It became clear by Wednesday (PST) that the most widely watched election in the world, the American presidential election, will be a rematch of the 2020 election, in which Democrat Joe Biden defeated incumbent President Donald Trump. As the primary process played out, both men won the delegates necessary to win the nomination at the convention later in the year. The major change is that two men are four years older. Considering their ages, that is not a negligible factor. Mr Biden will turn 83 just before the Inaugural due next January. Mr Trump will be 78. The USA is becoming a gerontocracy, a little like the USSR did just before Mikhail Gorbachev was brought in to preside over its fall.
Another couple of changes that have occurred is that Russia invaded Ukraine, and Israel is trying to kill off the Gazans. No one is sure how Mr Trump might deal with Ukraine, especially after the Republicans in Congress have shown opposition to aid. As for the Gaza issue, President Biden supports Israel to the extent of vetoing any UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire, but Mr Trump favours Israel even more deeply. Arab American voters face a dilemma, for to switch to Mr Trump would be like cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face, but their being solidly democratic is getting Gaza no benefit. Foreign policy issues have not historically determined voter preferences, and the persistence of inflation is a cause for concern.
Mr Trump has set up a contest which has not been seen for more than a century: a one-term President trying for a comeback. Grover Cleveland, the Democrat first elected in 1888, defeated in 1892, was nominated again in 1896, and won. At the moment, things are looking well for Mr Trump, because the opinion polls show him with a five-point lead. At the same time, President Biden is suffering his lowest ever approval ratings. Though incumbent Presidents usuallly win re-election, the signs do not seem good for Mr Biden at the moment. If Mr Trump returns to the White House, the world will not just watch his actions on Ukraine and Gaza, but his `actions on such issues as climate change, where he is expected to reverse the reversal of his actions by President Biden, which were in turn a reversal of his predecessor’s actions. As they say, it isn’t over till its over.
