholders mishandled the situation is history. Regretfully, no lessons were learnt from the debacle; rather a jingoistic angle is viewed in creative arts still; making the whole treatment a ’stinking exercise’ complete with name-calling and stereotyping. Coming back to the present scenario, it can be safely argued that the era the country is passing through is a unique period on the count that information availability has raised the awareness level of the man on the street. The much ‘feared’ establishment is now no more than a ‘nuisance’, which needs to be dealt with in the short, and long, runs. That does not mean that people are wary of its original roles. The intrusion into the domains, not meant for them, remains a sore point between the common man and the establishment.
The current crisis was preceded by a period of unusual calm, where a ‘one-page’ understanding was thought and claimed for all to observe. The failure of the experiment or the hunt for new candidates for the one page or one passenger for the CG-125 bike of the establishment actually precipitated what is called in the political history of Pakistan the ouster of a serving PM through a vote of no-confidence in Parliament. The first of its kind in the political history of the country, it could have been a medal for the shaky democratic culture in Pakistan. However, it only helped precipitate a confrontation, which the prime stakeholders might never have even contemplated.
What happened through the summer of 2022 up to the winter of 2023 was the no-holds- barred fight for survival by the established order and its former bed fellow in the eyes of public or the ‘public perception’. Never in the history of the country or the region, had the top spy in civilian clothing had to explain things on part of his institution in a presser.
The result was that people knew more than what was traditionally tolerated in Pakistan in the first place. Very much like the famous confession of the top planner of the Ayub military regime Dr. Mahbub ul Haque in the article or paper titled ‘The seven sins of economic planners’, in which the late economist laid bare the internal mechanism of economic planning, that the development paradigm centred on promoting poverty and a wide difference between the haves and have-nots. In a few words, the Ayub regime justified what can be called the promotion and formation of the 22 families, which, even now, continue to control the majority of resources in Pakistan.
In both the situations, in 1969/1970 and 2022, the information precipitated a perception, which warranted a revision of the status quo towards greater inclusion of the important stakeholder, the ‘masses. In 1970, that revision was not facilitated; though the elections were allowed to be held without any tampering of the process or of the results. The elections demanded compliance of the people’s mandate and consequent reforms and revisions. However, nothing happened on a positive note.
What the PPP government on 20 December 1971 inherited was very much of its own making; its refusal to get into a unified act with Awami League to change the rules of business of the polity. If imagination allows visualization; the new social contract by the name of 1973 constitution could have been formulated, finalized and adopted by the 1970 assembly; the assembly which later bore from its womb, two treasury benches; PPP in Pakistan and AL in the new state of Bangladesh. That might have wishfully saved the country from dismemberment.
Given the polarization witnessed during the last one and half year, given the constant resort of the establishment to playing musical chairs with available players, the elections, if the establishment decides to hold in fair and free manner under the pressure from the ‘Principal’ western hemisphere, then a parliament with many blocs cannot be ruled out; as a conservative estimate. If a sympathy vote works and party under fire sweeps the polls; then it would be a real test for the powers on the top; whether they select their whims or the survival of the nation state. The recent IMF representative rendezvous with top opposition entity signals that international financial market is closely watching the changing jigsaw in Pakistan. Any weak federation coming out of the 2023 polls can be a dangerous development. Political maturity of the political leaderships spread across the political spectrum will to be a deciding factor for the above-mentioned apprehensions. As Pakistan moves away from the Monsoon to autumn, the tests for all the components of the nation state; the people, the leaders and the institutions are hard and deciding. Unlike previous scenarios, there might not be many chances at hand. Pure black and white scenarios will stare at the establishment. It will be a hard and critical decision to make for those ‘who matter’.
