The finale for the political unrest, which engulfed the polity, society and the economy since April 2022, has taken place at last. As the dust settles, the ‘power sharing’, rather ‘power-yielding’ mechanics of the society have not just gone through a ‘radical change’, rather a ‘regime change’. As things stand, the role of constitutional supremacy coupled with an assertive role of Parliament are the things of the past. The foundation of ‘one-page’ hybrid, which was set in 2018 elections which b rought a political trend well versed in fifth generation political gaming, has gone full circle in 2023.
With the electoral process apparently delayed; and if one goes by smelling the mood and environment, likely to be heavily managed, the Constitution of Pakistan, as chided by successive dictators to be a ‘piece of paper’, has been actually turned into a worthless one. Exactly 70 years ago in another part of the world, a fist fight between the democratic forces and the non-democratic ‘thugs’ on the streets of Tehran on a hot August afternoon, resulted in the victory of the latter. For the people of this part of the world, called Pakistan, it is 19 August 1953 replayed over weeks and months.
The way out squarely stands not with the political forces who seem to have traded their independence. The average person and the new breed of street fighters with probably no police record might undo the ills being strengthened across. A middle class able to make the most of the space and able to educate the public at large might be the only silver lining. Any division will be killer and being content with any small concession a suicide for that movement. Hopefully the younger generation feels the pain of their cowardly parents and rises to the occasion
A walk through the mechanics of the narrative, which caused the change of guards in Pakistan, reveals trends needing debate. It demonstrates that if one opponent is equipped with all the necessary ammunition; the proverbial one to influence the public perception, while the other side is treating the scroll in the corridors of power as a lifetime opportunity, enough to make as many bucks as one can. It was not that the other side was composed of mystics. Rather it had the fair share of worldly flair complete with available facilities and purchasing power.
The impression of the political side only interested in making bucks seems to have overtaken a general perception paradigm. The utility of the political forces in setting the direction of the state and the society as has been successfully practiced and maintained in leading democracies the world over was ignored and belittled since the inception of the nation-state called Pakistan. True that in the aftermath of the demise of the Father of the Nation in 1948 and the assassination of the Prime Minister in 1951, Pakistan’s political direction was rudderless, and it was still too early to call it a day for the political order in its true sense.
Resultantly the initial encroachment of the civil service followed by military bureaucracy changed the whole face of the state and consequently the rules of engagement between the rulers and the ruled. Gone were the friendly and brotherly bonds, which could solve many a problem in a collective manner. The state, which sprouted out of these mishaps, was a national security state always faced with this or that threat. The Ayub era has the McCarthy doctrine in hand to stifle public dissent in the name of suppressing ‘Marxist subversion’. Zia continued with the same under new banners. By the time Musharraf took over, the ‘Islamist’ threat had been blown over to justify picking up dissidents in the dead of night, never to return to the laps of their close ones.
Musharraf’s retreat under pressure from his colleagues in November 2007 did not change things favourably for the nation-state. The state by that time, with components and the institutions making the most of the fallout of 9/11, was transformed from a political state to a national security one. It was not so that civil strife and militancy did not raise its head during the civilian period between 1988 to 1999.
The political governments always had a mix of civil and law enforcement solutions to get out of the quagmires. The 9/11 incidents for Pakistan, reversed the process of gradual democratization of the society. For all practical purposes, the Pakistani society degenerated to the period, which the Turkish, Chilean or Argentinian democracies have long left as an undesirable legacy. The neighbouring Indian state took a literal vow, never to repeat the repeal of civil rights like what it did in that particular midnight proclamation of Emergency in 1975.
The post-2008 period, when the political governments were miraculously able to complete terms, though without a single person completing the term alone. The reason for that disturbance lay in the perception that political leaders were only in the corridors of power for the money-minting exercise. If the country was to be saved, the only solution was to shun their participation in the system and treat them as pariahs for the society. As a result the only other option left for leading the society were the institutions well versed in fifth-generation media-influencing strategies.
Regretfully, while the media regulatory bodies advisory bars to name any political movement in any narrative, it is the hard fact that the post-2018 elections hybrid setup was the first step towards what can be called the march towards ‘shrinking the civilian space’ in the decision-making mechanisms of the society.
Here the powers that be made use of the differences among the various political camps to steer the polity and society towards the desired goals. The post-2018 experiment was faced with the first obstacle when the two partners were finding ways to part ways. The final setting ground was witnessed in the shape of the vote of no-confidence in the beginning of 2022. Apparently, it looked good that the political forces were sorting out things for themselves. However, the developing scenario ominously suggested otherwise.
The hybrid experiment was never deserted as might have been claimed by the originating setups. Rather, only the actors were changed keeping in view the expediencies of the time. Practically, all the stalwarts in the political groups with least courage to do things themselves tried to befriend the ‘cop’ to get the opponent ‘fixed’.
The period between April 2022 to date is illustrative of the fact that the perception about the political forces being after ‘loot and plunder’ has strengthened in the minds of a ‘numb’ populace to that extent that gradual ‘surrender’ of the society to the new rules of business seems seamless; and so the feared ‘putsch’.
Practically, without any formal announcement made or any such thing; with the country seemingly ruled as per the dictates of the 1973 Constitution; the on-ground situation is more like what the Ayub setup tried to instil for legitimacy. A push for foreign investment, a so-called farmer-friendly policy, a foreign policy seemingly non-aligned but actually putting all the bets in the ‘Pentagon’ camp. All the good things covered by the iron hand of the state under the rationale of the ‘national security state’.
The developing scenario where the political solutions might give way to the administrative ones; will likely complicate the going in the future. A hung parliament courtesy a managed electoral process will empower and embolden the nonpolitical solutions to gain currency. Separatist movements need to be cajoled into the fold through dialogue. However, what seems to be the order of the day is finding a geopolitical military percept on these hard questions. Predictably, these solutions are likely to increase the number of fellow citizens alienated.
The way out squarely stands not with the political forces who seem to have traded their independence. The average person and the new breed of street fighters with probably no police record might undo the ills being strengthened across. A middle class able to make the most of the space and able to educate the public at large might be the only silver lining. Any division will be killer and being content with any small concession a suicide for that movement. Hopefully the younger generation feels the pain of their cowardly parents and rises to the occasion.
