The collapse of the Syrian Army was both sudden and unexpected. However, even before the dust settled, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad fled his capital Damascus ahead of attacking rebels, who announced their arrival and takeover on state-run TV. The rebels had recently launched an offensive from their base in Idlib, but it was the fall of Homs that made Bahar’s position untenable, because the ll of Homs meant that Damascus was cut off from the Mediterranean coastline. Thus came to end one of the enduring non-monarchical dynasties of the Arb world. While Bashar’s father Hafez al-Assad’s took power in 1971, he succeeded him after his death in 2000. Thus Syria is set to have a non-Assad president for the first time in 53 years. Another major change is that the rebels are not Alawites, which is a sect of Shias. The Hayat Tehrir Al-Sham is not just Sunni, but is also designated a terrorist organization, which means that its leader, Abu Muhammad Al-Jawlani, may face difficulties in dealing with the outside world. It is not known how the outside world will react, for the country has been wracked by civil war since 2011. The Hayat itself is descended from the Jubhatun Nusra, which was thought to have Al-Qaeda links. That provides it with a (rather tenuous) link to the Islamic State, which for a brief time controlled large areas of Syrian territory, almost all desert.
The change reflects little gain for the USA, but a major loss for both Iran and Russia, which were both heavily invested in keeping Bashar in power, to the extent that both provided military help. In fact, a very senior figure in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps was killed in an Israeli strike on Iran’s Damascus consulate. Iran had also arranged for Hizbullah fighters to go from Lebanon to Syria and fight for Bashar. However, three developments, all distracting allies from helping him, ensured that no help was forthcoming any longer. Iran got distracted by Israel’s massacre in Gaza. Russia got embroiled in Ukraine, and must now be concerned about its naval base in Latrakia, its only foreign base in the world. Hezbollah was attacked by Israel.
The Middle East may find itself in for a greater shake-up than the Arab Spring. This change may provide Turkey its first opportunity to intervene in the Middle East ever. It also places an Islamist regime in the heart of the Arab world. This is one of those times when Pakistan has no other choice but to maintain a masterful activity, and keep its powder dry.
