AT PENPOINT
Israel finds itself fighting a two-front war, something that the military textbooks say must be avoided, reflecting its perception that the Palestinians in the West Bank are part of the same problem as Gaza, and must be shaken somehow.
The Israeli Defence Force is used to fighting two-front wars. In this particular instance, it seems that it has achieved superiority in the Gaza Strip, and does not face any armed resistance whatsoever in the West Bank. However, it should be noted that the West Bank is more important to Israel than the Gaza Strip, because of the settlements it has there. It is also more populous, with three million people against two million.
Israel claims that it fears an attack from the West Bank in response to what it is doing in Gaza. One major difference is that the Palestinian Authority, headed by the PLO, rules the West Bank, and is cooperating with Israel. Even then, Israel has stepped up its raids, with the result that 676 West Bank residents, including 52 children, have been killed, in addition to the 40,700 Gazans killed. The number of Gazans killed may indicate one reason why the Israelis have not started mass killings of the Palestinians in the West Bank. It is not really feasible to kill all Palestinians. Even though that is seemingly being attempted by the IDF in Gaza, it is probably not doable.
The Palestinian Authority had entertained hopes of being handed over the Gaza Strip, it now seems that the IDF has taken on a long-term role, and has announced that a ’governor’ is to be appointed from its ranks, an officer of the rank of brigadier general. It may be that the IDF has an eye on the reconstruction contracts, for it is likely that there will be large sums available for Gaza’s reconstruction, and the IDF wants a snout at the trough.
It is a possibility that Israel might revisit its decision to leave the Gaza Strip to the Palestinians. It might want to plant settlements there, not just to divide it up the way the West Bank is being divided by highways connecting the settlements, but to implant a friendly element among a hostile population.
There has been a finding from the International Court of Justice that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. If so, what is to stop it from committing one in the West Bank? The difficulty in Gaza should indicate that it is off the table for the West Bank. We can brush away the plea that it would be too barbaric. After all, if it is possible to try in Gaza, why would it not in the West Bank. However, there is also the problem of impunity. If Israel is allowed to get away with what it is doing in Gaza, which it seems it is. Its supporters, like the Western powers, have continued their support. The only pause that Israel has had to face is the fact that the Gaza conflict has apparently led to Israelis leaving the country.
One of the factors at work is that a lot of Israelis have dual citizenship, including with the USA, which does accord this privilege to any other country. Therefore, a lot of Israelis have a built-in insurance plan, including sabras (as Israeli-born Israelis are called), based on a second citizenship.
The result is that Israelis have left in record numbers, with half a million leaving in the aftermath of the October 7 attacks. Emigration is down, as is the number of Israelis abroad who intend to come back. This creates further problems for the government, which faces the prospect of a demographic catastrophe. The non-Jewish (mostly Arab, which is to say Palestinian) population of Israel is growing faster than the Jewish population, so unless fresh migration from the rest of the world continues, At present, Israel has a Jewish majority, about 75 percent. Of these, 30 percent are migrants, two-thirds from the West.
There are 15.7 million Jews worldwide, with about five million in Israel. At the time Israel was created, there was great enthusiasm to migrate there, more because of the Holocaust than anything else. Now, it seems, Israel is committing a holocaust of the Palestinians who were the prior residents of that land. Now Israel not only needs to find some way of making those Jews migrate to Israel.
An official projection, based on pre-October 7 trends and made in 2017, showed Arabs inching up to a 23 percent share from the present 21 percent by 2059. However, Israel not only claims to be a democracy, but also practises proportional representation rather than a first-past-the-post system. While discriminating against Arabs, Israel still gives its Arab citizens the has beden ote. The result is already seen in Israeli election results; it becomes difficult to form a government without Arab participation. One reason why Arabs vote as a bloc is because the weight given to the settlers and the Orthodox encourages identity politics. The loss of Jewish population may allow Arabs to develop even more influence, in which case it is safe to predict that they will grow more assertive.
The continuing raids in the West Bank seem to be a desperate flailing, reflecting the fact that it shares with the Gaza invasion the fatal defect of not having clear war aims. That lack of war aims, combined with its ability to concede the political aim of keeping Netanyahu in office, is probably going to cost Israel very dearly.
One option would be for Jews to introduce some form of apartheid, to somehow deprive Arab Israelis of the right to vote, much as South Africa deprived its black population of that right. However, that might not allow Israel to go on describing itself as a democracy.
There have been many consequences of the October 7 attacks, and one of them may be the dilution of Israel’s identity as a Jewish refuge. Immigration into Israel was already affected, and the ‘best and the brightest’ no longer migrate to Israel. The settlers, very often from Eastern Europe, are those who couldn’t really hack it where they were, and are taking a chance at improving their lives.
One problem that Israel has is its government. The Netanyahu government is prolonging the war because that is perhaps the only reason it survives, because while no one wants to change or bring down a war government, Netanyahu is highly unpopular mainly because the Israeli economy has tanked because of the war. Apart from people, there has also been a flight of capital. NIS 26.4 billion ($1 billion) has left Israel. Even pension and provident funds have been getting hold of assets abroad.
Netanyahu does not just want to retain office because of a politician’s desire, but because staying PM is probably the only way he can stave off persecution for corruption. He thus has a vested interest in continuing the war. While the slaughter in Gaza has not led to any settlement there, it has caused much focus on Israeli bad behaviour in Palestine.
It has threatened the whole Zionist project, because it was historically a reaction of the late 19th-century Russian pogroms, and it gained strength from the Holocaust. Now, however, it seems that Zionists are merely doing to the Palestinians what was once done to them. The result is the wave of protest throughout the West.
The continuing raids in the West Bank seem to be a desperate flailing, reflecting the fact that it shares with the Gaza invasion the fatal defect of not having clear war aims. That lack of war aims, combined with its ability to concede the political aim of keeping Netanyahu in office, is probably going to cost Israel very dearly.
