After the World War 11, nuclear weapons were never used and were only employed as a strategic threat. During the heightened days of the Cold War, many crises arose in Suez Canal, Korea, Cuba and Vietnam when the US and the former Soviet Union were willing to use atomic weapons, but, they stopped due to the fear of nuclear war which could eliminate both the superpowers. Hence, they preferred to resolve their differences through diplomacy by following the doctrine of nuclear deterrence, popularly known as balance of terror.
Political strategists agree that deterrence is a psychological concept, which aims to affect an opponent’s perceptions. In nuclear deterrence, weapons are less usable, as their threat is enough in deterring an enemy who intends to use its armed might. In this context, a renowned scholar, Hotzendorf remarks that nuclear force best serves the interests of a state when it deters an attack.
But, situation of the Sub-continent is quite different where without bothering for the eruption of atomic war between India and Pakistan; New Delhi has been ignoring the tenets of ‘nuclear deterrence’.
In fact, BJP won the general elections of 2014 and 2019 on the basis of anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan slogans. Therefore, since Narendar Modi, the fanatic leader of the biased ruling party BJP, became Indian prime minister; he has been implementing ideology of Hindutva (Hindu Nationalism) by persecuting the Muslims and creating war-hysteria among the Hindus against Pakistan.
In this regard, Modi-led BJP government can go to any extent to win the general elections to be held in 2024.
After facing a defeat in states of Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Chattisgarh, Jharkand, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Karnatka, BJP entities are trying to capitalise on anti-Pakistan sentiments of general populace to gain landslide victory in the forthcoming elections. Blaming Pakistan of harbouring terrorists and supporting extremist elements in India are part of the previous scheme to win elections as it is once again on public display.
According to Indian media reports, on September 16, this year, multiple officers and soldiers of the Indian forces were killed in a fake encounter with terrorists in the Uri sector, resulting in a dozen casualties.
Similar reports of Indian forces operation came from Anantnag on September 12, 2023 whereas per their narrative, one Lieutenant colonel, one major and one DSP were killed. The evidence on ground is contrary to what is claimed by Indian Media’s war-mongering hysteria. Video messages of inhabitants living close to Line of Control (LoC) revealed a complete calm and denied any happenings of the sort reported by Indian Media.
On September 16, 2023, BJP’s biased Zee TV aired a Modi’s address of March 4, 2019 as live to add color to this political rhetoric for gaining a favourable poll opinion for BJP. The images of the region are clearly reflective of usual activity where local shepherds are seen with their hoards. Such activity is out of question in an area where Indian forces are engaged in so-called “fierced encounter”.
The false flag operation is a theatrical drama staged by India to achieve multiple objectives, including diverting global attention from human rights violations in in the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) by blaming Pakistan for terrorism there.
Prior to Indian elections, the Modi regime has started a campaign to demonize its own citizens and military officers. It shows that once again, India wants to recreate the Pulwama drama to obtain political goals. Global media reports and audio-video evidence also confirm that Indian forces are spreading terrorism along the LoC to achieve political ambitions, using false encounters and fake news to fuel a war frenzy, which is Modi’s old tactic.
Indian media also suggest that the Modi government is trying to disrupt the ceasefire agreement on the LoC.
While, in the face of growing chaos in Rajouri and Anantnag, New Delhi is resorting to baseless allegations against Pakistan to deflect media and public scrutiny of its problems.
In these terms, a few days ago, the killing of five Indian soldiers in the occupied Jammu and Kashmir’s Rajouri sector was a Modi’s failed attempt to play politics with his own soldiers’ blood.
However, the sole purpose of this entire drama is to create a pretext to break the ceasefire and escalate hostilities against Pakistan, to cover up its internal failures, distract the public and set the stage for victory in next elections.
It is mentionable that BJP has a history of launching false-flag operations to malign Islamabad in an effort to woo the voters for BJP.
