The Interim Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi during a conversation with Senator Mushahid Hussain on the sidelines of the conference on Palestine in Tehran claimed that most of the issues between Pakistan and the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) had been sorted out and that both were close to striking a deal but Islamabad backed out.
It is to be noted here that TTP unilaterally ended cease fire 28 November 2022 after appointment of present COAS. However, before that talks between the Govt of Pakistan (GOP) and the TTP had already come to a standstill due to various contentious demands of the TTP, the most pertinent of which were:
1) Discontinuation of the Pakistani military outposts in the NMDs, implying a complete withdrawal of troops.
2) Reversal of the 25th Constitutional Amendment of 2018 and an end to the merger of the NMDs into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
3) Enforcement of TTP’s version of the Shariah Law through the Nizam-i-Adl regulation in Malakand division, citing their rejection of the Pakistani constitution as un-Islamic
4) Freedom of movement for the TTP’s members without surrendering arms and activities in the Malakand division
In other words, the conditions sought by the violent extremist group were in direct contradiction to Pakistan’s constitution. Yet, the Afghan Interim Govt has been insisting Pakistan to pursue peace talks with a tactically weak and ideologically opposed non-state actor, means GOP conceding to TTP’s implausible and unviable demands outlined above.
When the talks were underway, a temporary resettlement of TTP members was allowed for those who agreed to lay arms and accept the constitution of Pakistan. However, due to their clandestine connivance with Afghan Taliban, instead of adopting to a normal way of life those men resorted to their old ways and started regrouping.
This indicates that they were looking for opportunity to resettle their people in the garb of talks and once done, they withdrew from the pact and started to the fight again.
The reversal of the 25th Amendment of 2018 is the central point of contention between the GOP and the TTP as it potentiates issue of the status and treatment of the NMDs.
A reversal of merger of NMDs would not only be a constitutional and democratic violation but will also have alarming ramifications not only for the governance and protection of the area and its people, but also for the state-society relations that have yet to be fully cultivated in what was once a territory neglected by the state, governed by the draconian FCR. Such a concession to the TTP would be seen as effectively ceding control of the region and its people to the TTP which therefore is unacceptable.
25th Amendment lays out a series of steps for full merger, such as the rehabilitation of IDPs, investments in infrastructure (both housing and commercial reconstruction), service delivery of socio-economic development programs and above all a functional civil administrative setup corresponding to human and physical development in the area. Until then military may represent the state’s only option to engage the region effectively. Such commitments have been clearly officiated under the constitutional amendment. While considering the first condition, it must be noted that there is a marked difference between military presence along the border and presence in the tribal belt for operations and other paramilitary functions. The former will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future but the TTP wants both to be reversed.
In the latter case, following the merger of the NMDs with KP, a reduction in military presence and operations may be feasible. However, the complete withdrawal of the military may not be. Any possibility of withdrawing deployed military (on borderlands or in NMDs) should be the result of an internal calculus facilitated by resource availability, improved economic and social indicators, the strict enforcement of the rule of law in the region, and regional cooperation by responsible state actors, and not the result of appeasing a terrorist group like the TTP.
Additionally, the process of merger necessitates the establishment of elected local bodies and the introduction of judicial reforms to mainstream both the parliamentary and judicial processes in the region. Hence, any degree of acceptance of this demand to enforce TTP’s own will in law and justice would imply complicating the terms and existential spirit of the merger. This would create a dual model of governance and consequently run the risk of non-constitutional institutions which would imply a violation of the primacy of the constitution and hence is non-negotiable.
The Shariah Nizam-i-Adl Regulation, 2009 (Order of Justice) is operational in Malakand division since April 2009 – a regulation that was passed by Pakistan’s central government that formally established Sharia law in the Malakand division and is technically still in effect. Hence, such a demand is implausible in its entirety.
Given the potential implications of GOP ceding to TTP’s demands, a peace deal with TTP is no more on the cards due to their earlier deception.
Accusing State of Pakistan for backing out of talks by Afghan FM is a clear representation of Afghan Taliban’s strategy to shift militants into Pakistan’s territory and create instability within erstwhile FATA, such an instability also serves their claim on Pakhtun areas of Pakistan. Hence, a comment on international forum is not an isolated statement but a strategically thought out narrative.
Pakistan had set clear conditions for any deal with TTP that include: surrender arms, accept the writ of State, a fully functional state system would extend to NMDs, and FATA merger was and is still a red line. Hence, accepting any deal short of above conditions would amount to the weakening of Pakistan. Since there are no negotiations going on with the TTP, it is incumbent upon Afghan authorities to refrain from siding with the terrorist group, fulfill their neighbourly responsibility, take action against TTP elements and rein them in so that the terror threat against Pakistan from Afghan soil could be eliminated.
