Taiwan is the island of Formosa separated from China by the Taiwan Strait. Since 1949, the Chinese have considered Taiwan part of the Republic of China (ROC). The Chinese government attempted to unify Taiwan with the mainland because they considered it a renegade province of China. Taiwan is a land of 23 million people; still, political leaders have different views on the island’s status.
An election for Taiwan will be held in January. Once the election is completed, Beijing may try to discipline a new government in Taiwan. China is trying to demonstrate in China how formidable China is, its military power and otherwise. The scholars of international relations forecasted a new war between China and Taiwan in the Strait. President Xi Jinping and the Chinese government assert that there is only one China, and Taiwan is part of this one China. The People’s Republic of China seeks Taiwan’s eventual “unification with the mainland. In 1992, consensus was held to know the perception of people in both countries, that is, China and Taiwan. The consensus reflects that two sides of the strait belong to one China, and they will both work together to make it one China for national reunification. The cross-strait tension escalated in 2016 in the era of President Tsai Ing-wen’s election.
The USA established a diplomatic relationship with the PRC in 1979. At the same time, it extended its diplomatic ties to the ROC. Still, this relationship is regarded as an unofficial relation with Taiwan so as to sell its military equipment to its military. Beijing urged the USA to stop selling its weapons and cease contact with Taipei, but the U.S. claimed itself as a peace-loving country. The US stance on China and Taiwan was to maintain the same status quo and always answered that it did not support Taiwanese independence.
However, it saw both Beijing and Taipei maintain a cordial relationship as there is a hard choice for the USA among its policymakers towards Taiwan. There was a quiet debate in the national security circles of the USA that Xi’s intentions in Taiwan were meant to shock the world by using its military power against the USA and the rest of Europe. The USA and Taiwan need help with which path Xi might take. Many analysts and policymakers argue that the best way is for the USA to deter China from attacking Taiwan. US Representative Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin recently stated that the USA needed to arm Taiwan with sufficient military capabilities to deter China and avoid war, and it was time for the USA to sell its weapons to Taiwan to stop China dramatically.
The USA established a diplomatic relationship with the PRC in 1979. At the same time, it extended its diplomatic ties to the ROC. Still, this relationship is regarded as an unofficial relation with Taiwan so as to sell its military equipment to its military. Beijing urged the USA to stop selling its weapons and cease contact with Taipei, but the U.S. claimed itself as a peace-loving country.
There are two choices for the USA to deter China’s aggressive policy on Taiwan. The USA could either fight with China to protect Taiwan’s security or dominate China’s military by taking an offshore island. The other choice is to flood the Western Pacific with attack submarines to break the blockade by sailing and flying supplies into Taiwan. However, Xi has already prepared China’s military for a hard choice in Taiwan to take it back by force. Xi is aware of the dangerous intentions of the USA on the island, and China is preparing for war with the USA if it takes any aggressive steps on Taiwan. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall has recently stated that if Xi elects to force the issue, he will push himself toward more severe violence that may create decisive results and could harm him on the island.
Policy analysts have warned that Xi would love to win Taiwan without fighting and can astonish the major powers. China has a long tradition of starting its wars with surprise attacks, as noticed in Korea (1950) and Vietnam (1979). If the first strategy of Xi couldn’t run, the second option for China is to use its force as decisively as possible. This choice will astonish the significant powers, including the United States. The third Choice for Xi to control Taiwan would be the blockade. Under this strategy, he would seize some pretext to remove Taiwan from the outside world.
According to recent polls, the majority of the people in Taiwan support maintaining the status quo. Only a small number of people support immediate independence. China’s claim on Taiwan is genuine, and she can retake and reunify Taiwan by love, force, blockade and massive attack. What lies in store for the USA? Time will tell.
