The mega deal is going to alter the course of the Middle East, which relates to the USA’s potential deal with Saudi Arabia. The deal covers three pacts: the Saudi-US security pact, Saudi-Israeli normalization, and the pathway to a Palestinian state. However, the three aspects of the deal combined are difficult to pursue since Israel considers Palestine a security threat, but at the same time, normalization with Saudi Arabia is deemed significant. Besides, the US-Saudi security accord is almost unrealizable without the consent of Israel in it. The mega deal holds utmost importance for all the stakeholders.
Saudi Arabia engineers its foreign policy with an eye on Iran, a perceived foe of the kingdom. Perceived threats from Tehran towards Riyadh are based on sectarian beliefs and regional competition. They accuse each other of orchestrating conspiracies and potential threats, but in all cases, avoid any direct attack. An example is when Saudi Arabia had blamed Iran for a 2019 missile and drone attack on its oil plants, which Tehran denies.
The possibility of success of this mega deal is lesser because the state of Palestine is the biggest challenge for the USA and Israel, so there may be a bilateral treaty between the USA and Saudi Arabia initially excluding Israel and Palestine, but as earlier mentioned, it will be arduous to be ratified by two-thirds of the Senate without the consent of Israel. Thereafter, Israel and Saudi Arabia can tailor a deal for normalization without any deal for the state of Palestine but a ceasefire or something else
However, both rivals are engaged in proxy wars in the Middle East, including ib Syria and Yemen. Besides, Iran’s nuclear programme raises concerns for the kingdom, so it has pledged to engineer its nuclear weapons if Iran does so; which is even deepening the concerns. So, the most important incentive in this treaty for Saudi Arabia is that whenever it is attacked by Iran, the USA will definitely defend it and will protect it in such a manner as it is committed to providing non-NATO security to Japan and South Korea.
Apart from this, the Biden administration was jolted in March last year when Saudi Arabia and Iran announced they had agreed to a Chinese-brokered deal to restore relations. This explicitly depicts how the USA wants to keep the kingdom dependent on it, selling its security and weapons, along with strengthening its presence in the region.
However, the deal will further deepen Saudi Arabia’s dependence on the USA, which started when there was an oil embargo or the first oil shock in the world during the Arab-Israeli war. As a result, OPEC countries imposed an oil embargo, which had adverse impact on the Western world both in the short and long term. Afterwards, the USA knew that Saudi Arabia was a key player in oil and the Middle East, so it committed not to undergo another embargo and kicked off figuring out ways for the Petrodollar to back the USA. Since Saudi Arabia had multiplied its earnings in the embargo, royals of the kingdom pursued higher studies in schools and universities in Europe and the USA, owned fancy cars, and decorated their houses in western style. This was the solution for the petrodollar.
Petrodollar is a system of purchasing oil in US dollars from oil-exporting countries that guarantees a fixed amount for the USA to purchase crude oil at the same rate and influences its currency globally.
Initially, the USA toiled to garner some contracts in the kingdom to make a way towards it; for this, she worked on infrastructure, electricity, modernizing the cities of Saudi Arabia, and improving the economy of Saudi Arabia. Later, the kingdom was scared of possible attacks from its enemies in the region, such as Iran and Israel. So, the USA committed to providing security and weapons to Riyadh and constructed a US airbase there. Since then, the USA has been selling weapons and providing security to Riyadh, constraining it to be almost dependent on US security.
Apart from this, for Saudi Arabia, the deal includes Washington’s assistance in building a civilian nuclear programme, boosting modern technology, and cooperation in artificial intelligence that will surely contribute to the social, economic, and digital well-being of Saudi Arabia in competition with its rivals or otherwise.
For the Biden Administration, the deal is win-win. On the one hand, it will export its technology, artificial intelligence, and weapons to the kingdom. On the other hand, the normalization of Saudi-Israeli ties will boost Biden’s election campaign. Since the Trump Administration brokered normalization between Israel and some Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Morocco, under the Abraham Accord, the competition for the Biden Administration is tough in this regard, so it is working on a normalization deal from the inception of its tenure to gain for its election campaign. However, the Trump Administration accepted Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory of western Sahara and took Sudan off the State Department sponsors of terrorism list for the normalization, so Saudi Arabia will be expecting more in exchange for the normalization, where the Biden Administration is working on it in the shape of a pathway to the Palestinian state and security and technology provision to it.
Besides, the Biden Administration’s key focus is on strengthening its position in the Middle East after China made inroads there. As part of the ‘great game competition’, the Middle East holds significance, so the Biden Aadministration will be committed to making allies there to extend its influence in the region and contain its arch-rival China’s way into the region. The treaty will help it secure its interest in this regard.
As a formal treaty, the security guarantee deal requires ratification by two-thirds of the Senate, but according to experts, the ratification of the mega deal by the Senate will be challenging because it is linked with the demand of the sovereign state of Palestine. However, Saudi Arabia does not desire to be subject to the vagaries of US politics or the US president in the White House, so it wants ratification to avoid situations like the Iran nuclear deal, which was first agreed upon by the Obama Administration but reversed later. The USA is apparently working for the two-state solution, but it will be a hard nut to crack for them to go for it since its close ally Israel is opposing it publicly and considering it a security threat.
Israel wants normalization with Saudi Arabia because of its economic and military clout and its leadership of the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia seems to be the last key player that can demand the sovereign state of Palestine, but after the normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the chances would be less than possible for any Palestinian state if it were not required in this deal.
But, it’s difficult for Israel to agree to a Palestinian state since it has a desire for the Ben Gurion Canal Plan (BGCP). The proposed plan is supported by the USA and is aimed at connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The canal’s route passes close to the northern border of Gaza, which was formerly home to 2 million people who have been displaced in the ongoing bombing of Israel, which will help her boost her trade and cut the prices of shipments. The entire so-called retaliation is designed to empty Gaza to execute the goal of the said canal. So, it suggests that any practical pathway to the state of Palestine is almost impossible.
Additionally, numerous other reasons imply that the practical pathway to the state of Palestine is almost undoable because Israel deems Palestine a security threat, as Netanyahu has articulated many times. Also, the Israeli public opposes any normalization with the kingdom for its human rights records and murder of Khashoggi, and it shall not even recognize any Palestinian state. The most difficult thing for Netanyahu in accepting a sovereign Palestine is that Netanyahu’s coalition government could collapse if he formally supported any plan for the creation of a Palestinian state because far-right members of his coalition strongly oppose it and want to reestablish Israeli settlements in Gaza. They have threatened to bring down the government if Netanyahu ends the war without ousting Hamas. For them, withdrawal without ousting Hamas from Gaza is a reward for Hamas, so they can undergo multiple challenges before coming to any possible conclusion of this deal.
The possibility of success of this mega deal is lesser because the state of Palestine is the biggest challenge for the USA and Israel, so there may be a bilateral treaty between the USA and Saudi Arabia initially excluding Israel and Palestine, but as earlier mentioned, it will be arduous to be ratified by two-thirds of the Senate without the consent of Israel. Thereafter, Israel and Saudi Arabia can tailor a deal for normalization without any deal for the state of Palestine but a ceasefire or something else.
