On the advice of the Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, the President has dissolved the national assembly and with it the PDM government has also ended after ruling the roost for nearly 16 months. It is perhaps an appropriate time to have a glance at its successes and failures.
Let me begin by conceding at the outset that the PDM government inherited an economy in tatters owing to some irrational economic initiatives of the PTI government, its resort to unprecedented borrowing and on top of that reneging on the commitments made to the IMF which pushed the country to the edge of a precipice with the prospect of default staring it in the face. It would be pertinent to point out that the burgeoning inflation in the country also made the lives of the masses miserable who at the fag end of the PTI government were praying for an early end to it. The wish of the people was granted when the PDM, resorting to constitutional means, ousted the PTI regime.
It was indeed a very precarious situation which necessitated not only winning back the confidence of the IMF but also completing the ninth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Unfortunately, in spite of protracted negotiations, Pakistan could not succeed in completing the ninth review of the EFF. However in the end the IMF reached a staff-level agreement on policies to be supported by a Stand-By-Agreement (SBA) amounting to $3 billion for a period of nine months. That can be construed as a success with respect to saving the country from the prospect of default.
However the truth is that the PDM government in its quest to complete the ninth review of EFF did resort to raising the prices of petroleum products, electricity and gas, allowing the dollar-rupee rate to be determined by the market forces and withdrawal of some of the subsidies which triggered a new round of inflation further eroding the purchasing power of the poor masses. The SBA has also come with conditions to raise the prices of utilities and petroleum products and we have already seen its implementation. It may have been to fulfill the commitments made with the IMF but the truth is that the PDM government has not been able to lessen the miseries of the people.
Nevertheless, it is pertinent to mention here that some of the factors which accelerated the hydra-headed inflation included catastrophic floods in 2022 and the spike in international prices in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war. These factors were surely beyond the control of the PDM government. Anyway it can be safely concluded that in spite of all the justifications the PDM government failed to satisfy the masses about the phenomenal increase in the commodity prices.
The economic situation also deteriorated due to political instability that has prevailed in the country since the ouster of Imran Khan and continues to cast its ugly shadow on the political landscape of the country as well as the prospects of economic recovery. The PDM government, apart from economic and intractable political challenges, also faced the dilemma of rectifying the kink in diplomatic relations with the USA and other countries, particularly with the former, which Imran Khan accused of having played a role in his exit from power.
Corporate farming and establishment of SIFC are indeed direction setting steps. However it will take time before the country starts reaping dividends of these steps. The fire-fighting done by the PDM government has surely lent stability to the economy but the fact remains that the masses cannot expect an immediate relief to mitigate their sufferings. Economic initiatives invariably have a time-lag to produce results.
The resurgence of terrorism in the country was yet another colossal dilemma facing the PDM regime which was a sequel to an unimaginative move by the PTI government to hold negotiations with the TTP and allowing them to return to Pakistan to the areas from where they had been removed during operation Zarb-e-Azb. On top of that it had to face a not very sympathetic judiciary. These were the issues that the PDM government never visualized.
As far as rectifying the kink in relations with the USA and removing the misgivings of China in regards to the putting of CPEC projects on the backburner by the PTI regime are concerned, the PDM government has surely succeeded in removing the aberrations. CPEC is back on track and new commitments have been made by China for investment in the rail link between China and Pakistan and on ML-1 regarding doubling the track between Peshawar and Karachi. Pakistan also succeeded in negotiating a fund to atone for the losses and damage due to the floods at COP 27 as chairman of G77, which can also be taken as the success of the government. The handling of the floods was also an appreciable undertaking by the PDM government. The passage of the PEMRA Amendment Bill to safeguard the interests of the media workers and commencement of health insurance cards for the journalist community can also be conveniently added to the positive achievements of the government.
In my view unfurling the initiative of corporate farming to be undertaken by the Army is also a very visionary step that will not only ensure food security but would also lead to introduction of new farming technologies in the country. The establishment of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) premised on a whole-of-government approach in which the Army has a role in decision making and implementation of policies also signifies an auspicious beginning.
In view of the prevailing situation in Pakistan and the perilous state of the economy, the only option, apart from focusing on enhancing exports, is to attract foreign direct investment. The SIFC has been mandated to bring in $100 billion FDI within three years and enhance the GDP up to $1 trillion by the fiscal year 2035. It will focus on obtaining investments in agriculture, livestock, mines and minerals, IT, defence production and energy from China, UAE, Turkey, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. The council aims to provide a one-window arrangement for the potential investors setting aside the bureaucratic snags with a view to expedite the process and formalities involved in facilitating FDI. It is perhaps pertinent to mention that the countries mentioned above and many multinationals based in those countries have expressed keen interest and willingness to invest in the identified sectors.
Corporate farming and establishment of SIFC are indeed direction setting steps. However it will take time before the country starts reaping dividends of these steps. The fire-fighting done by the PDM government has surely lent stability to the economy but the fact remains that the masses cannot expect an immediate relief to mitigate their sufferings. Economic initiatives invariably have a time-lag to produce results.
