Pakistan, an agrarian economy heavily reliant on both Rabi and Kharif crops, faces a looming crisis as climate change intensifies. The country’s major crops, including wheat, rice, maize, and sugarcane, are at risk due to rising temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns. These crops are highly sensitive to water quantity and temperature fluctuations, making them vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.
The agriculture sector is a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economy, contributing approximately 24 percent to the Gross Domestic Product. It is the largest employer, providing livelihoods to around 37.4 percent of the labour force. The sector is pivotal for food security and plays a crucial role in rural development and foreign exchange earnings. Major crops like wheat, rice, sugarcane, and maize form the core of this sector, while the livestock sub-sector, including cattle, buffalo, sheep, and goats, also adds significantly to GDP and agricultural value addition. Despite challenges such as climate change and limited access to credit, the sector has shown resilience and adaptability. Recent trends, reported by the Ministry of National Food Security and Research (MNFSR), indicate a steady increase in agricultural growth, with a notable 6.25 percent growth in the sector for the fiscal year 2023-24.
Research models utilizing crop-growth simulations indicate a troubling future for Pakistani agriculture. By 2030, it is estimated that rising temperatures will lead to a 6–10 percent reduction in overall agricultural production. The study specifically predicts a four percent decrease in wheat yield and a substantial 10–12 percent reduction in basmati rice yield across various agro-climatic systems, except for the northern regions of Pakistan. Several agronomic and socioeconomic factors contribute to the vulnerability of crops, including water accessibility, pesticide use, and labor availability due to seasonal variations. Climate-induced changes in rainfall patterns, especially during the crucial summer and Kharif seasons, are imperative for the production and yield of winter (Rabi) crops.
International studies, such as the one conducted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, paint a grim picture for Pakistan’s agricultural future. By 2080, a substantial decline in the yield of major crops, particularly wheat, is anticipated. These findings, available on the World Bank Knowledge Portal, underscore the urgency for substantial adaptive interventions.
The potential rise in food insecurity and malnutrition emerges as a significant consequence of climate change. Unusual weather patterns, catastrophic events, and the destruction of crops and infrastructure can severely impact household earnings, food security, and livelihoods. Coastal regions and river deltas, already vulnerable due to rising sea levels, face additional distress. No doubt, addressing the challenges posed by climate change requires proactive and innovative approaches.
Additionally, the agriculture sector in Pakistan faces several major threats that could significantly impact its productivity and sustainability. Water scarcity is a pressing issue, with declining rainfall and over-exploitation of groundwater resources exacerbated by inefficient water management systems. Climate change poses a severe threat, bringing rising temperatures, unpredictable weather patterns, and extreme events that affect crop yields and livestock productivity, along with increased pest and disease outbreaks. Land degradation, caused by unsustainable farming practices and deforestation, further diminishes soil fertility. Farmers also grapple with limited access to quality seeds, fertilizers, and markets, hindering their productivity.
As climate change continues to pose a significant threat to agriculture in Pakistan, urgent and coordinated efforts are required to mitigate its impact. It is imperative for policymakers, farmers, and communities to work collaboratively to ensure a sustainable and resilient agricultural sector in the face of climate change. By addressing these challenges head-on, Pakistan can work towards a future where agriculture continues to thrive, providing food security and livelihoods for its population despite the growing threats posed by climate change.
Many still rely on outdated farming methods, which result in lower crop yields compared to global standards. Despite various initiatives, inadequate implementation of agricultural reforms and poor post-harvest management lead to significant losses and food wastage. Addressing these threats requires a combination of policy interventions, technological advancements, and community-based solutions to ensure the sustainability and resilience of Pakistan’s agricultural sector.
There are a number of amicable solutions to safeguard Pakistan’s agricultural sector. Introducing and promoting climate-resilient farming techniques, such as precision agriculture, drought-resistant crop varieties, and sustainable water management practices, can make a significant difference. Implementing adaptation initiatives at both governmental and community levels, including early warning systems, climate-smart infrastructure development, and community-based resilience programs, is crucial.
Advocating for environmental justice ensures that vulnerable communities, particularly those in coastal regions and river deltas, receive equitable resources and support to cope with climate-induced challenges. Encouraging and investing in research and development for sustainable agricultural practices, focusing on eco-friendly fertilizers, organic farming, and climate-resilient crop varieties, is also essential. Furthermore, promoting the cultivation of climate-resilient crop varieties and educating farmers on adaptive agricultural practices, along with investing in the development of climate-smart technologies, can enhance overall agricultural productivity.
As climate change continues to pose a significant threat to agriculture in Pakistan, urgent and coordinated efforts are required to mitigate its impact. It is imperative for policymakers, farmers, and communities to work collaboratively to ensure a sustainable and resilient agricultural sector in the face of climate change. By addressing these challenges head-on, Pakistan can work towards a future where agriculture continues to thrive, providing food security and livelihoods for its population despite the growing threats posed by climate change.
