India’s general elections (fourth of the seventh stage) would end on 1st June 2024. Results would be announced on 4th June 2024. Predictions by political pundits (psephologists) are odd. Prashant
Kishore says the BJP could become the single largest party in West Bengal and Odisha. Besides, it could garner a considerable number of votes, if not seats, for the first time in Tamil Nadu.
But Yogendra Yadav, veteran former psephologist, now a member of Rahul Gandhi’s cross-country unity march for democracy, foresees Modi to lose. He expects Maharashtra and Bihar to be Modi’s Waterloo.
Past elections reflect that money power is a key factor determining who wins elections. Thus the BJP is a foregone conclusion.
Co\ngress party funds were frozen by a judicial order. Key challenger Kejriwal of am admi party was imprisoned before the election and released only for a short time. Indian farmers organised a year-long protest to resist mechanization of agriculture at the hands of “crony capitalism”. The
BJP enjoys an edge. It is supported by big business, the ilk of Ambanis and Adanis (crony capitalism).
The Muslims are downtrodden as highlighted by several official reports (Gopal, Sachar, etc). Yet they are targets of BJP’s wrath. There is a systematic campaign of persecution against the Muslim. A Hindu religious assembly urged Hindus to buy the latest arms and ammunition to exterminate the Muslim. Yogi Adityanath, saffron chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, in a video statement, said: ‘If they [Muslims] take one Hindu girl, we will take 100 Muslim girls. If they kill one Hindu, we’ll kill 100 Muslims (Bhaomick, Nilnjan Meet the militant monk spreading Islamophobia in India’, Washington Post, 24 March 2017 ). Yogi government repealed pre-requisite of two witnesses to register a marriage to validate forced marriage of a Hindu boy to a Muslim girl (Seth, Maulshree, Uttar Pradesh government considers relaxing norms to register Hindu marriage es’, Indian Express 13 May 2016).Two investigative panels, Cobra Post and Gulailo (2015) reported that the Hindutva groups used ‘violence, intimidation and blackmail to break up Hindu Muslim married couples (Deccan Herald, BJP, VHP, RSS nexus against “Love Jihad”)
Hindu militant organisation Bajrang Dal conducted an exercise with live arms. Some of the participants disguised themselves as Muslims. Later a group of 100 Hindus armed with weapons attacked Muslim community at Pedda, a hamlet on the outskirts of Bijnor city (Angad, Abhishek, , Bijnor violence:Before violence made 12 calls to cops, MLA, but no action was taken. Indian Express 18 Sep 2016The
US-based think tank Freedom House ranked India as only “partly free”. The report noted love jihad’ laws widespread crackdown on dissent, a crackdown on journalists discrimination against Muslims, blaming Muslims for transmitting the CORONA disease, and misuse of sedition laws.
Sedition laws have become handmaidens of India’s government under Narendra Modi to stifle dissent, incarcerate political opponents or persecute minorities, particularly the Muslim. Shouting a slogan, wall chalking, a social post of azadi (liberty), wearing a prayer cap, or offering prayer on adjoining roads when a mosque is overcrowded, could attract
sedition charges. Even interfaith marriages or cow-related offences could be tried as sedition. The Hindu-monk chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath, had directed his administration to try cow-related offences under the National Security Act.
Some states have passed love-jihad laws to prevent interfaith marriages. The over-ebullient Hindu extremists even haul such people to the police stations as have been happily married long before enactment of the law banning inter-faith marriages. We look upon the Indian Muslim as a homogeneous caste-free community. But, they too are stratified on the lines of the Hindu caste system. Fifteen percent ashrafia or nobility (Syed, Sheikh, Mughal, Pathan, etc or native upper caste converts like Rangad or Muslim Rajput, Taga or Tyagi Muslims, Garhe or Gaur Muslims, etc), descendents of the Arab or the Afghan, dominate 85 per cent low-caste Muslim ajlaf (backward Muslim) together with arzal (dalit Muslim).
The ‘high-caste’ Muslim, hand in glove with ruling political Brahmin-dominated parties, reap benefits. The low castes are left in the lurch. In case of communal riots, the low-caste Muslims bear the brunt.
The low caste Muslim suffer double persecution. One at the hands of the fanatic Hindu and secondly at that of the ‘syeds’.
Concluding reflections. If Modi gets a new term, he will try to enforce a Civil Code binding Muslims to monogamy. Ganvapi and several other mosques would be razed. Muslim share in civil and military services as well as in parliament would further diminish. Already the RSS has defined a Hindus the one who looks to Ayodhya not Mecca.
