Amidst the Russo-Ukraine war and the Hamas-Israel conflict, the world has turned a blind eye to the geo-political tension in the West Pacific Ocean, known to the world as the Taiwan issue. Strategically located at the center of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, Taiwan Strait is responsible for 21 percent of global trade, making the country the centre of attention in world politics.
The country exports 90 percrnt of advanced chips to the world, increasing the world’s dependency on Taiwan for advancing in the field of technology and sophisticated weapons.
The USA has vowed several times to protect the country from the havoc of its authoritarian neighbour, China, by deploying its soldiers in various military bases around Taiwan. The recent accession of the new President of Taiwan on May 20 as a result of January’s general elections has once again made the issue re-emerge on the global stage by warning China of strong retaliation in case of any aggression.
Moreover, it would impact trade passing through the Taiwan Strait, making countries vulnerable to the mercy of China. Further, Taiwan supplies over 90 percent of advanced chips to the world; the invasion of Taiwan would disrupt the transportation of electronic chips and technology, affecting industries worldwide. Though the Chinese invasion of Taiwan seems easy; however, it would drag backward China and involve not only regional states but the West as well. China needs to think carefully before taking any step.
Consequently, it led to military drills by China around Taiwan in the Western Pacific Ocean, showing its willingness and preparedness for the invasion of Taiwan. However, the question at hand is whether China has gained the potential to invade Taiwan and threaten the US-led western order or not. What would the response of the world be if China invaded Taiwan? Is Taiwan prepared to defend its homeland against authoritarian aggression?
These are the questions in everyone’s mind. To answer, we need to analyze various possibilities coming out of the issue.
According to US-based analysts, XI Jinping, president of the People’s Republic of China, will wait until 2027 to prepare for the swift invasion of Taiwan. Hitherto, China is expanding its power through various initiatives across the world states, increasing its soft power, influence, and presence.
However, the data shows pessimistic results: it shows that the Chinese labour force will shrink by one percent at the end of this decade and its GDP growth will remain at 3.5vpercent, indicating lower Chinese exports to the world and a decrease in its soft power. Therefore, Xi will carefully look for an opportunity to cash in on the One-China policy by invading Taipei and ending the unfinished business of the Chinese civil war.
Prior to discussing the impacts and possibilities of Chinese invasion of Taiwan, it is imperative to weigh the military strength of both states. According to the UN, China leads the world in the number of military personnel, two million active soldiers, the USA the next. On the other side, it ranks at 3 in the global firepower index, whereas Taiwan stands at 24, creating a huge gap between them. However, the latter is armed to the teeth through the assistance of the West in general and the USA in particular.
The defence system of Taiwan includes anti-missile system, naval mines, landing spikes, mobile missile launchers, and many advanced weapons of the USA, which can give a tough time to its archrival China. Additionally, its air bases are located in protected locations, providing an edge and capability to target urban areas of China in case of war.
In the same manner, Nature has also showered its blessings on Taipei by providing a natural defence wall through the mountainous region near the coastal areas towards China. These mountains provide a natural barrier for soldiers to enter Taiwan.
Apart from that, the 140 km long distance of Taiwan Strait is not ideal for an amphibious operation, subject to unpredictable and unfriendly weather, and is often home to natural disasters including typhoons, making it difficult to maintain supply lines. Its narrowness makes it difficult for the soldiers’ fleet to cross the strait without being detected.
Taipei has a porcupine defense system, making the invader think carefully before attacking it. As the cost of Thus the USA will leave no stone unturned to protect Taipei.
The USA calls Taiwan “strategic ambiguity, fostering an environment of uncertainty and making the invader cautious of any attack.” On the flip side, what if China attacks Taiwan; will the invasion be possible? What would be the world’s response then? Whether the world will be plunged into a Third World War or would it be limited to the West Pacific Ocean? Let us unveil various dimensions in case China attacks Taiwan.
To begin with, China will face economic sanctions from the Western-led world order, leaving it vulnerable to the wrath of the West. China would face hardship in securing food as an increasing amount of food that China consumes is imported. Further, it secures energy needs from friendly states such as Saydi Arabia and Russia; however, in case of global sanction, it would suffer to secure the energy needs of its people.
The world has witnessed the case of the Ukraine war where the US-led Western states have imposed stern sanctions on Russia and the latter has lost a large export market in Western Europe. In the case of China, the biggest exporter in the world, it would lose its export market, leading to the shrinking of its economic power. Consequently, labourers in China would lose their jobs, facing economic turndown which might lead to social chaos.
China cannot afford to lose the biggest export market as it aims to secure the top position in the economic power list, stepping down to a lower position would lessen its influence around the world. Moreover, it would prove a trap for China if it attacked Taiwan. “Preventive war theory” justifies the engagement of the enemy in war to prevent it from gaining too much power.
Engaging in conflict would impact its economy, infrastructure, human capital, social fabric, foreign direct investment, and overall development. It would drag China backward and increase the vacuum between her and the USA, benefiting the latter to a large extent.
Besides impacting various domains it would also slow down development projects under the flag of the Belt and Road Initiative. A war-engaged country cannot focus on its development rather it aims to win the war at any cost. Impacting infrastructure projects across various countries would mean reducing the influence of the Chinese in the developing world.
Apart from that, Taiwan is surrounded by various American bases in the region. The US military presence in the Pacific Ocean would create great hurdles for China to invade Taiwan. The US-friendly states include the Philippines, South Korea, Japan, Guam, and Thailand will allow it to ensure their military presence on their lands.
The US would burn the midnight oil to protect Taiwan as it is among a few countries in the region that hold democratic principles. The USA, being an advocate and protector of democracy, would not allow an authoritarian state to destroy a democratic country located in a strategically very important location.
Moreover, it would impact trade passing through the Taiwan Strait, making countries vulnerable to the mercy of China. Further, Taiwan supplies over 90 percent of advanced chips to the world; the invasion of Taiwan would disrupt the transportation of electronic chips and technology, affecting industries worldwide. Though the Chinese invasion of Taiwan seems easy; however, it would drag backward China and involve not only regional states but the West as well. China needs to think carefully before taking any step.
