AT PENPOINT
Pakistan has at last undergone the general election that was due three months back, and seems to have yielded the same result as came about 35 years ago, back in December 1988, when the PPP emerged as the largest single party in the National Assembly, and went on to form the government, even though it was at that time opposed to the establishment of the time, which had lost its leader, President Ziaul Haq, in the fateful plane crash in August.
Mian Nawaz Sharif must be experiencing a moment of déjà vu, because he attempted then to do what he is attempting now: form a government by collecting all the disparate elements in the National Assembly into a single bloc, which will give him a majority. In 1988, this effort, disclosed then PML Secretary-General Iqbal Ahmad Khan some time later, was made because the provincial elections took place three days later, and it was essential to prevent the PML vote from collapsing, The strategy seems to have worked, because Mian Nawaz emerged as leader of the largest party in the Punjab Assembly, and with the help of independents formed the government.
However, this time around, the situation has significant differences. Back in 1988, the PPP was still a cohesive parliamentary party, with the Forward Blocs in national and Punjab parliamentary parties still in the future. The PPP and the IJI were rivals, not potential partners. Even now they are rivals, but it is significant that the first contact between parties over government formation was between the PML(N) and the PPP.
The imponderable factor has to be the PTI-backed independents. They were the single largest party in the National Assembly and had an apparent stranglehold in the KP Assembly, and were narrowly second in the Punjab Assembly. Incidentally, that was where the first desertion took place, as a PTI-backed MPA-elect from Rajanpur announced his support for the PML(N). The PTI should have been concerned by this, but not worried, because the MPA-elect in question came from a constituency known less for ideological commitment than the pursuit of power. The MPA-elect probably jumped ship because he felt that the Punjab government was going to be formed by the PML(N). Whether he had calculated that he could win the next election without the PTI, provided he had the blessings of the provincial government, or whether he felt that the next election was far off enough, he clearly felt the PTI ticket was something he could afford to forgo.
The PTI- backed independents are an awkward presence. The Assembly Secretariats will obviously be in a tizzy, not knowing how to seat them. The first issue is whether to seat them on the Treasury or Opposition benches. Then there are two types of independents; the ones backed by the PTI, and those who genuinely do not belong to any party. In this scenario, there is the danger of those backed by the PTI voting against the party line. Another difficulty is the allocation of reserved seats, which is done by excluding independents. Normally, the parties do not gain any advantage that way. Normally, the PTI would take its share of seats, but now, if the independents are excluded, the PML(N) and PPP will take those seats. The PTI would have got 26 or 27 reserved seats, while the PML(N) would have got 12 or 13, while the PPP would have got seven. If PTI independents are excluded, the PML(N) would get about 34 reserved seats, the PPP about 24, and the PTI none.
Perhaps the main problem is that the PPP finds itself talking to a wall in trying to talk to the PTI. These are not negotiations that can be handled by anyone less than the party head, and Imran Khan is in jail. The PML(N) would probably rather not talk to him. However, if the PTI independents were to elect a leader, the PML(N) might be willing to talk to him. Similarly the PPP.
One of the clear lessons of the election results was that the voter had forgotten the May 9 incidents, or maybe had not allowed it to influence him in the first place. One sign of this had actually come during the election, when neither the PPP nor the PML(N) based its narrative on PTI culpability in the attacks. The PTI also did not mention it, for obvious reasons. However, as far as the elections go, the PTI seems to have lived it down.
However, no one is discussing how to fix the economy. That is one of the glaring problems with the election. The absence of a narrative from any party means that, whoever forms the government, the same policies will probably be followed. Going by the performances of the PTI, the PPP and the PML(N), it seems that policies will be in the hands of bureaucrats and the IMF.
The PTI is benefiting from a situation where the party obtaining a plurality rather than a simple majority tries to form the government. The first occasion when a party got an actual simple majority was in 1970, when the Awami League swept East Pakistan, and as a result was poised to form the government. Then the rest is history, and there were elections in West Pakistan in 1977. The PPP obtained 155 out of 200 seats. There was a movement against those elections, with the opposition PNA claiming they were rigged, and about 100 protesters were killed.
The 1985 elections were partyless, but subsequently, in 1988, 1990 and 1993, no party obtained an absolute majority, though the party winning a plurality formed the government each time. In 1997, the PML(N) won 137 seats, an absolute majority which allowed it to form the government on its own. That government ended abruptly in 2000, when Gen Musharaf imposed martial law.
After he resumed the holding of elections, no party has ever obtained an absolute majority. There was one previous PPP-PML(N) coalition, back in 2013, but that only lasted 48 days, from March 25 to 12 May. The PDM coalition was more successful, as it lasted from 11 April 2022 to 12 August 2023. The first example shows that the PPP should not head a coalition. The second shows that Mian Shehbaz Sharif might make a fist at heading a coalition. It might be noted that PPP attacks on the PML(N) focused on Mian Nawaz.
No wonder he refused to become PM. But will he remain in Lahore as backseat driver for daughter Maryam when she becomes CM, or spend a lot of time in Islamabad?
The election is being presented as fair because of the PTI performance. At the same time, there is a considerable controversy over the forms 45 and 47 of the ECP. The PTI is claiming that it won more seats than the ECP declared it did. One of the essential factors in the conduct of the election, that of getting everyone to accept the results, was not fulfilled. However, that might be more for partisan reasons rather than because the poll was unfair. In 1977, whether or not the election was unfair or not, the opposition’s allegations coincided enough with people’s experience of the polling to fuel the anti-PPP movement Never afterwards did the average voter’s experience coincide with losing parties’ claims.
Another point worth noting is that the PTI managed to win a third consecutive election in KP, and the PPP in Sindh. Not since Mian Nawaz won consecutive terms in Punjab in 1985, 1988 and 1990, has that been achieved by any party in any province. Incidentally, Punjab has been a true battleground, as no one has got a majority, and the PTI has lost after gaining control.
However, no one is discussing how to fix the economy. That is one of the glaring problems with the election. The absence of a narrative from any party means that, whoever forms the government, the same policies will probably be followed. Going by the performances of the PTI, the PPP and the PML(N), it seems that policies will be in the hands of bureaucrats and the IMF.
One of the benefits of democracy is supposed to the formulation of pro-people policies. It is also supposed to bring political stability. Neither seems likely to happen.
