The National Assembly and the Sindh and Balochistan Assemblies will stand dissolved on August 12, having first met on 13 August 2018, having completed their five-year tenure. Along with the already dissolved Sind and KP Assemblies, the country will then have fresh elections within 60 days to all of them, unless there is a slightly earlier dissolution. The elections that will ensue, are expected to throw up an entirely different party complexion, mainly because of the collapse of the Pakistan Tehreek Insaf, the winner in 2018, which managed to form governments in Punjab and Sindh, as well as the Centre. However, after the party’s implosion following party chief Imran Khan’s arrest and the subsequent attacks on military installations, on May 9, it seems unlikely that the party’s votebank will be encashed by anyone. However, while many will avoid the PTI ticket, they will not forgo the electoral contest, and are likely to contest as independents.
The PPP, which was squeezed to Sindh in 2018, not only hopes to retain its base there, but has expanded through the local body elections into areas where it had never really been strong, such as the MQM’s urban strongholds of Karachi and Hyderabad. It also intends to compete with the PTI in KP, and with the PML(N) in Punjab, especially South Punjab. It even has targeted Balochistan, harking back to 2008, when it headed a coalition government there. The PML(N) t.looks to restore its control of Punjab, and thus to play a major role in the Centre.
Though it is not really safe to predict anything in politics, it does seem as if the country is heading towards a hung Parliament, with the result that there will be a coalition government, as no party finds it possible to command a majority otherwise. Where such a coalition has to be formed, the role of smaller parties is almost automatically amplified. It is also an unfortunate but undeniable fact that the smaller the party, the more amenable it has proven to ‘suggestions’ from the establishment. That is supposed to be how the PTI, which had emerged as the largest party in the National Assembly, managed to form the government in 2018. It seems as if the elections will result in the same story, even if the actors change.
