Tensions between Pakistan and Iran increased dramatically on January 16, this year after the Iranian drone and missile strikes in Baluchistan province on the alleged Jaish ul-Adl bases in a violation of a sovereignty state and total disregard of international norms.
According to Pakistan’s foreign office, this audacious Iranian act claimed lives of two children, while injuring another three.
Pakistan summoned Iranian Charge de Affairs to lodge a strong protest. This was followed by Pakistan recalling its ambassador from Tehran and expelling Iranian ambassador to Pakistan, which clearly indicated Islamabad’s restraint despite public pressure. However, Iran’s failure to render an unconditional apology necessitated Pakistan’s befitting response.
In this regard, a statement released by the military’s media wing, the Inter-Services Public Relations on January 18, 2024 said that Pakistan’s armed forces carried out effective strikes against the hideouts inside Iran’s Sistan-Balolchistan province used by terrorists responsible for recent attacks in Pakistan.
The statement further claimed that hideouts used by terrorist organisations—Balochistan Liberation Army Balochistan (BLA) and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), and notorious terrorists, including Dosta alias Chairman, Bajjar alias Soghat, Sahil alias Shafaq, Asghar alias Basham and Wazir alias Wazi, amongst others were successfully struck in an intelligence-based operation, codenamed ‘Marg Bar Sarmachar’.
The country’s political leadership, including President Dr Arif Alvi and representatives from various parties, and ex-servicemen commended the Iranian attacks. They lauded the response of Pakistan’s armed forces’ strikes describing them as an inevitable action for national security.
Nevertheless, after the start of Gaza war, Tehran has been increasingly forceful in its war-like posturing against its neighbouring countries. The recent attacks in Syria, Iraq and now in Pakistan are a very clear display of Iranian attitude. Such a stance is likely to lead to a wider conflict in a region which is already grappling with delicate balance in the prevailing rivalries.
Besides its support for dissenting groups in neighbouring countries, the Iranian belligerent acts have reduced the world focus on Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
It is notable that in the recent years, there had been manifold developments signifying improving relations between Islamabad and Tehran. The Mand-Pishin Border Sustenance Marketplace, one of six border markets planned for the two neighboring countries’ shared border was jointly inaugurated in 2022. The inauguration of the Polan-Gabd Electricity Transmission Line capable of carrying additional 100MW of electricity from Iran to Pakistan was another such project. There were also plans for increasing the bilateral trade between the two countries.
These developments showed absence of any tensions between the two countries, while just hours before the Iranian strikes, Iranian Foreign Minister had met Pakistan’s Caretaker Prime Minister
Anwaarul Haq Kakar on the sidelines of Davos economic summit in Switzerland, while Iran’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Hassan Kazemo Qami, visited Islamabad and Pakistan’s Sind province governor was also visiting Tehran.
The two countries have a history of blaming each other for supporting the hostile elements, while Pakistan has always been cooperative in addressing Iranian concerns. As a result of Pakistan’s positive attitude, it was the only country in the neighbourhood with which Iran enjoyed better ties as compared to her other neighbours. In the recent past, Pakistan had even tried for a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Notably, Kalbushan Yadav, an Indian Naval officer, who was captured by Pakistani intelligence agencies, was in possession of a valid Iranian passport with fake name. He was found guilty of undertaking terrorist acts inside Pakistan. In addition to Indian spies working against Pakistan, many Baloch insurgents also took refuge on Iranian soil.
It is mentionable that the militants of BLF and BLA often target gas projects, infrastructure and security posts in Balochistan, and have begun launching terror attacks in other parts of the country.
They also target Chinese projects, and intermittently kill Chinese workers despite Pakistan’s assurances that it is doing all it can to protect the Chinese projects.
And Balochistan is a key location in China’s huge multi-billion project of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which is part of China’s OBOR or BRI. India was openly opposing the CPEC and the US also joined New Delhi.
However, there are multiple communication channels between the both countries, and Islamabad has always been willing to take action against any miscreants.
It is noteworthy that timing of Iranian attack makes Indian External Affairs minister visit to Tehran very intriguing as the visit had concluded just two days prior to this development. Hence, possibility of India prompting Iran for the act cannot be ruled out. Iranian rulers are considered to be rational and pragmatic actors in its decision making. It understands the regional dynamics and cannot afford to be antagonistic to three neighbouring countries which are going through hostile relations with the US. However, the recent moves show the possibility of hardliners taking over the decision making in Tehran. In such an eventuality, the decision making process may have relied too much on world’s focus towards Gaza and Ukraine. They may also have considered Pakistan’s focus on the forthcoming elections as well as presence of a caretaker government providing them a favourable situation. In these terms, Indian encouragement might have acted as a catalyst. And regardless of the reasons and decision making process, continuation of this trend, would lead to Iran’s isolation in the region and neighborhood. Moreover, India would like to see Pakistan embroiled in a conflict which would also serve the US interest by weakening Iran.
Nonetheless, Pakistan is neither Syria nor Iraq; its policy of restraint cannot be stretched too far. Pakistan is capable of responding in kind, and has proven record of responding effectively against a much larger and stronger adversary. Additionally, regardless of type of government and
focus on elections, the nation has always remained united against an external threat. This was once again proven by PAF’s retaliatory precision air strike against Baloch insurgents taking refuge in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province.
In a recent development, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has expressed profound concern over the escalating tensions between Pakistan and Iran, emphasising the urgen¬cy of the situation and urging both nations to de-escalate.
China, a close ally of both Pakistan and Iran, said that it was willing to mediate between the two countries after the military actions. Russia and Turkey also expressed similar thoughts.
Meanwhile, the National Security Committee meeting was held on January 19, this year under the Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar, with all military services chiefs in attendance, to discuss the current crisis. National security review concluded that “the two countries would mutually be able to overcome minor irritants through dialogue and diplomacy and pave the way to further deepen their historic relations”.
It urged Iran to use existing communication channels to address security concerns.
Kakar also told a cabinet meeting following the security huddle that it was in the “interest of both countries” to return to relations as they stood before Iran’s strikes.
On January 18, 2024, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it was committed to good neighbourly relations with Pakistan, but called on Islamabad to prevent the establishment of “terrorist bases” on its soil.
Pakistan issued a similar statement with its Ministry of Foreign Affairs saying that its “sole” reason for the retaliatory attacks was “in pursuit of Pakistan’s own security and national interest, which is paramount and cannot be compromised”.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani spoke with the Foreign Minister of Iran, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.
Underscoring the close brotherly relations between Pakistan and Iran, the Foreign Minister expressed Pakistan’s desire to work with Iran based on spirit of mutual trust and cooperation.
The Foreign Minister Jilani stressed that respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty must underpin this cooperation.
The two Foreign Ministers agreed that working level cooperation and close coordination on counter terrorism and other aspects of mutual concern should be strengthened. They also agreed to de-escalate the situation.
The return of Ambassadors of the two countries to their respective capitals was also discussed.
