AT PENPOINT
Perhaps never in Pakistan’s chequered history has there been such a sense of those responsible not knowing what to do. It is not that no one seems to know what to do, but there is a feeling of all key players being paralyzed by events. Well, not exactly paralyzed, because everyone is working very hard, running with as much vigour as possible, to remain in the same place.
The paralysis seems general, with events being anxiously awaited, by those who have been used to making events happen.
Perhaps the most glaring example is the PTI. An election should bring it to power, but its chief, Imran Khan, is behind bars. He is already convicted in one case, and even though his sentence has been suspended, he has not been released, as he is undertrial in another case, under the Official Secrets Act. And then there are the May 9 attacks, for which he may be tried by military courts. Then there is the NAB enquiry into the Al-Qadir Trust case.
These are not merely pretexts for keeping him arrested, but for making sure that he stays in jail for a long time, certainly beyond the coming election. His party will thus have to campaign without him. This is the most serious loss the party has to face, but another debilitating loss has been the loss of the party organization, where a lot of stalwarts jumped ship after May 9. Apart from party organization, the PTI has also lost a lot of candidates, those who could not take the heat after May 9.
Apart from the election, from which Imran remains disqualified, the party is also headed for stormy waters if it is forced to decide its headship. With Imran disqualified, there will be an almighty struggle to head the party. That can only lead to more intraparty rifts and greater lack of viability in the polls.
At the moment, the PML(N) seems to be ahead of the PTI, because though at the moment both parties are without their leaders, the PML(N) should regain Mian Nawaz Sharif on October 21. While he and Imran Kha n seem to be in the same position, of being disqualified from contesting elections, Mian Nawaz is ahead, because his legal troubles, while not to be sneezed at, can be seen as disappearing in time for him to lead his party’s election campaign.
However, the PML(N) seems in search of a narrative. Mian Nawaz launched one recently, calling for the accountability of a couple generals, and some Supreme Court judges, including two former Chief Justices of Pakistan, but now that seems to have been buried, as PML(N) have said that the party, if elected, will not pursue any cases against anyone.
Mian Nawaz was actually borrowing a leaf of Imran’s playbook. Imran is also critical of the Army for not backing him, and though he is also critical of former COAS Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, he is also critical of the current COAS, Gen Asim Munir. Mian Nawaz was actually the one who first accused the establishment of ousting him. He has tried to re-launch the narrative before, most notably in his rally in Gujranwala, when he named General Bajwa and ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed as responsible for bringing Imran Khan to power.
It is ironic that his strongest point, that he is a good economic manager, has been disproved in the year-and-a-half of PDM government under his brother Shehbaz. Inflation was not reined in, and the dollar’s devaluation continued unchecked. While Shehbaz sat in for his elder brother, the government foundered on economic management. A lot of criticism was also hurled at the government for the ineptitude of its Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar. Dar was identified as having been imposed by Mian Nawaz, whose relative by marriage he is, but proved something of a damp squib.
Nawaz’s daughter Maryam has said that he has a plan for the economy to implement if he is re-elected, but made no details clear. That means that that particular narrative might not really carry all that much weight with the public. If that plan includes bringing Senator Dar back to Finance, it will not fly. While the good Senator may have immense qualities of head and heart, his last stint in office meant that he will never again bring to office the confidence it needs.
The problem is not so much economic, as that no one seems to have a solution. The performance of the PTI, then the PDM, and now the caretakers has shown that all the players have had recent terms, and have not managed the economy well. Perhaps more worrying, none have presented any plan which could make anyone confident that they will do better if given another chance.
The PML(N)’s fumblings for a narrative both highlight the problems of the country and the difficulties of the establishment and the caretaker government. The country’s main problem is economic, engendered by its inability to pay its way in the world, illustrated by its chronic shortage of foreign exchange. That shortage means that it suffers constant deficits, and that the US dollar becomes worth speculating in, which worsens the shortage. One of the underlying reasons for reform is to provide the sort of relief that will bring down the price of the dollar, and thus the price of all imported goods (which includes not just fuel but edible oil and medicines). However, the factor of ‘elite capture’ comes in; the elite is the greatest force against reform, because it benefits from an unreformed system.
Members of the elite make vast sums from enabling the kind of smuggling into Afghanistan that prevents the country from getting revenue from customs duties. Essentially, elite capture has stopped the state from balancing its books and providing the public social services like healthcare and education. Unfortunately, the elites making money include those who have been assigned by and from the establishment, to stop them.
Therefore, the Army leadership has taken on the task of repairing the economy, and is carrying on various crackdowns, but it is likely to see that these measures will not work permanently. There is no known means of overcoming market forces. The Special Investment Facilitation Council mechanism to bring in foreign exchange through foreign, mostly Gulf, investors, might seem a good idea, but it does not take account of the fact that while loans may be made as a bail-out, no one makes investments except as a means of making money.
Though the Army has decided it will stay out of politics, the clamour of all political parties will have to be ignored. Parties do not really want the military out of politics; they only want it to stay out against them. If it is willing to support them, it has no objection. The military has learnt the inadvisability of interference in politics, and has not decided to refrain because of any idealism, but because the results have been bad, the May 9 attacks. The country can only hope that the venture into economic management will not have similar results.
It should not be ignored that the administrative measures taken so far, are just the sort that Senator Dar had taken, though it could be said that they were more thorough. In the relatively short run, his measures petered out, and the rupee began declining again, and inflation was fuelled even before it began to decline. This time, the measures are also likely to peter out, and then what happens?
Enough of the dilemma the military has got itself into. The caretaker governments, which are actually the surrogates of the military, should conduct elections in 90 days,but have been showing signs of wanting to provide solutions for problems beyond their competence. While those problems should be left to the elected governments to tackle and hopefully solve, the best thing the caretakers can do for the country is to hold elections and leave.
The problem is not so much economic, as that no one seems to have a solution. The performance of the PTI, then the PDM, and now the caretakers has shown that all the players have had recent terms, and have not managed the economy well. Perhaps more worrying, none have presented any plan which could make anyone confident that they will do better if given another chance.
