For decades, Pakistan has been among the largest refugee-hosting countries, ranking 4thin the world. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s tradition of hospitality has lately been defied due to persistent socio-economic strain, evolving political challenges, and security concerns. On October 3, 2023, the government of Pakistan officially implemented the Illegal Foreigners’ Repatriation Plan (IFRP), intending to repatriate Afghan refugees back to their homeland. According to the United Nations International Organization of Migration (IOM) report, more than 700,000 Afghans have returned to their homeland since the inaction of the repatriation plan, with 84% being undocumented. In the first phase, the repatriation plan targeted only undocumented Afghans residing in Pakistan, and in the second phase, the government expanded the plan to expel refugees holding Afghan Citizen Cards (ACC) issued by the government of Pakistan. In the third phase, Afghan refugees with proof of Registration (PoR) cards issued by the United Nations Human Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) will also be repatriated.
According to IOM, 1.3 million are PoR cardholders, constituting 60% of total registered Afghan refugees (2.18 million). In July 2024, Pakistan granted legal permission to PoR cardholders to stay in the country until June 30, 2025. Though PoR cardholders have been allowed a reprieve for a brief period, their long-term fate remains uncertain. Some Officials and economists understate the plausible adverse effects of the deportation of refugees on Pakistan’s social and economic dimensions. By classifying all Afghan refugees as a possible risk to Pakistan’s stability, the prospect of harnessing their abilities and economic potential for its advantage. It is imperative to delve into the socio-economic repercussions of the repatriation plan on Afghan refugees, particularly on the registered ones as well as on the host communities in Pakistan. Since many refugees, including PoR cardholders, have lived in this country for decades, curious minds raise the question: are they still migrants, or have they entirely altered into a diverse identity?
On a positive note, such refugees have also made undeniable contributions to Pakistan’s social and economic environment. On the financial or economic front, Afghan refugees make a well-valued contribution to diverse sectors due to their adaptability and resilience. According to the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (SMEDA) report, Afghan refugees serve in restaurants, farming, grocery stores, textile shops, and numerous trading activities. Almost all employed Afghan diaspora work in the informal sector of Pakistan, which is chiefly ignored in formal economic assessments. The informal sector is pivotal in Pakistan’s economy and contributes about 40% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Based on occupation and skills, 60% of the Afghan labor class is unskilled, 5% are skilled workers, 20% are engaged in business or trade, and 15% fall in miscellaneous categories. The repatriation of PoR cardholders will undoubtedly affect their earning and the livelihood of their families, as the majority of them will struggle to secure employment in Afghanistan due to ongoing instability. The expulsion plan also affects wages/labor costs and Pakistan’s labor market productivity.
A recent report by IOM highlighted that the proposed plan has exacerbated the social ramifications, and the welfare of refugees has deteriorated significantly. Already, refugees are experiencing mental and psychological stress merely because of uncertainty. Further, there is widespread fear among PoR cardholders that public services such as healthcare and educational facilities for their children could be redirected or scaled back due to the financial crunch. On the flip side, refugees usually received meager wages than actual and indulged in marginalized jobs. It is reported that the refugees received 20% less than the actual return. Furthermore, there is a continuous rift between the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan, escalating social marginalization even for the refugees with legal status. Each time, they are scrutinized for issues like crime and delinquency, which ultimately aggravate their economic and social services hardships. This stigmatization can lead to a wave of mistrust between the host communities and Afghan refugees.
In a nutshell, the repatriation plan for Afghan refugees would lead to an economic vacuum and disrupt business activities within Pakistan as well as across the border. Though Pakistan’s concerns about security and terrorism are valid, both countries should strive to convert this state of affairs into an opening for bilateral economic integration, peace, and stability. For instance, the bilateral trade between the two countries is currently around $1.5 billion. However, It is estimated that both countries have a trade potential of around $ 8-10 billion. Moreover, the deportation intimidations strain diplomatic relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, as border tensions have escalated several times in the past. A herculean effort is required from both the government of Afghanistan and Pakistan and also from the international communities to develop doable solutions to refugees’ woes. One prime example is the work of the International Centre for Refugees and Migration Studies (ICRMS) in Quetta, Balochistan, a designated research institute providing valuable insights into the social and economic repercussions of refugees’ mobility across various regions. The research hub under the umbrella of UNHCR proposes policies to the concerned authorities and stakeholders for informed decision-making on the legal and humanitarian facets of migrants and refugees. At the government level, instead of fully repatriating Afghan refugees, Pakistan should engage the registered ones, especially the PoR cardholders, by utilizing their potential as representatives of collaboration between the two countries. In such a manner, Pakistan can develop a strong relationship with Afghanistan based on mutual trust, prosperity, and conviction. This approach can benefit both nations and contribute to regional peace and development. In addition, UNHCR is striving hard to address the refugees’ woes. Besides the fundamental assistance provided to the refugees such as finance, food, and shelter, the commission advocates for integrating refugees into the local economy through active contribution rather than dependence. So far, the UNHCR’s efforts in addressing the repatriation plan have been commendable, especially by engaging the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan, however, a further herculean effort is required to achieve a sustainable solution.
