Everything seems to be going according to plan. Here former Prime Minister Imran Khan was arrested, there the National Assembly was dissolved a day in advance of its natural expiry. Here Imran had his bail petitions rejected, there Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Leader of Opposition Raja Riaiz completed three rounds of talks (though not before Raja Riaz had milked the opportunity for all it was worth) before agreeing on Senator Anwarul Haq Kakar as caretaker prime minister.
Senator Kakar belonged to the Balochistan Awami Party, which does not seem to have been as big a problem as Finance Minister Ishaq Dar belonging to the PML(N) or former Finance Minister Hafeez Sheikh having served in both PPP and PTI governments, especially as he resigned from it. He also resigned from the Senate, which was not that much of a sacrifice, as his term was due to expire in March next year.
There are many reasons for delay, but none outweigh the responsibility to remain within the bounds of the Constitution. The most obvious solution is for the ECP to carry on its duty of delimitation, but conduct the elections according to the previous delimitations, and to make no amendments until afterwards. The ECP is not bound by a timeframe, though it is bound to carry out the delimitations
His appointment has not attracted as much comment as could have been expected. The PTI has refrained from comment, even though one would have expected a knee-jerk condemnation similar to the infamous ‘35 punctures’ comment about Punjab caretaker CM Najam Sethi in 2013, or the recent tigerish condemnation of Punjab caretaker CM Mohsin Naqvi as one of those responsible for toppling the Khan government. Only Hasan Askari Rizvi, who held the office in 2018 and presided over a PTI victory, has escaped PTI fulminations against the Punjab caretaker CM.
The PTI has been relatively mild on caretaker PMs. That may be because of the realization that caretaker PMs do not play as much of a role in the fairness of an election as the provincial CMs. Without the CMs helping, no PM can influence an election. However, even if the caretaker PM is committed to a fair poll, a CM can do a lot in his province.
Therefore it is not entirely clear why the virtually sole critical voice has emerged from Sardar Akhtar Mengal, who was part of the outgoing coalition. One possibility is that Sardar Akhtar is defining the limits of Baloch identity narrowly, so as to exclude Kakar. The problem for Baloch nationalists is how to handle Balochistanis who are not Baloch, as Kakar is not.
This is perhaps more of a problem than is apparent, because though Balochistan has been named after the Baloch, it is actually a rich tapestry of several peoples brought together by history. The Baloch are apparently concentrated in the old princely state of Kalat, which extends all the way down from the Takht-i-Suleiman Mountains to the Makran Coast, where the Khan had two subordinate Nawabs, of Jhalawan and Sarawan. Also Baloch are the Jams of Lasbela.
However, there are also a large number of Pashtuns, who were conquered from Afghanistan after the first Afghan War, and added to what was called British Baluchistan. One of the leading tribes to come under the British thus were the Kakar, who are centred around Zhob. The previous prominent Kakars, Sardar Abdur Rab Nishtar and former COAS Gen Abdul Waheed Kakar, belonged to Peshawar, but their family had migrated from Zhob.
If not his Pakhtun origin, then Sardar Akhtar may be concerned about his own seat. It is also possible that he is concerned that the new caretaker PM was affiliated to the Balochistan Awami Party until very recently, and this might put him and his Balochistan National Movement colleagues at a disadvantage.
This is the first time that a Balochistani Pashtun has become PM. A Baloch from Balochistan became caretaker PM in 2013, when Mr Justice (retd) Hazar Khan Khoso held the job, and the last caretaker PM, Mr Justice (retd) Nasirul Mulk, was a Pushtun, from Swat. While the last two caretakers were retired Supreme Court judges, Kakar is a politician. He is clearly an establishment man, for before BAP, he had once been in the PML(N).
The task before him is that of conducting the general election on the date intimated by the Chief Election Commissioner, and which must be within 90 days of the dissolution. There is a strong rumour that elections will not take place on time, because, just before the end of the coalition government, it pushed the results of the census held earlier this year. The fear is that the census results will require fresh delimitations, and that would prevent the Election Commission from conducting the elections until they are not just complete and notified, but candidates have had time to campaign. Indeed, delimitations could conceivably influence not just a candidate’s choice of constituency, but whether or not he would contest at all.
The delimitations issue may well illustrate the kind of ‘perfect storm’, that combination of coincidences, which make it impossible for the ECP to have to disobey the constitution in
Obeying another. The clash of timings is not really of the Constitution, but of the Constitution and a law made under it. The constitution mandates the fresh delimitations whenever a census is published. A census was conducted in March, and its results approved for publication.
The inter-provincial seat allocation is given in the Constitution in its Article 51. A re-delimitation will start with a constitutional amendment, but if the census results keep the interprovincial distribution unchanged, there need be no recourse to Parliament.
However, there is no need to go to Parliament unless one wants to change the number of seats in a provincial assembly, which is not a delimitation requirement. However, the delimitation of provincial assembly seats will have to take place according to the census, so as to reflect any shifts in population. It is conceivable, therefore, for a district to be allocated the same number of seats, but to have the lines radically revised.
This is where the clash arises. Section 22 of the Act says the ECP may notify any amendments four months before the issuing of an election programme. This after the process of delimitation, which will itself take a certain period of time. Then there is Section 21, which mandates the publication of delimitations in the Gazette, and allows 30 days for the filing of objections.
An Election Programme is issued at least 45 days before the poll, and specifies the date on which each activity is to take place. The last activity is polling, and the first is nomination of papers. Before this, returning officers have to be appointed. According to Section 22 of the Act, delimitations must have been made four months before the Election Programme is issued, and thus at least five and a half months before the poll, which is considered a sufficient time for a potential candidate to get acquainted with the constituency.
There are many reasons for delay, but none outweigh the responsibility to remain within the bounds of the Constitution. The most obvious solution is for the ECP to carry on its duty of delimitation, but conduct the elections according to the previous delimitations, and to make no amendments until afterwards. The ECP is not bound by a timeframe, though it is bound to carry out the delimitations.
Anwarul Haq Kakar may have been brought in to serve more than the standard caretaker tenure. Already, the caretaker governments in Punjab and KP have overstayed their constitutionally prescribed limits by five months, and if they remain in office until the elections, which may go well beyond the prescribed November limit, they will probably celebrate their first anniversaries in office. That might well be too much for the people to stand.
