A new chapter in the geopolitical landscape is unfolding as India and the United Arab Emirates sign a historic agreement allowing India to operate nuclear power plants in the Gulf. This isn’t just about energy; it’s a bold statement of India’s expanding influence in a region that sits at the crossroads of global trade, security, and energy. For Pakistan, this is not just a news headline— it’s a red flag. As India continues to build strategic alliances across the region, Pakistan’s relative absence from these developments risks undermining its own geopolitical and security interests.
Pakistan also needs to diversify its economic partnerships. While China remains a vital ally, over-reliance on Beijing could limit Islamabad’s ability to manoeuvre diplomatically. By fostering stronger relationships with other key players in the IOR, such as Gulf and ASEAN nations, Pakistan can enhance its geopolitical standing and counterbalance India’s growing influence
India’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean are neither new nor unexpected, but their acceleration in recent years demands attention. The nuclear energy pact with the UAE is more than an energy deal— it’s a step toward deeper strategic ties. This agreement, alongside India’s growing naval presence and its involvement in the I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, and USA) grouping, underscores New Delhi’s intent to project power far beyond its immediate neighbourhood.
Equally significant is India’s partnership with Oman, where New Delhi has secured a special economic zone at the strategic port of Duqm. This port lies at the crossroads of key global shipping routes, making it a critical asset for maritime logistics, naval operations, and power projection. India’s access to Duqm enhances its ability to influence the broader Indian Ocean Region, especially the shipping lanes vital to global energy supplies. With this expanded footprint, India is steadily positioning itself as a central player in the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean— a development that has direct implications for Pakistan’s maritime interests.
India’s growing engagement in the Gulf, especially through naval agreements and energy partnerships, gives it a pivotal role in shaping the future of the IOR. Pakistan, on the other hand, while geographically positioned at the heart of the region, has not effectively leveraged its strategic location. With Duqm’s strategic location near the Strait of Hormuz, India can monitor maritime traffic and potentially disrupt routes vital to Pakistan’s economy, particularly those tied to CPEC.
The prospect of India using Duqm as a naval base would dramatically shift the regional balance of power, threatening Pakistan’s maritime security and diminishing its ability to protect its interests in the Arabian Sea and beyond. Moreover, India’s growing ties with the Gulf nations through economic and military partnerships give it a significant edge. For Pakistan, the lack of a coherent strategy to counterbalance India’s presence in the region is a cause for concern. While Islamabad has focused on its relationship with China, it has yet to fully engage with Gulf nations on maritime security or explore collaborative ventures that could strengthen its position in the IOR.
The rise of India in the Indian Ocean poses several strategic challenges for Pakistan. India’s involvement in the Gulf, particularly with the UAE and Oman, signals a deepening of ties that could marginalize Pakistan in the region. If India continues to expand its influence, it may eventually dominate the key maritime routes that connect the Persian Gulf to South and Southeast Asia.
For Pakistan, the implications are multifold. First, Pakistan’s reliance on Gwadar as a strategic counter to India’s naval dominance could be undermined if India strengthens its presence in Oman. Second, the growing alignment between Gulf nations and India threatens to isolate Pakistan diplomatically, especially as Islamabad has struggled to forge deep, long-term partnerships with the Gulf states beyond remittance flows and occasional financial assistance. Third, India’s growing role in the IOR, combined with its strategic partnerships with the USA and the Gulf nations, raises the prospect of a new regional security architecture in which Pakistan has limited influence.
Pakistan cannot afford to remain passive in the face of these developments. India’s growing influence in the IOR and the Gulf region is reshaping the strategic environment, and Islamabad needs to recalibrate its diplomatic and military approach accordingly. Pakistan must engage Gulf nations on issues of mutual interest, particularly in the realms of energy, trade, and security. A deeper engagement with countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman is essential to ensure that Pakistan is not left out of the evolving regional dynamics.
Maritime security should be a key focus for Pakistan moving forward. While India has been expanding its naval presence, Pakistan’s own naval capabilities need strengthening. Islamabad should explore joint naval exercises and maritime security agreements with its allies in the region to safeguard its interests in the Arabian Sea. Furthermore, Pakistan must actively promote Gwadar as a key logistics hub for Gulf nations, offering it as an alternative route for trade with Central Asia and China.
Pakistan also needs to diversify its economic partnerships. While China remains a vital ally, over-reliance on Beijing could limit Islamabad’s ability to manoeuvre diplomatically. By fostering stronger relationships with other key players in the IOR, such as Gulf and ASEAN nations, Pakistan can enhance its geopolitical standing and counterbalance India’s growing influence.