In this connection, very tension escalated rapidly between New Delhi and Islamabad in the aftermath of the false flag Pulwama terror attack in the IIOJK when on February 27, 2019, in response to the Indian so-called pre-emptive air strike near the town of Balakot, close to the border with Pakistan’s sector of Kashmir, which resulted into no causalities, Pakistan Air Force shot down two Indian Air Force fighter jets and launched aerial strikes at six targets in the IIOJK.
Pakistan also captured Indian pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman who was released as a gesture of peace and handed over to the Indian authorities. It resulted into diplomatic victory of Islamabad over New Delhi.
Notably, revelations by Satya Pal Malik, ex-governor of IIOJK in an interview with Karan Thapar in The Wire abundantly made it clear that Modi allowed Pulwama incident of February 2019 to happen where more than 40 personnel of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) were killed in a suicide attack.
Ex-Governor elaborated that Modi has no concern with whatever happened in Pulwama and he did not allow him to raise some pertinent questions the way attack happened suggesting that he was privy to impending attack. Hence Modi’s involvement is vivid.
On August 5, 2019, Modi-led government abrogated articles 35A and 370 of the Constitution, which gave a special status to the IIOJK. New Delhi bifurcated Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories—Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh to be ruled by the federal government. On the same day, strict military lockdown was imposed in the IIOJK which continues unabated.
New Delhi also issued an infamous map which displayed these divisions. Besides Pakistan, China also rejected the Indian malicious acts as “unlawful and void”, saying that India’s decision to “include” some of China’s territory into its administrative jurisdiction “challenged” Beijing’s sovereignty.
Similarly, drastic tensions arose between New Delhi and Beijing on May 5, 2021, when India occupied various areas, adjacent to the Line of Actual Control (LAC). In response, Chinese forces moved into the regions along the eastern Ladakh border and vacated the disputed territories.
Meanwhile, New Delhi and Beijing completed their withdrawal from the Pangong Tso Lake area on February 20, 2021 in accordance with an agreement, signed by their commanders. While, other parts of the border remain unsettled. However, LAC is a nuclear flashpoint between the two countries.
Nevertheless, the deployment of more than 900,000 military troops in the IIOJK, who have martyred tens of thousands of the Kashmiris, including women and children through brutal tactics-fake encounters, while closure of mosques, shortage of foods, medicines for the patients have further increased the plight of the Kashmiris.
It is noteworthy that a US intelligence report, entitled ‘The Global Trends’, released on April 7, 2020 warned that “nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan might engage in a large-scale war unwittingly…Miscalculation by both governments could prompt a breakdown in the deterrence that has restricted conflict.”
In a latest statement, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres who urged the resolution of Kashmir dispute in accordance with the UN resolutions, warned that “any military confrontation between two nuclear powers-Pakistan and India would be a disaster for both countries and the whole world.”
It is worth-mentioning that Indian Defence Rajnath Singh on August 16, 2014 had threatened Pakistan with nuclear war, while BJP leader Dr. Subramaniam Swami had also stated in the same year that India needed only two years to defeat Pakistan militarily, and the only solution of Kashmir was war, as “there is no peaceful, democratic solution”.
As regard war-mongering diplomacy, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s recent threat to cross the LoC, Indian cross-border terrorism in Pakistan and backing the militant outfits to destabilize this country show that Indian unfinished agenda of partition still continues.
In the recent past, Pakistan’s civil and military leaders have repeatedly indicated that India is planning another false flag operation against Pakistan in order to divert attention from its internal issues and from failure of its external policy with the real aim of wining general elections 2024. They have frequently stated that Pakistan’s armed forces “are ready to respond any Indian aggression with full might.”
Nonetheless, in this backdrop, clouds of nuclear war are hovering over South Asia where Modi’s risky strategy of conducting another false flag operation inside Pakistani side of Kashmir by ignoring the doctrine of nuclear deterrence could result into a full-scale conventional war with Pakistan, which may culminate into atomic war, enveloping the entire region and probably the whole world.
