Dr Zaheer Abbas
The result of the 2024 election in Indian Occupied Kashmir revealed a substantial change in the social and political landscape of the occupied territory, where the ruling party met with a resounding defeat. The people of occupied Kashmir voted for the first time after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s regime repealed Article 370 of the Indian Constitution in August 2019. The revocation robbed Jammu and Kashmir of its special autonomous status, which it used to maintain its constitution, flag, laws, and exclusive land rights. This led to widespread disenchantment among the Kashmiri people regarding the political, social, and legal implications of this move for their territory.
Many Kashmiris perceived Article 370 as a safeguard for their identity and autonomy. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government portrayed the revocation of the said article as a move to annex Kashmir fully into India, with Pakistan arguing that the move was bound to fail. Islamabad has categorically declared that India’s revocation of Article 370 is a flagrant infringement of United Nations Security Council resolutions on the dispute, especially Resolution 122 (1957), which stipulates that the will of the people will determine the future of the territory through a free and impartial plebiscite conducted under the auspices of the United Nations.
This election is being seen as a barometer to measure the public’s stance on BJP-led policies in occupied Kashmir. Pakistan has rejected the election. As per official results, in the 90-seat legislature, the alliance between the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and the Indian National Congress secured 48 seats. Jammu & Kashmir People’s Democratic Party (JKPDP), another pro-Article 370 party, won three seats. BJP, on the other hand, could only secure 29 seats, with most of them being in Hindu-majority areas. However, the BJP was decimated in the Kashmir valley as it was unable to win a single seat there. This is a strategic setback to PM Modi’s post-2019 ambitions. This shows a stark line marking the Hindu-Muslim divide in occupied Kashmir.
BJP marketed this election as evidence of the return of normalcy to Kashmir, considering that voter turnout reached 63.88 percent, compared to 65.58 percent in 2014. However, analysts see it as a ‘protest vote’ against the brutalities and oppressive policies of India in the occupied territory. The JKNC-Congress alliance and other pro-Article 370 parties have vowed to struggle to restore the said constitutional provision. It is worth mentioning here that such election results strengthen Pakistan’s narrative that the people of Kashmir demand their original identity and autonomy, alongside their right to self-determination as has been guaranteed by the resolutions of the UNSC.
The electoral results provide Pakistan with new evidence to argue its case in international forums, such as the United Nations (UN) and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), to advocate that the mandate of the Kashmiri people is against BJP-imposed oppressive political changes. Being the advocate of the human rights of the Kashmiri people, Pakistan has been raising the issue of human rights violations in the occupied territory.
The result of the 2024 election mirrors the Lok Sabha election of 2019, where the BJP managed to secure two seats in the Hindu-majority Jammu area. However, it was defeated in the Kashmir valley, which is a Muslim-majority region. This trend will continue to shape the political future of the region as the people of Kashmir have put their support behind regional parties that are in favour of Kashmir’s autonomy. This offers Islamabad the diplomatic ammunition it needs to amplify its efforts to gain international support for the struggle of the people of Kashmir against Indian oppression.Â
This election result will be a decisive moment, not only for the occupied Kashmir but for Pakistan as well, as it is a firm supporter of Kashmiris’ right to self-determination claim over the whole of Indian Occupied Kashmir. In 1987, the election was marred with widespread rigging and electoral fraud, which further fuelled the Kashmiri movement for freedom against Indian oppression. Similarly, the 2024 election has also raised concerns about legitimacy and fairness.
Local political parties have accused the BJP of electoral gerrymandering by including 2.3 million non-Kashmiri voters and adding new seats in the local legislature, with most of them being in Hindu-majority areas, to marginalise and disenfranchise the Muslim population of the Occupied Valley. The election results have also highlighted the dissatisfaction of Kashmiris with Indian rule.
The result of the 2024 election mirrors the Lok Sabha election of 2019, where the BJP managed to secure two seats in the Hindu-majority Jammu area. However, it was defeated in the Kashmir valley, which is a Muslim-majority region. This trend will continue to shape the political future of the region as the people of Kashmir have put their support behind regional parties that are in favour of Kashmir’s autonomy. This offers Islamabad the diplomatic ammunition it needs to amplify its efforts to gain international support for the struggle of the people of Kashmir against Indian oppression. The result clearly demonstrates that whenever given the opportunity to express their opinion, the Kashmiris would always reject India.
Dr Zaheer Abbas is an Associate Senior Researcher at the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies, Lahore. He can be reached at [email protected]
