The Harris factor

How Kamala Harris’s Candidacy Could Reshape the 2024 US election

The question of whether the USA is prepared for a female president is nuanced and varied. Following incumbent President Joe Biden’s decision of not running for re-election, Vice President Kamala Harris is set to challenge Donald Trump as the Democratic contender in the 2024 election. Ms Harris is the highest-ranking female official in US history, breaking significant milestones as the first African-American and Asian-American Vice President. Her experience includes working as a lawyer, California’s Attorney General, and a Senator. She has received both acclaim and criticism for her views on criminal justice reform, immigration policies, and global affairs.

Her candidature adds a fresh dimension to the 2024 election, potentially changing the political environment. Notably, President Biden’s endorsement of Ms Harris prompted a large rise in donations within the first 36 hours. Her age, 59, is viewed as both a vulnerability and a strength. She has piqued the interest of younger people, an important demographic for the Democrats. There has been a significant surge in voter registration among younger people (ages 18-34), who traditionally felt disconnected from the democratic process.

Ms Kamala Harris’ candidature has the ability to transform the Democratic Party and the electoral landscape as a whole. It highlights the party’s dedication to diversity and inclusiveness. “I may be the first woman in this office,” she stated during her 2020 victory speech, “but I won’t be the last.” This statement demonstrates her continuous dedication to tearing down barriers and elevating under-represented perspectives. However, owing to continuing sexism, racism, and intersectional discrimination, the USA may be unable to completely embrace a female president from a minority community. The majority of white male voters are likely to find it difficult to relate to and trust a leader who does not match their own identity and experiences, as demonstrated by the 2016 Clinton campaign.

Ms Harris’ candidature has important implications for gender dynamics. As the first female Vice President, her candidature has the potential to influence discussions about gender in leadership. Moreover, female voters support her campaign for reproductive rights, including access to abortion. Her popularity on this topic may garner support from both Republican and Democratic women, perhaps impacting the election outcome.

Ms Harris has demonstrated early indications of gaining substantial support among Black voters and other minority groups. A recent video chat organized by Black women in her favour attracted over 1 million participants and raised $500,000 in just three hours. This impressive mobilization highlights the strong engagement and financial backing from a crucial Democratic demographic. Such significant support underscores the growing influence of these groups in her political campaign and reflects their pivotal role in shaping Democratic electoral strategies.

Additionally, her Indian heritage and strong ties to the Indian-American community might result in a cautious stance toward Pakistan, potentially leading to reduced military funding and increased pressure on Pakistan regarding terrorism and human rights. While Harris may emphasize human rights and democracy, this could lead to more scrutiny of Pakistan’s record while overlooking similar issues in India. Her administration is expected to strengthen US-India relations through enhanced military and defence cooperation, including the sale of advanced weaponry. 

Besides, her experience as a prosecutor and attorney general gives her a unique perspective on crime and safety. Her advocacy for criminal justice reform may appeal to both progressive and centrist voters. Her track record on progressive causes, notably the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, demonstrates her commitment to emerging issues and her preparedness for reform. These ideas might appeal to people who are concerned about crucial matters such as climate change. Nevertheless, Ms Harris’ candidature represents both a challenge and a chance to redefine American leadership and create a more inclusive vision for the country.

Alongside her foreign policy opinions on the US’ ties with China, Ukraine, and Israel, Ms Harris’s position on the crisis in Gaza will also come under intense scrutiny. This aspect of her policy is anticipated to polarize public opinion and spark significant debate, further highlighting the complexities and challenges of her foreign policy stance. Jeremy Scahill, an American activist, author, and journalist, has stated that Ms Harris’ attitude on Israel and Gaza issues was well-established long before she and Mr Biden took office. During her time in the Senate, she established a solid reputation as an Israel supporter. However, she has recently shown concern for the Palestinian crisis, a development that could significantly alter her political positioning and influence in the upcoming elections.

Additionally, her Indian heritage and strong ties to the Indian-American community might result in a cautious stance toward Pakistan, potentially leading to reduced military funding and increased pressure on Pakistan regarding terrorism and human rights. While Harris may emphasize human rights and democracy, this could lead to more scrutiny of Pakistan’s record while overlooking similar issues in India. Her administration is expected to strengthen US-India relations through enhanced military and defence cooperation, including the sale of advanced weaponry. This could upset the regional strategic balance, heighten Pakistan’s security concerns, and prompt it to seek new alliances. Thereby, Pakistan should bolster its own security measures, diversify its international alliances, and enhance its diplomatic engagement to counterbalance the shifting dynamics and address heightened scrutiny from the USA.

Samreen Shahbaz
Samreen Shahbaz
Samreen Shahbaz is a researcher at the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore. She can be reached at [email protected]

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