AT PENPOINT
This is the year of elections, which meant that it was the year in which democracy was to undergo its most rigorous testing, as elections are the basis of democracy. At the beginning of this year, it was noted that 47 countries were scheduled to go to the polls. There were polls happening all over the region as well, starting with Maldivean presidential elections last September, and with parliamentary elections in Bangladesh, Pakistan and India by June.
It was also expected that the UK would have elections, even though they were not due until next year, as it was thought that there might be a slightly early poll, in December. Nobody expected the present poll, which coincided with the Iranian presidential poll precipitated by the untimely death of incumbent Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, or the French parliamentary polls, themselves the result of an unusual presidential dissolution caused by the European Parliament poll results in June.
However, the results, though each reflected the national political dynamic, all reflected a desire for change. As a matter of fact, that seems to have happened in elections left open. Only where there was no competition, or bars were placed on the opposition, did incumbents win big. Where they did, as in India (though it could be said that opposition figures were targeted), there was a reduced majority. That also happened in South Africa, where parliamentary elections forced the African National Congress to form a coalition for a majority.
The latest elections could be called victories for the left. In France and the UK, the left won formally. In Iran, the new President, Masoud Pezeshkian, is considered a reformist, which is another way of saying he is opposed to the religious right, with the hot-button issue being the nuclear programme and the nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which he says Iran must go back to.
His victory must be seen in the context of the protests against the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini in September 2022, their conversion into protests against the hijab which lasted well into 2023, and in which an estimated 551 people were killed. Pezeshkian defeated the standard-bearer of the conservatives who defended the hijab laws, Saeed Jalili, by a margin of 9.4 percent, and 2.8 million votes. His saying that the JCPOA must be revived, played an important part in his being elected but of course, that depends on the USA.
He is not the first reformist to be elected. Hassan Rouhani (2009-2017) was the first. However, it is also significant that Pezeshkian is an ethnic Azeri with a Kurd mother. Mahsa Amini was a Kurd, and the prominence of a non-Iranian is unusual. How much he can achieve while remaining within the system is worth contemplating. The low turnout which was witnessed is also worth considering. In at least one recent election, the spoiling of the ballot was a method of protest, so a low turnout is also bothersome.
One of the interesting things about Iranian politics is the development of a two-party system, one in which there is enough of a difference between reformists and conservatives for there to be some competition.
At the other end of the ideological spectrum, the French parliamentary election was also about reformists, in the sense that there was to be a takeover by the far-right of the reins of government. However, instead the left won a plurality of seats, but the New Popular Front (a name echoing the 1936 Popular Front, the alliance of the leftist parties which gave France its first Socialist government). Again, the French electorate rejected the far right, but for how long?
The next test will be the next presidential election, due in 2027. Twice the far-right has been beaten only by a combination of the left and the centre. Both times, Macron beat Marine Le Pen of the National Front.
Macron himself is something of an outsider, having come in to represent the centre, after the right was taken over by the National Front, and the Socialist Louis Hollande was generally dismissed as a buffoon by the electorate after a disastrous term in office. Hollande in turn had defeated Sarkozy, who lost after one term. Macron will be ineligible to run in 2027, but in 2032, when he will be eligible again, he will be only 54.
The so-called centre once included the right, but one of the trends has been for the far-right to make gains at the expense of the traditional right. That seems to be happening in the UK as well, where the Reform Party won four seats. The wipeout of the Conservatives is probably worse than they faced in 1997, when John Major lost 178 seats as Tony Blair took office. Then as now, the Liberal Democrats made major gains, going from 18 to 46 seats. This time, its performance has been even more impressive, as it went from eight to 71 seats.
Gaza has been identified as a key issue. Both Tories and Labour support the Israeli invasion, causing anguish among Muslim voters, with the result that Labour mainly has suffered, especially in constituencies where Muslims are in a majority. In five constituencies, pro-Palestinian independents beat Labour incumbents.
However, Labour did not win by a landslide. Though it won far many more seats, its vote share of 34 percent is only two percent more than in the last election. This may be the result of the Liberal Democrats drawing away so much of the vote, or it may simply be a collapse of the Conservative vote.
Is vox populi actually the vox Dei? Or is the famous proverb, ‘the voice of the people is the voice of God’ merely a piece of folk wisdom, and actually (as another proverb runs),’the masses are asses’? Even though there are so many elections happening this year, and even though three countries have weighed in ahead of schedule, there is a definite answer in favour.
It seems to be that voters are unable to make a clear choice worldwide. This may well be because all the choices before then are unappetising. Take the example of the USA, where at 82, starting with that disastrous presidential debate, US President Joe Biden has come under increasing scrutiny for competence. Opposing him is Donald Trump, 78. The only protection against senile dementia he offers is that he already suffers from regular dementia.
Pakistan has had its election, and it is supposed to have voted against the incumbent PDM. That of course is to concede the PTI the status it probably craved, that of the opposition, with Imran Khan as an Angry Young Man, though he was just shy of his 71st birthday on the February 9 Election Day.
Apart from the age issue, his handling of the economy when in office was also problematic. Of course, he could claim that he also had to handle the covid-19 epidemic, and his successors were worse. He too reflected a desire for change, both in his original election in 2018, and as well as in February.
However, as the examples this year from around the world seem to show, people want change, but are not getting it. Perhaps that is the nature of elections. They do not provide a final solution, and end up creating fresh problems to replace the ones they have solved, much like the ‘green’ who favours electric vehicles to eliminate vehicles burning fuel; only for them to need polluting thermal power to provide electricity.
Is vox populi actually the vox Dei? Or is the famous proverb, ‘the voice of the people is the voice of God’ merely a piece of folk wisdom, and actually (as another proverb runs),’the masses are asses’? Even though there are so many elections happening this year, and even though three countries have weighed in ahead of schedule, there is a definite answer in favour.
