The stubborn refusal to look reality in the face and instead wish for a ‘good daddy saviour’ has been our norm for 75 years. The advocacy of non-realistic planning, the inability to make timely decisions, and the lack of focus on homegrown measures: these are all continuously replaced by dreams of biogas, hydrogen, creating a market for rice stubble, renewable energy potential and coal gasification as our saviour.
Only a country with an analytical mind can find real solutions, instead of believing in fantastical things being done in the West. Besides, according to the UN trade chief, the rich use green policies to hold back the poor.
Our five-year plans are devoid of action, plans and strategy. The evaluation of Thar, Riko Diq, EXIMP Bank, hydel and nuclear projects reaffirm this. But they also identify process improvements to bring change – if we want to. Who will bell the cat?
Our Planning Commission must become the equivalent of China’s NDRC, which was established as the State Planning Commission in 1952. It is the third ranked executive department, and functions as a macroeconomic management agency with broad administrative and planning control over China’s economy. Its subsidiary is the National Data and National Energy Administration, which is responsible for energy policy, decision-making, formulating development strategies, coordinating energy development as well as international cooperation on energy.
Plans are also being considered to reduce the industry subsidization of consumers and to ensure consistency of pricing; SHC stay and APTMA lobbying will delay matters. Citing Bangladesh has backfired as it went under an IMF programme, and now needs to manage its $5 billion circular debt with increasing CAD. Our refinery industry has now started to export furnace oil when pushed and rent seeking was denied
The ‘ostrich phenomenon’ has continued, and there have been meaningful efforts in spurts to develop alternative sustainable resources based on individual initiatives, rather than a well thought-out plan with timely decisions.
A new beginning has to take place with the 13th Five Year Plan (2024-2029) by discarding ‘hopium’, and by challenging Winston Churchill “I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle”.
It has been repeatedly confirmed that raising tariffs does not reduce circular debt and is contained by regular increases in line with cost. The reduction requires distinct alternate measures in parallel.
The chart below by DEA Pakistan depicts the need to price energy in an understandable unit, so as to enable comparison and fuel choice by consumers.
