ISLAMABAD: Several Wall Street brokerages have raised their forecasts for China’s annual growth in recent weeks, citing stabilising economic indicators and effective supportive policy measures.
Citigroup and J.P. Morgan this week raised their forecasts for China’s GDP growth to 5 percent in 2023, in line with its target rate for the year. Both said the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy has “hit a bottom”.
Policy momentum since end-August has exceeded expectations, Citi economists said in a note, citing a cut in personal income tax, as property prices ease in first-tier cities and home loans get repriced.
The brokerage expects retail sales to improve and industrial production to hold steady following a rebound in factory activity.
China’s latest survey of major manufacturers showed that the purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.2 in September from 49.7 a month earlier, edging above the 50-point level demarcating contraction and expansion.
Earlier in September, ANZ also upgraded its growth forecast for China by 0.2 percentage point to 5.1 percent after August economic numbers offered signs of stabilisation in the economy.
Industrial output rose 4.5 percent in August from a year earlier, official data showed. The growth marked the quickest pace since April.
Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, also increased at a faster 4.6 percent pace in August aided by the summer travel season, and was the quickest growth since May.
Meanwhile, the United Nation’s trade and development chief said on Wednesday that concerns that China’s economy is in trouble are being exaggerated.
“We don’t share the very pessimistic projections about China,” said Rebeca Grynspan, head of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
China has more fiscal policy space than other large economies to deal with challenges in consumer demand and private investment, she added.
UNCTAD’s report forecasts that China will grow 10 to 12 times faster than the euro area this year.
“It continues to be a major contributor to global growth,” said Richard Kozul-Wright, the director of UNCTAD’s Globalisation and Development Strategies Division.
