Over the past century, the surge in greenhouse gas emissions has propelled global warming to the forefront of our planet’s challenges. With a temperature increase of 0.74°C, Earth has witnessed profound shifts in climate patterns, ushering in a cascade of natural disasters such as cyclones, floods, famines, and droughts. Climate change, marked by these events, has inflicted a range of detrimental impacts, including habitat degradation, deforestation, disruption of aquatic ecosystems, shifts in animal migration patterns, species extinction, and alterations to plant growth cycles.
Despite contributing minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan bears a severe brunt of the consequences of global warming. The shifting climate poses a grave threat to Pakistan’s rich biodiversity, accelerating habitat degradation and putting numerous species at risk of extinction, thereby jeopardizing both environmental sustainability and livelihoods. Moreover, the escalating frequency of natural disasters, such as floods and droughts, not only displaces communities but also strains the nation’s infrastructure. Over the last five decades, Pakistan has witnessed a surge in tropical cyclones, coinciding with a noticeable increase in annual mean surface temperatures. This phenomenon has been exacerbated by a decline in cloud cover and an uptick in sunshine hours, particularly evident in central Pakistan. Notably, Pakistan holds records for some of the most extreme weather events globally, including the highest temperatures ever recorded on Earth, at 53.7°C (128.7°F) in Turbat, Balochistan (May 28, 2017), and Moenjo Daro, Sindh (May 26, 2010). Similarly, Islamabad set a world record for rainfall with 620 mm (24 inches) in just ten hours on 23 July 2001. Furthermore, the Karachi Tidal Station highlights a steady increase of 1.1 mm per year in mean sea level over the past century, resulting in rampant coastal erosion and the loss of approximately 80 acres of land daily.
Pakistan ranks 125th on the Human Development Index and is anticipated to experience climate changes above the global average. The country’s susceptibility to various natural disasters significantly contributes to its long-term mortality rates. Factors such as high poverty levels, malnutrition, societal marginalization, and political instability exacerbate its vulnerability to such disasters. Ranking as the 8th most vulnerable nation to climate change in the 2023 Global Climate Risk Index by Germanwatch, Pakistan incurs an annual cost of $14 billion, equivalent to five percent of its GDP.
Climate variability has dire consequences for food security, leading to widespread malnutrition and catastrophic weather-related events, resulting in countless households grappling with food shortages nationwide. Furthermore, Pakistan contends with an annual median probability of severe meteorological and hydrological drought, with probabilities ranging from 25 percent to 65 percent across the country. Projections indicate a heightened risk of meteorological drought across all emissions scenarios, with substantial expansions of ecological zones exacerbating drought occurrences, thereby inflicting significant damage to crops and livelihoods.
A comprehensive financing strategy, involving both private sectors and international support, is essential for achieving sustainable and inclusive development. Given Pakistan’s vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change, urgent global action is imperative to avert heatwaves and safeguard lives.
A study by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (2021) reveals that Pakistan is facing a significant increase in global temperatures, with a potential rise of 1.3°C to 4.9°C by 2090. This rise is expected to be stronger than average, putting pressure on human health, livelihoods, and ecosystems. Changes to Pakistan’s rainfall and runoff regimes are uncertain, but an increase in drought conditions is likely. Extreme climate events are expected to increase, increasing disaster risk, particularly for vulnerable poor and minority groups. Flooding is expected to affect around 5 million people by 2035-2044 and 1 million annually by 2070-2090. Projections suggest yield declines in key food and cash crops, and temperature increases are likely to strain urban dwellers and outdoor labourers, increasing the risk of heat-related sickness and death.
Climate change is creating uncertainty for Pakistan’s water supplies, especially in the Indus Basin. The Karakoram glaciers are predicted to be impacted by variations in seasonality and yearly rainfall brought on by climate change. The immediate effects of climate change could not be as big as the demand from people and inadequate irrigation and storage infrastructure. Seasonal variations, decreased runoff, and the melting of glaciers are all expected effects of long-term temperature increases. Pakistan’s important concerns are the depletion of reservoirs and the strain on groundwater, significant land degradation, desertification, and dryland expansion due to human activities such as overgrazing, over-exploitation of water resources, over-cultivation, and excessive fertilizer use.
Established in 2019, the Ministry of Climate Change in Pakistan aims to tackle climate change adaptation, enhance energy conservation, and optimize fuel mix usage. Forecasts indicate that shifting weather patterns will result in more severe droughts, heatwaves, and intensified tropical cyclones. To counter these challenges, it is imperative to implement policies aimed at mitigating floods and droughts, curbing greenhouse gas emissions, and adopting adaptation and mitigation strategies. This includes investing in climate-resilient agriculture, implementing water conservation measures, and transitioning towards renewable energy sources.
International collaboration is paramount as addressing the impacts of global warming necessitates collective action to secure a sustainable future for forthcoming generations. Pakistan must address declining agricultural productivity, bolster urban resilience, expedite the transition to sustainable energy and low-carbon transportation, enhance human capital, and align financial policies to support climate initiatives. These efforts entail restructuring subsidies, promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices, reducing energy expenses, and enhancing water, sanitation, and educational facilities.
A comprehensive financing strategy, involving both private sectors and international support, is essential for achieving sustainable and inclusive development. Given Pakistan’s vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change, urgent global action is imperative to avert heatwaves and safeguard lives.
