It seems that the anti-solarization lobby has been hard hit by the decision of the Punjab and Sindh governments to provide protected consumers solar kits. Thus far, solarization was taking place among the relatively affluent domestic consumer, for he or she did not have to pay (non-existent) generation costs, but did have to put up the capital for generation equipment. Now, thanks to the initiative of the two most populous provinces, that generation equipment is to be devolved even further, to poor people. Instead of working against it, WAPDA should be grateful that it does not have to put up the cost of solarization, and it is likely to retain those consumers as there are still problems to be overcome in the storing of generation excess over consumption. Once that happens, which is only a matter of time, then there will be nothing to stop consumers making an additional investment in what would amount to transmission and dispatch, and gaining total independence of the national grid. Perhaps more worrisome is the prospect of industries going off the grid. That has already begun to happen, with the result that WAPDA is no longer selling expensive electricity to its best customers.
If that trend alone spreads, it will sink WAPDS, as it will not be able to pay the capacity charges. As the burden of capacity charges increases the tariffs, a tipping point will come when the government begins to switch its connections over. The provinces are more so, but all governments have a problem with their power bills, and they are collectively the biggest defaulter. Settling those bills thus becomes a major issue.
There is no use crying over spilt milk and saying that the IPP deals should never have been signed in their present form. They were, nd they are now heading to break the government financially, and take the country into default. However, sticking to obsolete technology despite the compelling financial reasons to opt for solarization is to ignore the facts. The government should realize that virtually no one is solarizing for environmental reasons.That is a welcome side-effect. All are doing so because it is cheaper. The efforts to make it dearer will not benefit WAPDA, though it might harm the consumer. However, now that two provincial governments have stepped to ease the consumers’ lot, it will not be easy to reverse the juggernaut of solarization.
