If Anura Kumara Disayanake had been elected President of Sri Lanka any time before the collapse of the USSR, the win by a Marxist would have caused a minor earthquake. However, now it has been something of an anticlimax, especially after President Dasayanake used his inauguration to reiterate his commitment to keep in with the world. That means he does not want to defy the IMF, which is putting together a $25 billion debt restructuring that will keep Sri Lanka from another default. The default last year led to the fleeing of the incumbent President, rioting and the rise of President Disanayake’s JVP, which presently has only three seats in the country’s 120-member Parliament. He has thus dissolved Parliament and called elections for November 14, a year ahead of time.
The entire region watched very closely to see Sri Lanka in its descent into default-driven chaos. Pakistan in particular saw repeated warnings by ousted PM Imran Khan that Pakistan too would default unless he was brought back to power. Pakistan has seen the businessman’s solution under Shehbaz Sharif, which is to work with the IMF, no matter what the cost. Bangladesh has just begun, under Dr Muammad Younas, what might be described as a microfinance solution. Now Sri Lanka is trying a Marxist solution. It should also be noted that this is the only solution that has resulted from an undisputed election. One of the more interesting moves is President Disayanake’s appointment of Hardini Amarasuriya as Prime Minister. From one point of view, this is nothing new, as she is the third Sri Lankan woman to become PM, and the seventh in South Asia. However, she is the first not to be the widow or daughter of a previous PM.
Of great interest to India and China is which the new government favours. Sri Lanka’s position, just below India in the Indian Ocean, has always made it of great importance in this area, which has been enhanced by China’s confrontation with the USA in the South China Sea. President Disayanake’s previous record makes him pro-China, but India has always tried to bend Sri Lankan governments to its will, even pro-China ones. The final fate of Hambantota, which China had built and financed, should be an indication. Sri Lanka may try to resist Indian domination, in which it will find Pakistan an ally. How the capitalist Mr Sharif gets along with the Marxist Mr Disayanake is yet to be seen, but politics and national interests often make for strange bedfellows.
