The United States and its allies seem to be in a deep mess. Not only are they occupied in the war in Ukraine but also active in the Mediterranean, and after Houthi strikes in the Red Sea, US and its allies’ presence is going to increase in that theatre. The war in Ukraine has already become one of attrition with the Western powers granting Ukraine with hundreds of billions of dollars in military aid, coupled with the provision of advanced arms and munitions. Yet the US and its allies do not seem to be winning that war – to the contrary, Ukraine is losing ground and has failed in its counteroffensive against Russian troops resulting currently in a stalemate. Recent increase of activity in the Mediterranean already spilled fears of US being diverted from the war in Ukraine to a much more threatening adversary in the Middle East, thus thinning the already depleted US manpower, ammunition, and financial reserves according to Ex-CIA analyst Larry Johnson. Following the Houthi attacks on shipping lanes, especially those dealing with Israel has necessitated American intervention under the so-called preservation of peace in the area.
What are the implications of such overstretching? We need not look far in history when the Soviet Union, owing to its sheer vastness was soon discovered to have become a bubble too big to be contained which burst and collapsed at the end of the Cold War. There are certainly other lessons in this for US policy makers. Yet the unhinged stance of the US establishment in regards to Israel persists, with the US congress, which is currently dominated by Republicans, presenting a bill for more military and financial aid for Israel.
As far as US calculations are concerned, one thing is certain – Israel, for the US, holds more importance than Ukraine. Comes the time, the United States will not hesitate in pulling out of Ukraine and divert to Israel. However, the US is faced with another existential crisis facing historic shortages of manpower and facing challenges in recruiting Gen-Z into the army. Thus, the crisis is two-fold – on one hand the US is stretching out of control and on the other, manpower shortages limit the efficacy of US operations throughout the world.
If the US pulls out of Ukraine, then Russia will have won the war, with Ukraine signing a peace deal under what is called the ‘terms of surrender’. This would be a massive publicity blow for the US. Consistently losing wars with no benefits in sight might deter the coming generation from joining the military altogether, which may exacerbate the already critical manpower shortage. In an interview, Col. Douglas MacGregor (R), who has served in the US Army said that the United States’ desperation has forced it to now recruit foreigners to plug the gap. How that would affect the internal dynamics in the US will be interesting.
Nevertheless, the omnipresent strategy applied by the US after the Second World War is starting to prove to be a burden rather than an advantage. The US adversaries are no longer weak states. It is true that during the Cold War the US had one main adversary to contain – however, this is no more the case. China, Russia and Iran have emerged as staunch economic, military, and political oppositions to the US grand global strategy and the US seems unwilling, rather unable to contain them. In short, these opponents of the US have opened so many avenues that the US seems confused in prioritizing and managing them, hence the overstretching.
With Ukraine lost, somewhere in the near future, and if the war in the Middle East persists with the US throwing all its weight behind Israel, this would provide an opportunity for China to settle the Taiwan question once and for all before the US preoccupation ends. The United States, as of now, does not have a Defense Pact with Taiwan. It did so, from 1955 to 1979. Following US rapprochement with People’s Republic of China, the Defense Pact was converted to the Taiwan Relations Act which does not have any military applications other than the US providing arms and munitions to bolster Taiwan’s “self-defense” capabilities. That is not impressive especially in face of a towering Chinese military equipped with state of the art war machines and devastating array of precision missiles which range from supersonic to hypersonic ones, some of which are maneuverable giving them higher chances of evading Taiwan’s weak air defense systems.
US formal engagement in the Red Sea area will de-facto be a greenlight for Russia to intensify its offensive in Ukraine to bring the almost two-years long war to an end. In the East, it may provide an impetus to the Chinese policymakers to consider armed offensive on Taiwan. The US, however, has India, a strong yet confused and unreliable ally in the Indian Ocean Region. India can substantially bolster US-allied naval strength in South and South East Asia but India is also a major stakeholder in the BRICS. How India will balance between its increasing involvement with the US and its regional and global aspirations for which it has also sided with US archrivals Russia and China, is a dilemma which only time will solve.
Major wars have always been instrumental in changing the status-quo. The Napoleonic Wars culminated in the Concert of Europe. The First and Second World Wars in congruence culminated in the bi-polar world order of the Cold War. The End of the Cold War, which was owed to extensive but indirect military-economic tussle between the Soviet Union and the US culminated in the brief unipolar world order. Will the current global crisis culminate in the decline of the US and the emergence of multi-polarity? It seems highly likely.
