Politics is a market where every event has the potential to yield a profit —even an electoral defeat. In a way, ‘denying’ PTI their mandate allows them to play on their home ground, where they have performed most effectively: the opposition. It is a golden opportunity for PTI to make life miserable for the coalition government on the one hand and effectively rejuvenate its party on the other.
It is just over two weeks now since one of the most contentious general elections in Pakistan took place. Every coming day offers a new revelation that intensifies the shadows of doubts over the transparency of elections. Hitherto, the official results announced by ECP suggest a fractured parliament where at least two major political parties will have to scratch each other’s back. In this milieu, negotiations are underway and PDM 2.0 appears as the most probable parliamentary scenario. Consequently, the PTI-backed Khan’s cornered tigers (who ironically garnered the most seats) are expected to grace the opposition benches.
As of now, every coming hour brings an expected development that adds to the uncertainty of the situation. But one thing is quite certain if (capricious) Qaidi (prisoner) number 804 plays his cards right, a tabdeeli (revolution) vis-a-vis PTI and power would be inevitable
While such a political arrangement is being considered an utter defeat in the rank and files of the PTI, its leadership must realize that it might also be a blessing in disguise for them.
Despite all odds, the PTI was able to mobilize its supporters and secure the highest number of seats in the National Assembly. However, the PTI must understand that materializing an electoral majority into a government is not always the most feasible decision to take.
Back in 2018, the PTI also received a huge mandate from the public. The PTI Chairman had his dream cabinet on board and the 100-day plan was ready to be implemented. Besides the centre, the PTI had formed governments in Punjab (the centrepiece of Pakistani politics), KP, and a fair share of seats in the Sindh and Balochistan Assemblies. Khan was then the establishment’s darling, and the stage was set for him to lay the foundations of his Riasat-e-Madina.
However, just after a few months, the miraculous titanic of the envisaged Riyasat-e-Madina was seen trembling in deep waters. It found itself confronted with dangerous icebergs of economy, accountability, intra-party unity, legislation, and most importantly the relationship with its manufacturers—the establishment.
Yet today, tables have turned, and sides have switched. Although the popularity of Khan is at an all-time high, the atmosphere is unsuitable for PTI to sit in the driving seat. Numerous factors warrant this claim.
A grave mistake that PTI made in 2018 was to form a crippled multiparty government. It stood on the crutches of the infamous kingmaker party (MQM), political pawns of the establishment (BAP and 13 independent candidates), and some swing politicians that always flew towards the dominant tide. With such an arrangement, keeping its allies on board became the primary headache for the PTI government, preventing it from making the required decisions for national development. By the same account, acceding to any power-sharing formula this time would lead them into the same trap.
In elections 2024, if the establishment had allowed PTI to form a weak government in the centre, the resulting crisis would have been the ‘endgame’ for PTI’s politics. Was it a missed opportunity or a hasty decision out of fear by the establishment?
The support base of PTI might have grown exponentially, but their party dynamics have become convoluted. In 2018, their cabinet was composed of political heavyweights notably their Finance Marvel, Asad Umer, Seasoned Diplomat, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Railways Icon, Sheikh Rasheed, and so on. Most importantly, they had amongst them their Kaptaan (captain) leading from the front. However, as we speak, PTI finds itself structurally disintegrated with half of its senior leadership either defected, incarcerated, or (forced) retired.
A comparative economic analysis of 2018 and 2023-24 explains the rest. Even if we observe some fundamental economic indicators such as Debt to GDP ratio, unemployment, CPI (Consumer Price Index), and Trade Balance, the figures of 2023-24 appear devastating in comparison to those of 2018. For Instance, the inflation rate which stood at 3.8 percent in 2018, plummeted to a record-high 38 percent in May 2023. Do I need to add the resources here? Therefore, the scenario of PTI taking charge of the country would not only have been a political predicament for them but also an economic apocalypse for Pakistan.
Consequently, does it mean that PTI should cease to demand its allegedly stolen mandate? Should they just keep a blind eye to all of the electoral irregularities? The simple answer to these questions is in the negative. They should continue, even intensify, their political struggle against the current setup. However, they will have to transform their medium of protest from dharna on the roads to hardcore opposition in the Parliament.
Global history teaches us that long-serving governments such as that of Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, and Nelson Mandela were preceded by their effective roles as the leaders of the Opposition. If PTI desires to take the crown, Imran Khan needs to follow suit.
In 2024, Pakistan will perhaps witness its weakest and most controversial government in history. With the PPP deciding not to be a part of the federal cabinet, the PML(N) will lead a House of 346 members with barely 100 seats from its party. Let alone the constitutional amendments and legislations, even passing the federal budget would be a notable obstacle for the crippled Sharif Government. Considering the perilous nature of the government, the PTI’s formidable opposition could be the last nail in the PDM’s coffin.
This oppositional tsunami might be the happy ending Imran Khan and his entourage have been longing for.
Unfortunately, history repeated itself, and the election season culminated in a farrago of failures and controversies. Nevertheless, if a long-term analysis is made, the PTI has a lot to cheer about. A stupendous national mandate, global coverage of their narrative, and an absolute majority in KP are major skirmishes that the PTI has won. Most importantly, it buys the PTI some time to rejuvenate as a structured political unit that can deliver effectively.
As of now, every coming hour brings an expected development that adds to the uncertainty of the situation. But one thing is quite certain if (capricious) Qaidi (prisoner) number 804 plays his cards right, a tabdeeli (revolution) vis-a-vis PTI and power would be inevitable.
