A recent nationwide poll has revealed a surprising seven-point shift in favor of former President Donald Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris, leaving even data experts puzzled. Dr. Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, had previously forecasted a win for Harris but is now baffled by Trump’s unexpected lead. Miller, who posts daily electoral vote estimates on his website, The Virtual Tout, noted a sudden shift in the race. As of October 7, Trump held a slight edge with 270 votes compared to Harris’ 268. Now, according to his calculations, Trump and his running mate JD Vance have 275 electoral votes, while Harris and her running mate Tim Walz have 263.
Despite the shift, Miller has not identified any specific event that could explain the drop in support for the Democratic ticket between October 6 and 7. He shared on his website, “We have not identified a single event to explain the drop in end-of-day forecasts.” Miller emphasized that prediction markets are often more reliable than traditional polls. “A betting market isn’t asking people for their opinion—it asks them to put their money on the line. You might not like the outcome, but you believe it will happen,” he explained.
In an interview with Fortune Magazine, Miller said that this election is unique, as it frequently fluctuates between a tossup and a landslide. “The dynamic of this election is that after one candidate jumps ahead, the race eventually returns to being even,” he noted. As November 5th approaches, Miller believes the forecast will continue to toggle between a tossup, though he does not expect Trump’s lead to hold.
According to a Newsweek report, this is Trump’s first national poll lead since September 22, when a Quinnipiac University survey showed him with a 1-point advantage over Harris, 48% to 47%. If the two candidates face off, the survey predicts a 48% tie.
Laura Trump dismisses the polls showing VP Harris leading Trump:
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) October 9, 2024
The polls are absolutely ridiculous. I get slipped beverage napkins every time I get on an airplane saying we can't wait to vote for Trump.
pic.twitter.com/15snTLbCjg
In key battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, Harris holds a slight lead, while Trump maintains a slim advantage in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. Pennsylvania remains a tossup, according to FiveThirtyEight. With the election outcome hinging on these crucial swing states, Trump needs 51 electoral votes to secure a win, while Harris requires 44.
