The PTI claims that it will form the next government. Now that the Sunni Ittehad Council has lent it its name, it will now emerge in the National Assembly as the single largest group, and establish a presence in the Sindh and Punjab Assemblies, as well as almost monpolize the KP Assembly. It claims an absolute majority in the National Assembly, but until it establishes that, its claim that it will form the next government may be subject to some doubt. The problem it has is that being the largest group in the National Assembly is not good enough. What is needed is to show a simple majority in the House. That the PTI is unable to do, unless there are a large number of results reversed, as it claims they were reversed in the final result, demanding that the Forms 45 issued by the presiding officers of the polling stations did not tally with the final Forms 47 issued by the Returning Officers. Meanwhile, the ECP committee set up to probe the allegations by the former Commissioner Rawalpindi proceeded, by recording statements of more ROs of constituencies in Rawalpindi Division. One effect is that the ECP has missed the deadline of Thursday for putting on its website the scanned copies of Form 45 and Form 47. This is likely to add to the doubts surrounding the election.
While the PTI, now the SIC, relies on its status as the largest group, it does not seem willing to engage in the tedious business of cobbling together the alliance it needs to form the government. Meanwhile, the PML(N), which has secured the support of the PPP, and thus has a basic strength in the House, is now engaging with other parties, including the MQM(P), the JUI(F) and the BAP. If it can thus show a greater strength in the House than the PTI, it will secure the Prime Ministership.
It should be noted that the next government will have a very hard row to hoe, as it will face two major crises almost immediately. The first will be to reach a new agreement with the IMF as the present Standby Agreement comes to an end; the next will be to prepare and pass the next year’s budget. The budget will contain many of the measures agreed with the IMF to get its package. That is the task all, including the PMLL(N), are dreading.
