Yes, if it can manage to successfully come out of its current polycrisis that threatens its sheer existence as a nation and as a federation. This polycrisis is not just a political and economic crisis but also a security crisis and quite possibly the worst since the separation of East Pakistan in 1971. The only way out of this predicament is to truly implement the rule of law and democracy. The old tried and trusted models of martial laws and hybrid regimes will not work. For all the so called pundits who think that economy can prosper without rule of law and political stability, they need to think again before it is too late. For Pakistan to survive and thrive in the next 25 years, a shock therapy is required throughout the system including its political and economic structures. This shock therapy cannot wait any longer.
No, Pakistan is unlikely to survive in its current shape and form if it continues to be on a path that it has been for the past several decades. The current system of status quo if continued will only ensure balkanization of Pakistan over the coming decades. Both establishment and the elite need to change their entire thinking since there is no simple way out of the wrong trajectory Pakistan is currently on. The existing system is completely dysfunctional and entirely based upon serving the elite. New and fresh out of box thinking is required together with truth and reconciliation which takes into consideration Pakistan’s own history and reality and not something concocted by its establishment and the elite.
While it has been happening gradually over the last 75 years, Pakistan of today seems to be one where nation is suffering from a chronic illness, federation is taking its last breaths and the state is acting as if everything is hunky dory. At times, it feels as if we may have become a nation of zombies with a certain numbness across the body politic. The myriad of problems that Pakistan faces today have been multiplying over the last several decades and now include challenges related to population growth, climate change, radicalism amongst others.
Most of us who were born after 1947, opened our eyes in a free and independent nation of Pakistan so why does it still feel that we live in a prison of sorts where even basic amenities of life are not available to a common citizen. Does it have to do with the fact that foreign colonizers who left in 1947 were simply replaced by our own indigenous colonizers?
Whether Pakistan survives the next 25 years is also dependent upon internal and external forces. The interaction between the internal forces or players that include military, judiciary, politicians /political parties, legal fraternity and general population and who amongst these players will ultimately emerge as the most powerful will decide if Pakistan will survive and thrive. Will Punjab as the biggest province throw its weight behind the federation, rule of law and democracy or will it continue to be silent spectator as it has been for decades. Will people ever wake up and demand their rights accorded to them by the country’s constitution.
Western powers particularly USA, Russia, China, India and others including their interests in the region and how smartly and effectively Pakistan navigates the muddy waters of the geo-political games will also define to a certain degree whether Pakistan will continue to survive intact over the coming few decades especially in view of the fact that it is the only nuclear power in the Islamic world.
Sometimes it is useful to read and understand what one’s adversaries are saying. In his essay, Pakistan 2030, Colonel Harinder Singh depicts four future scenarios for Pakistan that include functional, fragile, failing and fragmented Pakistan. Without going into details of these scenarios and what it means for Pakistan and Pakistanis, we should all imagine a Pakistan that not only survives as a functional nation but a thriving one for all its people. For this to happen, prayers alone will not help. Similarly, economics and economy alone will not be sufficient without the rule of law especially for sustainable economic growth. Politics, economics and security issues are all interconnected. We do not want Jinnah’s Pakistan or Iqbal’s Pakistan, what is needed is peoples’ Pakistan. The need for shock therapy is now before it is too late to turn back the clock.
