Israel has taken revenge on Iran by launching an air attack. It is to be hoped that Iran does not respond, for that could ratchet up the tension between the two. Israel was replying to Iran’s launch of missiles and drones, which in turn it did because Israel had launched an airstrike which had killed Hezbollah chief and Iranian ally Hassan Nasrallah. That Israel had done because it had been clashing with Hezbollah ever since it went into the Gaza Strip. To go beyond that would be to go into the whole Palestinian problem, and why Israel even exists. However, it should never be forgotten that there is a cycle of violence in place, and that started when European Jews cast a covetous eye on Palestine even before World Wr I, ans started to migrate there.
However, the Iran-Israel conflict is particularly dangerous because Israel has nuclear weapons (between 90 and 400 warheads) and Iran has a nuclear programme which may potentially have a weapons component. Perhaps adding to the temptation for Israel is the knowledge that it has a limited window of opportunity. Iran may have four weapons’ worth of nuclear material, and is not all that far from manufacturing a weapon. Once it has weapons, the huge Israeli numerical advantage will disappear, because it is a small country offering few targets, thus it needs only a few A-bombs to be turned into a nuclear wasteland. However, one of the problems that both countries face is access. They do not share a border, so the only attack possible is by the air, for Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan, which all have borders with both, are unlikely to give access to either. Because the air is the only route, the temptation to use nuclear bombs and missiles will increase. The USA is at the forefront of non-proliferation efforts, and the emerging situation will be a test of its resolve, particularly since it has shown how ineffectual it is to Israel, and how subservient.
In this situation, Pakistan really does not have any real options. Iran had supported it in both the 1965 and 1971 Wars. It is a neighbour, and there are deep links between the two. Also, the common man’s response to the Israeli aggression in Gaza shows how few friends it has. Pakistan must prepaare to be the sort of friend in need that Iran was over half a century ago.
