On November 5th, Americans will head to the polls to elect their next president. Until June 27th, it seemed certain that the race would be a rematch of the 2020 election, with Joe Biden, the Democratic incumbent, facing off against Donald Trump, his Republican predecessor. However, Biden’s disastrous debate performance that night led to immediate concerns among Democrats about his suitability for the job. Under mounting pressure, Biden withdrew from the race on July 21st and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate.
Early polls following Biden’s exit show Harris closing the gap with Trump but still trailing slightly. A YouGov/The Economist poll conducted from July 21st-23rd put Harris at 41% and Trump at 44%, while a New York Times/Siena poll from July 22nd-24th showed Harris at 47% and Trump at 48% among likely voters. As more polls become available, a reliable average will be calculated to provide a clearer picture of the race. For now, candidate favorability ratings are being reported.
Harris has secured enough delegates to win the Democratic National Convention nomination. She now faces the challenge of uniting her party, energizing voters, and countering Trump’s campaign. Biden’s presidency has been marked by high inflation, significant industrial-policy bills, and international turmoil—issues that Republicans will undoubtedly try to associate with Harris as well. However, Harris has a distinct advantage over Biden: her age. At 59, she is more than two decades younger than Biden and 18 years younger than Trump.
Donald Trump faces a daunting record as he campaigns: his supporters attempted to overturn his 2020 election loss, he is facing federal charges related to that scheme, and he has been convicted of felonies from his 2016 presidential campaign. On July 13th, a rally in Pennsylvania turned violent when a 20-year-old man shot at Trump, grazing his ear and killing a bystander. Following this assassination attempt, politicians from across the spectrum called for a reduction in political tensions. Although Trump initially showed uncharacteristic restraint, he has since reverted to his divisive rhetoric in his speeches.
A private news outlet is tracking the race, providing favorability ratings for Trump, Harris, and Biden. The page will soon feature more polls showing potential performance in the popular vote for Harris and Trump, once sufficient data are available. Historical polling data for Biden and Trump, key dates in the race, and candidate biographies are also accessible. Stay informed with the weekday newsletter, The US in Brief, and explore the election tracker hub for contests elsewhere.
The candidatesÂ
Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris, at 59, is over two decades younger than Joe Biden, whom she is set to replace as the Democratic nominee. Her late mother was an endocrinologist from India, and her father is an economist from Jamaica. In California, Harris won stepping-stone elections as a prosecutor by adopting a tough stance on criminal justice issues while appealing to Democrats, and was elected as the state’s attorney general in 2010. Since becoming a senator in 2017, Harris has excelled in debates and hearings, showcasing her litigation skills. She is a figure of institutional politics rather than a visionary or ideologue and has struggled to define herself on the national stage. Her 2020 presidential run faltered badly. As vice president, she bears the burden of the Biden administration’s unpopular record, despite significant legislation to onshore chip manufacturing and invest in green energy. To defeat Trump, Harris will need to directly address his immigration attack lines and present a more ambitious domestic policy agenda than Biden did.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump’s extraordinary campaign follows his equally remarkable term as America’s 45th president, which ended shortly after his supporters staged an armed attack on the Capitol. His alleged role in instigating the attack and broader efforts to overturn the 2020 election results have led to two criminal indictments in federal and Georgia state courts, alongside two other indictments, totaling 91 felony charges. The 78-year-old Trump denies all wrongdoing. A billionaire who made and lost much of his fortune in real estate before becoming a reality-TV star, Trump’s campaign pairs familiar culture-war issues (building a border wall, “left-wing gender insanity”) with fresh grievances against the lawyers prosecuting his cases and the judges overseeing them. Following the July 13th shooting at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, which grazed his ear and killed a bystander, Trump briefly adopted a unifying tone in a speech at the Republican convention in Milwaukee. However, he soon reverted to his usual behavior, hurling insults at his political opponents.
Key Dates in the Presidential Campaign
The presidential campaign is in full swing, and here are the key dates to watch:
August 19th: Democratic National Convention
In Chicago, the Democratic National Convention will formally nominate their presidential candidate, similar to the Republican convention held a month earlier.
September 10th: Second Presidential Debate
The two main candidates will face off a week after Labor Day, a traditional turning point when Americans begin to focus on the election. The first debate in June was marked by Trump’s outrageous falsehoods and Biden’s catastrophic performance, which eventually led to his withdrawal from the race.
November 5th: Election Day
Polls will open on the first Tuesday in November, although many Americans will have already voted through early voting and mail-in ballots. Ballot counting is expected to continue for weeks in some states.
January 6th, 2025: Results Certification
Once all votes are counted, Congress will certify the results. Although typically a formality, the certification was disrupted in 2021 when Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol. Trump is currently on trial for his alleged role in that attack.
January 20th, 2025: Inauguration
The new president will be sworn into office on the steps of the Capitol building in Washington, DC.
