The recent escalation in terrorism within Pakistan has cast significant doubts on the efficacy of the state’s security measures, especially as the country embarks on one of its most costly counter-terrorism initiatives to date, Operation Azm-e-Istekham (Resolve for Stability). This operation is designed to restore stability in regions plagued by insurgency and terrorism.
However, recent events in Baluchistan, the most volatile and conflict-ridden region of Pakistan, have starkly highlighted the limitations and challenges of this approach. Last week, Baluchistan was the epicenter of a series of meticulously coordinated violent attacks that resulted in the deaths of over 70 individuals and caused extensive damage to critical infrastructure. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), an ethnic separatist group that has been engaged in a protracted insurgency against the state for over a decade, claimed these attacks. The BLA’s recent actions have not only caused immediate harm but have also sent a powerful message about their growing capability and reach.
The emergence of videos online showing convoys of BLA militants openly brandishing weapons and moving unchallenged through various parts of Baluchistan’s westernmost province, where they were seen celebrating with locals, has further exacerbated concerns about the state’s ability to maintain control. These images, combined with the insurgents’ increasing success in closing roads and extending their influence into urban areas, have created a widespread perception that the state is gradually losing its grip on the province. This perception of declining state control is deeply troubling and raises questions about the future stability of Baluchistan and, by extension, Pakistan.
In response to these developments, the Pakistani government, which has historically employed a heavy-handed approach to managing the Baluchistan issue, swiftly convened an emergency meeting of the top national security committee. During this meeting, the government reiterated its commitment to forcefully suppressing those who threaten the region’s peace and stability. The military has already initiated intelligence-based retaliatory operations, aimed at targeting the insurgents with precision.
Additionally, the government has pledged billions of rupees to enhance the counterterrorism capabilities of law enforcement agencies. These measures, however, are not without their complications. For the first time, the federal government has publicly acknowledged a critical shortage of appointed personnel, which is severely hampering its counterterrorism efforts. In an unexpected and controversial move, the government has decided to depute officials from other provinces, particularly Punjab, to take up posts in Baluchistan. This decision has sparked fierce criticism and is widely viewed as an attempt to marginalize the local Baloch population by denying them the governance and policing of their own province.
The federal government’s recent actions have added to the already numerous grievances harbored by the Baloch population against state security agencies. The government’s handling of Baluchistan’s natural resources has also been a point of contention. The Baloch population has repeatedly accused the government of exploiting the province’s resources while failing to provide adequate local employment opportunities, particularly in the context of the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. This project, which is a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economic strategy, has been marred by allegations of corruption and mismanagement, further fueling local discontent.
In a recent escalation of tensions, a Baloch human rights group organized region-wide protests, effectively blocking access to Gwadar city’s Chinese-operated deep-sea port. These protests, which have garnered significant attention, are seen as a direct challenge to the government’s authority and a demand for greater autonomy and rights for the Baloch people. The BLA’s armed attacks appear to be coordinated with these ongoing protests, aiming to pressure the government into addressing the longstanding grievances of the Baloch population.
The timing of these attacks and protests is particularly significant as Pakistan prepares to host a crucial Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in October. The civil-military regime has characterized the recent wave of insurgency as an attempt by hostile foreign elements to sabotage the upcoming summit and has described the protesters as proxies for terrorists, labeling them as the political wing of the Baloch separatist militants. The government’s conflation of non-violent protests with armed militancy has exacerbated the situation and risks further alienating the Baloch population.
This lack of distinction between legitimate expressions of dissent and violent insurgency increases the likelihood of escalating violence in the region. The BLA’s ability to exploit the genuine grievances of the Baloch people has helped legitimize its cause and expand its recruitment efforts.
Another critical factor in the strengthening of the BLA is the increasingly active participation of women in their ranks. The recruitment of women as suicide bombers is a stark indication of how deeply the BLA’s cause has permeated the province’s society. This development also reflects the militants’ growing ability to mobilize and radicalize a broader segment of the population, including women and youth.
In a province where 65% of the population is under the age of 30, the many frustrated, unemployed Baloch youth are prime recruits for the BLA. The involvement of women in the insurgency marks a significant and troubling evolution in the conflict, suggesting that the BLA’s influence is expanding and becoming more deeply rooted in Baloch society.
The government’s reliance on a predominantly military-focused strategy to address the challenges posed by the Baloch uprising is unlikely to succeed in the long term. A more holistic approach is urgently needed—one that incorporates both hard and soft power strategies. This approach should focus on addressing the root causes of unrest, including the implementation of justice reforms, curbing corruption and improving the socioeconomic conditions in Baluchistan. The province’s high poverty and mortality rates, poor literacy levels and insufficient infrastructure and job opportunities are all critical issues that need to be addressed. Failure to do so will likely result in the continued alienation of the Baloch population and play directly into the hands of both internal and external forces seeking to destabilize Pakistan.
The current policies being implemented in Baluchistan are not only unwise but also potentially dangerous. They threaten the integrity of the Pakistani state and are unlikely to bring the desired stability, security and development to the province. If the government continues on its present course, the situation in Baluchistan could deteriorate further, with potentially catastrophic consequences for Pakistan as a whole.
The need for a more nuanced and comprehensive approach to the Baluchistan issue cannot be overstated. The stakes are too high for the government to continue relying solely on military solutions. A sustainable peace in Baluchistan can only be achieved through genuine engagement with the Baloch people, addressing their grievances and providing them with a stake in their own governance and future.
